preseason unranked teams in the tournament as high seeds

[Connhomer99]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FrMZMhDaUAAMFFx.jpg

the average amount of wins for these types of teams arent very good, no final 4 appearances, although in our 2002 and 1990 seasons we help bring up the scores a little with respectable elite 8 runs in such a circumstance.

think this is a trend worth looking at or not enough data??

 

[Connhomer99]

im just excited as you guys are lol

 

[Waquoit]

Purdue?

 

[auror]

It's a real trend. The pre-season AP Poll has as much or more predictive power for March Madness than the Final AP poll, which is extremely counter-intuitive. But the pre-season AP Poll is basically all about roster talent and coach strength. In March, your Joes matter.

If Duke plays Marquette in the Elite 8, this will come starkly into focus.

 

[UConNick]

As I recall there was once a 3 seed that was unranked preseason and went on to win the whole thing.

Actually, stepping back from the UConn perspective, I believe this is also true of Cuse in 03 and Florida in 06. Interesting how the correlation doesn’t hold up when you go further down the seed line.

 

[HuskyHawk]

It's a real trend. The pre-season AP Poll has as much or more predictive power for March Madness than the Final AP poll, which is extremely counter-intuitive. But the pre-season AP Poll is basically all about roster talent and coach strength. In March, your Joes matter.

If Duke plays Marquette in the Elite 8, this will come starkly into focus.

I get the point, but the preseason poll tends to overrate freshman talent and underestimate experience. I also think the portal changes things. Look at Kolek and Boum for example. The preseason poll is now struggling to accurately gauge the impact of transfers.

Duke is the classic young talented team gaining experience and becoming better than their seed. Kentucky is usually that way.

 

[auror]

I get the point, but the preseason poll tends to overrate freshman talent and underestimate experience. I also think the portal changes things. Look at Kolek and Boum for example. The preseason poll is now struggling to accurately gauge the impact of transfers.

Duke is the classic young talented team gaining experience and becoming better than their seed. Kentucky is usually that way.

Well that's the thing. The freshmen led teams tend to do better in the tournament than they did in the regular season. They're overrated until it actually makes sense. Not every time, but think of 2014 Kentucky, some of the recent Duke teams that went to E8+ despite non-league winning regular seasons, etc.

The portal is definitely a wildcard in this and many other historical trend stats.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Well that's the thing. The freshmen led teams tend to do better in the tournament than they did in the regular season. They're overrated until it actually makes sense. Not every time, but think of 2014 Kentucky, some of the recent Duke teams that went to E8+ despite non-league winning regular seasons, etc.

The portal is definitely a wildcard in this and many other historical trend stats.

Yes, sometimes they click and figure it out, but sometimes their lack of experience shows. I do always expect Duke and Kentucky to be better late than they are early. Nobody else is really as reliant on freshmen for so much of the roster.

 

[HuskyBaggins]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FrMZMhDaUAAMFFx.jpg

the average amount of wins for these types of teams arent very good, no final 4 appearances, although in our 2002 and 1990 seasons we help bring up the scores a little with respectable elite 8 runs in such a circumstance.

think this is a trend worth looking at or not enough data??

At some point, having a hall of fame coach has to skew the results some...

 

[caw]

I get the point, but the preseason poll tends to overrate freshman talent and underestimate experience. I also think the portal changes things. Look at Kolek and Boum for example. The preseason poll is now struggling to accurately gauge the impact of transfers.

Duke is the classic young talented team gaining experience and becoming better than their seed. Kentucky is usually that way.

Don't underestimate the COVID extra year either. That combined with the portal and it's been an interesting year, and will be again next year probably.

It will further change if/when the NBA allows high school draftees again.