Preseason AP rankings compared to performance

[undersized]

I'm not offering commentary on who underperformed, overperformed, etc. Too much to factor in with injuries and everything. Just offering the data for your viewing.

1	South Carolina	Final 4; SEC champs
2	Stanford	Round of 32; Pac 12 regular season co-champs
3	Texas	Round of 32; Big 12 regular season champs
4	Iowa	Final 4; Big 10 tournament champs
5	Tennessee	Sweet 16
6	Connecticut	Sweet 16; Big East champs
7	Louisville	Elite 8
8	Iowa State	Round of 64; Big 12 tourney champs
9	Notre Dame	Sweet 16; ACC regular season champs
10	NC State	Round of 64
11	Indiana	Round of 32; Big 10 regular season champs
12	North Carolina	Round of 32
13	Virginia Tech	Final 4; ACC tournament champs
14	Ohio State	Elite 8
15	Oklahoma	Round of 32
16	LSU	Final 4
17	Maryland	Elite 8
18	Baylor	Round of 32
19	Arizona	Round of 32
20	Oregon	WNIT
21	Creighton	Round of 64
22	Nebraska	WNIT
23	South Dakota State	Round of 32; Summit champs
24	Princeton	Round of 32
25	Michigan	Round of 32
RV	Utah	Sweet 16; Pac 12 regular season co-champs
RV	UCLA	Sweet 16
RV	Kansas	WNIT
RV	Villanova	Sweet 16
RV	DePaul	--
RV	Georgia	Round of 32
RV	Belmont	WNIT
RV	Miami (FL)	Elite 8
RV	South Dakota	--
RV	Kansas State	WNIT
RV	Mississippi	Sweet 16
RV	BYU	WNIT
RV	Arkansas	WNIT
RV	Florida	WNIT
RV	Gonzaga	Round of 64; WCC regular season champs
RV	South Florida	Round of 32; American champs
RV	Alabama	Round of 64
RV	Duke	Round of 32
RV	UCF	--
RV	Washington State	Round of 64; Pac 12 tournament champs

Other:

No votes received	Colorado	Sweet 16
No votes received	MTSU	Round of 64; Top 25 AP ranking; CUSA champs
No votes received	Florida Gulf Coast	Round of 32; ASUN champs
No votes received	Toledo	Round of 32; MAC champs
No votes received	Mississippi State	Round of 32

 

[bbsamjj]

A few thoughts:

Texas, TN, and Louisville all started the season with high expectations and completely flunked out to begin the year. They all, to varying degrees, regained some respect. TX was co-B12 champions; TN made it to Sweet 16 and SEC Final; Louisville had great run to Elite 8. TX and TN also dealt with major injuries to starters.

While Iowa State and NC State had injuries, and ISU did win the B12 tournament, it seemed like they were never able to get it together in a consistent way this year.

PAC 12 had a lot of teams undervalued to begin the year--UCLA, Utah, Colorado all made Sweet 16 and were consistent presence in rankings.

 

[BRS24]

This brings back memories of my HS track team. Our coach used to say "on paper..." when he tried to predict who would place for points in each event. We started to respond to him "we bad" and laughed.

For WBB this season, I still think some teams get the AL football treatment, while other legit strong teams are dismissed for reasons such as lack of exposure, etc. For some teams, the issues were there for the whole season, Stanford being an example, however many looked past those, perhaps based on Stanford's history.

UConn was #2 preseason, then Paige's injury impacted regular season ranking and put us at #6, dropped to #9 in Dec, then rose a bit, had some ugly spots, finished strong in BET, however who can say where the team really should have been ranked through all of this?

 

[MSSportsGuy]

Thanks for this metric. It's a good tool to reflect on.

Honestly, there are just a few that were misses. TX and TN were both clearly over ranked but it's not like either completely crashed and burned. NCSU had injuries and issues and there was no surprise they left the tournament early.

Clearly VT and LSU were under ranked. No one will forgive Kim's schedule but her team is one of the last four standing. I suspect voters and pollsters expected Owusu to play a more significant role for VT than has happened and yet here they are. That's a testament to Brooks as a coach and the leadership on that team.

 

[amb3096]

Thanks for this metric. It's a good tool to reflect on.

Honestly, there are just a few that were misses. TX and TN were both clearly over ranked but it's not like either completely crashed and burned. NCSU had injuries and issues and there was no surprise they left the tournament early.

Texas lost 2 starters for most of the season and Tennessee lost their starting center, so it's a little unfair to say they were over-ranked based on who was projected to be on the team. Tennessee finished the season strong, but they clearly far from being a top 4 team without Tamari Key.

 

[MSSportsGuy]

Texas lost 2 starters for most of the season and Tennessee lost their starting center, so it's a little unfair to say they were over-ranked based on who was projected to be on the team. Tennessee finished the season strong, but they clearly far from being a top 4 team without Tamari Key.

Point taken. Also I can admit I thought Iowa was way too high to start the year. Clearly shows how much I know lol.

 

[bbsamjj]

This brings back memories of my HS track team. Our coach used to say "on paper..." when he tried to predict who would place for points in each event. We started to respond to him "we bad" and laughed.

For WBB this season, I still think some teams get the AL football treatment, while other legit strong teams are dismissed for reasons such as lack of exposure, etc. For some teams, the issues were there for the whole season, Stanford being an example, however many looked past those, perhaps based on Stanford's history.

UConn was #2 preseason, then Paige's injury impacted regular season ranking and put us at #6, dropped to #9 in Dec, then rose a bit, had some ugly spots, finished strong in BET, however who can say where the team really should have been ranked through all of this?

Stanford had issues all year, but they still had wins over UCLA (twice), Utah, Arizona, Colorado, Gonzaga, Tennessee. They also "should" have beat South Carolina at home and probably came closest to anyone this year in hanging with them (along with Ole Miss in Ole Miss). But the one-and-done format is unforgiving if you're not at top of your game come March.

 

[VA Huskie]

Texas lost 2 starters for most of the season and Tennessee lost their starting center, so it's a little unfair to say they were over-ranked based on who was projected to be on the team. Tennessee finished the season strong, but they clearly far from being a top 4 team without Tamari Key.

If I recall, Tennessee was underperforming with Key. I think they had a better record after she had to stop playing. Of course they did have a tough early year schedule.

 

[ucbart]

Wow! Louisville took a long road from #7 to Elite 8, huh?

 

[amb3096]

If I recall, Tennessee was underperforming with Key. I think they had a better record after she had to stop playing. Of course they did have a tough early year schedule.

Key was also not well before she got shut down for the season. She was playing with undiagnosed blood clots in her lungs, and that affected her play. She was far from the player she was last year. They also had some chemistry issues with bringing Jackson and Powell into the fold, but the loss of Key really lowered their ceiling. A healthy Key can completely change the game with her defensive skills.

 

[DefenseBB]

Stanford had issues all year, but they still had wins over UCLA (twice), Utah, Arizona, Colorado, Gonzaga, Tennessee. They also "should" have beat South Carolina at home and probably came closest to anyone this year in hanging with them (along with Ole Miss in Ole Miss). But the one-and-done format is unforgiving if you're not at top of your game come March.

Wait, what? Stanford did not have issues all year unless you want to call the fact that Tara had no true and experienced point guard to run the offense an issue. This was exactly the returning team she had planned to have the whole time. They underachieved.
Issues usually means injuries, coaching changes or items out of the programs control.
If you mean “chemistry issues” than “Maybe” is my retort but the team looked
Good at times and simply a poor shooting team at times. Not sure I would call any it “issues”.

 

[bbsamjj]

By "issues" i meant offensive issues. They won a lot more games in the 60s and even 50s than they were used to. You're right, likely because they didn't have an experienced PG, but it didn't seem to necessarily get better throughout the season. Tara never seemed to find the right combo to make the team tick offensively, which is unique for her.