Preemptively ranting about the committee | The Boneyard

Preemptively ranting about the committee

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Pardon the deviation from the Ollie saga, but I'm already angry about the living contradiction that is the NCAA Tournament selection committee. They glorify the "human component" and value the "basketball people" on the committee, because apparently, statisticians and odds-makers are not qualified to rank the field despite doing that sort of thing for a living. Let's look at some of the outright crime that is being forecast for tomorrow:

Xavier is apparently LOCKED FOR A ONE SEED

This is where one can argue that relying strictly on the good old RPI will lead you astray. The Musketeers are no strangers to the formula and scheduled only two games against opponents ranking below 200 in the RPI. They piled up a staggering 10 victories over teams ranked 51-100 and won the conference title despite being swept by the only other ranked team. In total, they have ONE win against top 25 competition (Cincinnati at home way back in December) and place 14th on KenPom. The analytics suggest that their profile is closer to that of a four seed and they may very conceivably open as underdogs against whoever they draw in the sweet sixteen. Madness.

Rhode Island is an eight and Michigan State is a four despite having virtually the same resume

See if you can spot the difference:

Rhody - #14 RPI, 1-3 vs. top 25, 3-4 vs. top 50

MSU - #15 RPI, 2-4 vs. top 25, 2-4 vs. top 50

When you add in other relevant data, it becomes clear that Michigan State is far better. But if we're going to reward Xavier for gaming the RPI, we should be consistent, right?

What to do with Arizona?

So, uh, here is one where they can either be complete hypocrites or they can stay true to their word and just get slammed by everyone for 48 straight hours. This is a team that some, myself included, had preseason #1. Their roster is silly loaded...and that was before they signed the best big man prospect since maybe Shaq. The problem is that they stumbled around OOC (they finished 8th out of 8 in their preseason tournament) and then dropped four more games in what a lot of metrics ranked the 7th best conference. They're currently 18th in RPI (update before tonight's win over #34 USC) and 21st on KenPom. They have zero victories over top 25 teams. There is objectively no reason to seed them as better than a four (I know some of their players have missed a couple games, but nobody else is being extended that benefit of the doubt).

There are more examples but you get the point. It's one conflicting data point after another, and while you can observe some effort on the part of the committee to meld them together, the absence of a universal formula - even if you're only using it to cluster teams to preserve the tension of the selection show - leaves the process vulnerable to bias and human error.
 
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And middle tennesee is being considered for an at large bid when they lost their conference tourney, but all the other small conference teams MUST win their conference tournament to get in. What a complete joke - Also, why is the Creighton Athletics director on the committee? WTF? Isn't that a conflict of interest?
 

Stainmaster

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And middle tennesee is being considered for an at large bid when they lost their conference tourney, but all the other small conference teams MUST win their conference tournament to get in. What a complete joke - Also, why is the Creighton Athletics director on the committee? WTF? Isn't that a conflict of interest?

There have always been ADs on the committee. Somebody please correct me if I am wrong, but I think they leave the room whenever their teams are being discussed.
 
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Should be the last year of the TOO. #smallvictories

You gotta use quadrants instead of top x wins though. On basis of quadrants, I'd make Kansas and UNC the 1s over Xavier for far superior Q1 wins and winning %.
 
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Oklahoma will weasel their way in, which is a travesty. 18-13, 4-11 in their last 15 games, under .500 in the Big 12.
 

storrsroars

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And middle tennesee is being considered for an at large bid when they lost their conference tourney, but all the other small conference teams MUST win their conference tournament to get in. What a complete joke - Also, why is the Creighton Athletics director on the committee? WTF? Isn't that a conflict of interest?

33 RPI/52 KenPom certainly puts them in the conversation as a legit bubble team. Moreso than say, Syracuse.
 

kobe

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Davidson just stole a spot, hopefully at the expense of Syracuse, Louisville or Notre Dame.
Unfortunately it probably will be at the expense of their conference mate St. Bonaventure
 

gtcam

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Unfortunately it probably will be at the expense of their conference mate St. Bonaventure
Probably at the expense of his brother's team - ASU
tanking at the end of the year seems to be a Hurley thing
 
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At least they spread out Cincy/WSU/Houston. Figured they would put them all in the same bracket. And the seedings were pretty good.
 
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Last X games is not a committee criteria. It doesn't have more predictive power than the full resume (barring major injury). Ignore anyone who brings it up.
 
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One more opportunity for the media to knob slobber all over Trae Young for one more game. Okie State definitely deserved it over OU. Lon Kruger has learned the pitfall of turning your team over to a freshman and getting out of his way. But hey, at least OU got on espn all the time.
 
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One more opportunity for the media to knob slobber all over Trae Young for one more game. Okie State definitely deserved it over OU. Lon Kruger has learned the pitfall of turning your team over to a freshman and getting out of his way. But hey, at least OU got on espn all the time.

OK St worse than OK in KenPom, SOR, BPI, RPI. Had same conference record.

This is a common pundit take and it's dumb.
 
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OK St worse than OK in KenPom, SOR, BPI, RPI. Had same conference record.

This is a common pundit take and it's dumb.


Well, this common dumb pundit has seen them both play quite a bit, and OSU is ten times the team OU is. I don't care what KenPom, SOR, RIP, MIA or any other acronyms might say. OSU knocked OU out in the first round of the Big XII tourney before losing to Kansas. I think that should have put them over OU.
 
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The committee really did a bad job this year. I really think they need to be more clear and coherent with the metrics they use. This quadrant business is, as many coaches say, unclear and unfair to mid major teams.

Personally I think a .500 or better conference record should be required to make the field. Even setting a limit on minimum wins, such as 20.

Still shocked Bama, Cuse and Oklahoma got in, well, until you consider why. But over solid teams like USC, St. Marys, Ok State. No justice for those teams.
 
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Well, this common dumb pundit has seen them both play quite a bit, and OSU is ten times the team OU is. I don't care what KenPom, SOR, RIP, MIA or any other acronyms might say. OSU knocked OU out in the first round of the Big XII tourney before losing to Kansas. I think that should have put them over OU.

:rolleyes:

OK St. won 1 out of every 3 tough games it played. Even Syracuse did better than that.
 
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I don't really have any problem with Oklahoma getting, but how does Alabama at 19-15 get in and get a 9 seed??? LMAO
 
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I don't really have any problem with Oklahoma getting, but how does Alabama at 19-15 get in and get a 9 seed??? LMAO

Pretty mystifying. I'm guessing committee valued their 7 Q1 wins (only 6 teams total had more), more than their 3 Q3 losses.
 
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Xaiver as a 1 seed makes no sense to me. They lost to PC 2/3 times. They got trashed by Nova twice. And trashed by ASU. If they won their conference tourney, sure. It just feels like they are putting these brackets together a week+ ago and making minor tweeks based on auto qualifiers messing with them. Can't be bothered to move a 1 seed after they set it up.
 

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