Predictions and info for UConn - PSU

[Icebear]

-UConn will not hold PSU to 26 points, PSU will not score 90 against UConn.
-PSU will score more than 45, UConn will score more 65.
-Geno will use 6-7 players unless up by 20, Coquese will use 8-9 even if for very brief minutes at any point in the game.
-Nikki Greene will be in foul trouble, but UConn will be surprised and challenged by PSU's size inside. Nikki Greene 6'4", Tori Waldner 6'5", Talia East 6'3", Marissa Wolff, Mia Nickson, Ariel Edwards all 6'2".
-UConn will need to control PSU's 3 point shooting from Lucas, Bennett, and Gray. If unchallenged Lucas just does not miss. But other than an occasional 3 by Edwards those are the only ones you need to cover on the perimeter.
-Maggie Lucas will not miss more than 1 foul shot in the game, don't let her get to the line. She was 11-11 agaInst LSU and made almost 25 in a row during the season. She is now shooting 89.4% from the line.
-Outside of Greene or Bennett whose shot has faded with the wear and tear of playing large minutes as the point guard (34.9 minutes/game) try not to send any starter from PSU to the line they were 25-29 last night. Gray, also, shoots 85% on FTs.
- Mia Nickson the transfer from BC is a warrior. She is tough on the boards and must be kept off the offensive boards.
-In many ways of style PSU is similar, as a problem, to last year's Stanford team.

PSU is a schizoid team with two distinct personalities, it has gone over 100 several times this year including a win over UNC 103-80 and has won several lower scoring games, as well, holding teams in the 50s and low 60s playing half court ball but nothing like UConn's ability to hold teams in the 40s let alone 26. They can be put into foul trouble having almost 100 more on the season than UConn, 568-475, on the other end they shoot 75.3% on FTs as a team.


Ariel Edwards and Marissa Wolff are both finding their way back into the line up from injuries. Ariel had 15 points last night in 18 minutes. Wolff's limited use has been for lingering concussion but she has been a starter in the past and is trusted.

 

[Sonny44]

Wow, nice post.

 

[cohenzone]

For Icebear - Not having seen PSU before last night, and at that only in glimpses, is there any take away from the fact that they struggled to beat LSU? Did they play their best?

To me, if UConn has a weakness, it is that the scoring options are too few when both KF and CD are on the floor together (not to mention that TH is ailing some right now). Of course that changes when KML is thrown into the mix. How well can PSU manage UConn's offense if both play their normal games? The Big 10 teams as a group haven't been all that impressive.

As an aside, assuming a kid wants to vie for championships, why would a high level talent want to play for Foster? He does less with more (at least "more" per hs rankings) on a regular basis than just about any coach in the game.

 

[Icebear]

Last night was a very typical of this PSU team. They do not, generally, put away teams early. Neither do they go away when behind. They have come back from 10-15 down several times this year. In that there lies a danger for this UConn team because we have let several teams back into games after breaking out into a 10-15 point lead. In the first half missing Bentley was critical.

I expect times of ugly chaos on Sunday. PSU will want to play fast and UConn has to make sure they don't get sucked into too fast a game. The key to me is UConn forcing PSU into the half court game. Scoring options for UConn are not likely to be the problem and I my long stated opinion rarely are. UConn players, genrally, score as necessary if not one of the first three options and KML will see plenty of time on the court.

All season long PSU has had the least typical Big Ten team and I think it has shown in the tourney.

The match up between CD and Lucas even if not direct will be interesting to watch since they are close friends and played together at Germantown. They, also, practiced together during CD's rehab and I think Lucas really benefitted from that adding several skills to her game and a willingness to do many of the smaller grunt things this year.

 

[bruinbball]

Last night was a very typical of this PSU team. They do not, generally, put away teams earlier. Neither do they go away when behind. They have come back from 10-15 down several times this year. In that there lies a danger for this UConn team because we have let several teams back into games after breaking out into a 10-15 point lead.

I expect times of ugly chaos on Sunday. PSU will want to play fast and UConn has to make sure they don't get sucked into too fast a game. The key to me is UConn forcing PSU into the half court game. Scoring options for UConn are not likely to be the problem and I my long stated opinion rarely are. UConn players, genrally, score as necessary if not one of the first three options and KML will see plenty of time on the court.

All season long PSU has had the least typical Big Ten team and I think it has shown in the tourney.

The match up between CD and Lucas even if not direct will be interesting to watch since they are close friends and played together at Germantown. They, also, practiced together during CD's rehab and I think Lucas really benefitted from that adding several skills to her game and a willingness to do many of the smaller grunt things this year.

I posted this on another thread prior to reading your posts:

If Lucas, Bentley and Gray are not hot from 3 land, we should win comfortably 30-40. If one or two are hitting consistently, it should be 15-20 point win. If all three are hitting it will be a tight game. Dolson should completely neutralize and have her way with Greene in the post - she also has a tendancy to foul (some bad fouls) 113 fouls on the year (Dolson has 60). While Penn State likes to play fast, they will take some bad shots and have some lapses on D. Bentley is a thief but can be burnt if she does not stick to her assignment. I see an 18-22 point win, let's say 74-55.

I think we tend to agree. Nickson will be a factor. We size advantages over the guards with Lucas being the tallest of their main three at 5'9". We will need good ball handlers on the floor but I don't think CW has them press, because that will lead to some easy shots and I think vice versa if our press is not effective against them.

 

[Icebear]

Yes, Bentley I didn't recognize my auto speller was changing it to Bennett until just now.

I think we agree very much.

 

[DaddyChoc]

(wiping the sweat off my forehead) thought the game was tonight.

 

[alexrgct]

Can we talk a little about penn state's defense? They just gave up 80 points to a team that reached that plateau exactly three times all season: against Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Alabama, and Ole Miss.

If they're not stellar defensively, can they keep UConn from outscoring them by a significant margin?

One more sidenote about LSU: cool story that Caldwell had her baby and coached the tourney, but LSU didn't have a stellar couple of games. As someone who has two young children, I remember what it was like with a couple weeks old infant, and I have a very hard time believing she was on top of her game. Just an opinion, but infants demand everything you've got and then some. It's a huge shock to the system, especially if you've never been there before.

 

[Icebear]

Funny thing is they can play good defense for long stretches but if it is their choice and a team wants to run they prefer not to play D and to run with them. I think UConn is better served forcing it into a ball control game.

PSU has held teams scoreless for 13 minutes at the end of games during comebacks. It is the lack of game long commitment possession by possession that is lacking not the ability.

 

[doggydaddy]

Thanks Padre. Love all the information. If I write up a game analysis, your's will be the first source of information.

A few questions and comments based on my limited (3 games) viewing of PSU and a little box score analysis.

-Geno will use 6-7 players unless up by 20, Coquese will use 8-9 even if for very brief minutes at any point in the game.
Well, Geno has incorporated Stokes and I don't think that is going to change for the remaining games, so they are in a 7-8 player rotation with Banks the 8th.

-Nikki Greene will be in foul trouble, but UConn will be surprised and challenged by PSU's size inside. Nikki Greene 6'4", Tori Waldner 6'5", Talia East 6'3", Marissa Wolff, Mia Nickson, Ariel Edwards all 6'2".

Waldner and Wolfe don't appear to have any impact on the game. In the 2 Big 10 tourney and 2 NCAA games to date, Waldner has played a total of 16 minutes with zero points and 2 rebounds. Wolfe has played 14 minutes with 5 points and 4 rebound. East started in the Big 10 tourney but moved to the bench once Edwards was available to play. In the NCAA's East has played 18 monutes and score 2 points with 5 rebounds. That is a total of 36 minutes in the NCAA's for East, Waldner and Wolfe, scoring 5 points with 8 rebounds in 2 games.

If Green is in foul trouble, PSU will struggle. And they were outrebounded by LSU by 14.

-Outside of Greene or Bennett whose shot has faded with the wear and tear of playing large minutes as the point guard (34.9 minutes/game) try not to send any starter from PSU to the line they were 25-29 last night. Gray, also, shoots 85% on FTs.

Thankfully, UConn doesn't foul a lot.

-In many ways of style PSU is similar, as a problem, to last year's Stanford team.
Style, yes, but I don't see any Pederson, Pohlen (Lucas?) and O sisters on this team.

Love the matchup from a UConn perspective. PSU's strength is clearly their guard play and they are going against Faris, Doty, Lewis and Hartley. I think that Stokes will have another good game. 4 full days for Geno and staff to review film and gameplan for Lucas? Feeling pretty good.

 

[HGN]

Thanks IceBear........I liked the game analysis.

 

[jsloanjr]

Geno is the best at taking their best players away and making the others beat you......PSU has not played a team that plays 40 minutes of in your face defense and forces you into bad shoots and turnovers.

UCONN 78 Penn State 54........I am a PSU Alum.

 

[Icebear]

Geno is the best at taking their best players away and making the others beat you......PSU has not played a team that plays 40 minutes of in your face defense and forces you into bad shoots and turnovers.

UCONN 78 Penn State 54........I am a PSU Alum.

I agree and I expect UConn by twenty or more but the question is how to best accomplish the most predictable win and I think slowing the game down forcing PSU into a half court game yields the most predictable win. UConn is more than capable of beating PSU by 20 in a road race but it may, also, play to PSU's favor, too, if it is much harder to pick up the spot up 3 point shooters in the chaos or to stop Alex Bentley from getting to the rim.

I expect us to put Nikki Greene into foul trouble although she has managed her game better lately. She is incredibly strong, however, and could put Stef on the bench, too.

 

[DobbsRover2]

PSU has some interesting stats. Although they are very good in both in defense for FG% (27th) and 3-pt FG% (17th), they rank back in the second half of teams in scoring defense at 177th. That is odd. This is likely due to a more uptempo pace in games and also for the Lions' proclivity to foul a hell of a lot and give up an average 13 made FTs a game (as opposed to UConn's 9). They score a lot without turning the ball over much, and though they shoot the 3 extremely well, they don't shoot enough of them to get that many. They don't get many assists but have a good A\TO ration because of the few turnovers. And yes they shoot the FTs well, though not as well as UConn, who does not foul much. They are average in rebounds, blocks, and steals.

Interesting matchup, with seemingly UConn likely having a big to moderate edge in most areas. At the FT line, PSU is used to scoring 16 ppg from the stripe, and UConn gives up an average of 9 ppg there. We'll see how that works out.

 

[Icebear]

Please realize I fully expect UConn to dominate this game. I am speaking only of relative points of play and comparison.

Thanks Padre. Love all the information. If I write up a game analysis, your's will be the first source of information.

A few questions and comments based on my limited (3 games) viewing of PSU and a little box score analysis.

-Geno will use 6-7 players unless up by 20, Coquese will use 8-9 even if for very brief minutes at any point in the game.
Well, Geno has incorporated Stokes and I don't think that is going to change for the remaining games, so they are in a 7-8 player rotation with Banks the 8th.
I don't consider Banks a reliable 8th yet.

-Nikki Greene will be in foul trouble, but UConn will be surprised and challenged by PSU's size inside. Nikki Greene 6'4", Tori Waldner 6'5", Talia East 6'3", Marissa Wolff, Mia Nickson, Ariel Edwards all 6'2".

Waldner and Wolfe don't appear to have any impact on the game. In the 2 Big 10 tourney and 2 NCAA games to date, Waldner has played a total of 16 minutes with zero points and 2 rebounds. Wolfe has played 14 minutes with 5 points and 4 rebound. East started in the Big 10 tourney but moved to the bench once Edwards was available to play. In the NCAA's East has played 18 monutes and score 2 points with 5 rebounds. That is a total of 36 minutes in the NCAA's for East, Waldner and Wolfe, scoring 5 points with 8 rebounds in 2 games.

My point was that Coquese is willing to use them at any point in a game for short stretches and to absorb minutes. They, especially, do so when Greene is in foul trouble. Wolfe is a very capable performer but because of the concussive issues has seen limited play the second half of the season and literally returned right before the tourneys. Wolfe has played 10 minutes a game most of her career and is a competitor like Kelly whose value isn't always on the stat line. She scores about 3-4 points per game in 10 minutes which isn't bad. Early on she was playing 18-20 minutes per game. Waldner is like Buck but is again trusted on the floor with minutes in certain situations. Unlike Geno CW is willing to put her out there.

Actually, I, also, forgot about Studevant who helps with minutes at the guard spot. I am surprised she did not play last night with Bentley's foul situation in the first half. Studevant takes decent care of the ball having only 14 TOs for the season in 10 minutes per game. All ten of these players average almost 10 minutes per game and up.

If Green is in foul trouble, PSU will struggle. And they were outrebounded by LSU by 14. Absolutely.

-Outside of Greene or Bennett whose shot has faded with the wear and tear of playing large minutes as the point guard (34.9 minutes/game) try not to send any starter from PSU to the line they were 25-29 last night. Gray, also, shoots 85% on FTs.

Thankfully, UConn doesn't foul a lot. Absolutely. But it is a place where the officials can put them in trouble although PSU does nothing like ND's gymnastics in the lane.

-In many ways of style PSU is similar, as a problem, to last year's Stanford team.
Style, yes, but I don't see any Pederson, Pohlen (Lucas?) and O sisters on this team. I was talking style and the inside/outside nature of the game.

PSU will lose only Gray off this team and will add Dara Taylor from MD who transfered last year.

Love the matchup from a UConn perspective. PSU's strength is clearly their guard play and they are going against Faris, Doty, Lewis and Hartley. I think that Stokes will have another good game. 4 full days for Geno and staff to review film and gameplan for Lucas? Feeling pretty good.

I see this game from a developmental point of view for PSU. Playing UConn will give them insight into how they need to intensify their game for next year to compete outside of the Big Ten.

 

[cohenzone]

Thanks Padre. I don't think there is a team out there that can get away with playing anything but half court against UConn. They just don't normally allow teams to run very often. Plus UConn is darn good at the full court game and a less than effective defensive team will suffer. Of course, the key to running is defensive rebounding, and UConn has at least 4 kids among SD, KF, TH, KML and KS on the floor at any one time who should be able to rebound well enough to make them worry about our running game. But, never forget the St. John's game. One off game against a decent team doesn't work very well in a single elimination format.

 

[Icebear]

Thanks Padre. I don't think there is a team out there that can get away with playing anything but half court against UConn. They just don't normally allow teams to run very often. Plus UConn is darn good at the full court game and a less than effective defensive team will suffer. Of course, the key to running is defensive rebounding, and UConn has at least 4 kids among SD, KF, TH, KML and KS on the floor at any one time who should be able to rebound well enough to make them worry about our running game. But, never forget the St. John's game. One off game against a decent team doesn't work very well in a single elimination format.

Exactly, and what I was doing was attempting to predict that where the matchups and problems might be if UConn God forbid has an off night.

 

[ChicagoGG]

Thank you, Ice. Your insights were the first thing I looked for when I came Boneyarding today!

 

[jsloanjr]

I like #54 Greene from PSU. She looks like a tough SOB with some serious Pipes and attitude. Lookout UCONN.. No fights......

I agree and I expect UConn by twenty or more but the question is how to best accomplish the most predictable win and I think slowing the game down forcing PSU into a half court game yields the most predictable win. UConn is more than capable of beating PSU by 20 in a road race but it may, also, play to PSU's favor, too, if it is much harder to pick up the spot up 3 point shooters in the chaos or to stop Alex Bentley from getting to the rim.

I expect us to put Nikki Greene into foul trouble although she has managed her game better lately. She is incredibly strong, however, and could put Stef on the bench, too.[/quote

 

[Icebear]

I like #54 Greene from PSU. She looks like a tough SOB with some serious Pipes and attitude. Lookout UCONN.. No fights......

At two PSU men's games this year I sat near the kids from the women's team. I talked to Mia Nickson for a bit just as she returned from an injury and wished her luck which she graciously accepted and thanked me for. They are all great kids and we had some fun teasing back and forth. I was in clerics and a couple of the kids mistook me for a local priest and chatted freely. Good kids, silly college girls, just having fun.

 

[magic]

Thanks Padre. Love all the information. If I write up a game analysis, your's will be the first source of information.

A few questions and comments based on my limited (3 games) viewing of PSU and a little box score analysis.

-Geno will use 6-7 players unless up by 20, Coquese will use 8-9 even if for very brief minutes at any point in the game.
Well, Geno has incorporated Stokes and I don't think that is going to change for the remaining games, so they are in a 7-8 player rotation with Banks the 8th.

-Nikki Greene will be in foul trouble, but UConn will be surprised and challenged by PSU's size inside. Nikki Greene 6'4", Tori Waldner 6'5", Talia East 6'3", Marissa Wolff, Mia Nickson, Ariel Edwards all 6'2".

Waldner and Wolfe don't appear to have any impact on the game. In the 2 Big 10 tourney and 2 NCAA games to date, Waldner has played a total of 16 minutes with zero points and 2 rebounds. Wolfe has played 14 minutes with 5 points and 4 rebound. East started in the Big 10 tourney but moved to the bench once Edwards was available to play. In the NCAA's East has played 18 monutes and score 2 points with 5 rebounds. That is a total of 36 minutes in the NCAA's for East, Waldner and Wolfe, scoring 5 points with 8 rebounds in 2 games.

If Green is in foul trouble, PSU will struggle. And they were outrebounded by LSU by 14.

-Outside of Greene or Bennett whose shot has faded with the wear and tear of playing large minutes as the point guard (34.9 minutes/game) try not to send any starter from PSU to the line they were 25-29 last night. Gray, also, shoots 85% on FTs.

Thankfully, UConn doesn't foul a lot.

-In many ways of style PSU is similar, as a problem, to last year's Stanford team.
Style, yes, but I don't see any Pederson, Pohlen (Lucas?) and O sisters on this team.

Love the matchup from a UConn perspective. PSU's strength is clearly their guard play and they are going against Faris, Doty, Lewis and Hartley. I think that Stokes will have another good game. 4 full days for Geno and staff to review film and gameplan for Lucas? Feeling pretty good.

Lions looked really good the other night against a horrible LSU defense. The husky guards will harrass the perimeter players for Penn St., making it difficult to get open looks. Lucas is a nice shooter , when she has time. Lsu matchup zone did a poor job of rotating with the ball. Penn St . is a guard oriented team without much depth at that position. I believe they will have difficulty keeping the pace of play Huskies like to play at. As for matchups, I don't see anyone capable of matching up with KML. She is bigger than all of their guards, and I doubt either Nickson, East or Edwards can move with her. I think TH will be big on the glass, if her foot is ok. If SD plays agressively, I don't believe Greene can handle her. Huskies defensive pressure, depth, and rebounding spurt them to 20 point win going away.

 

[Icebear]

Lions looked really good the other night against a horrible LSU defense. The husky guards will harrass the perimeter players for Penn St., making it difficult to get open looks. Lucas is a nice shooter , when she has time. Lsu matchup zone did a poor job of rotating with the ball. Penn St . is a guard oriented team without much depth at that position. I believe they will have difficulty keeping the pace of play Huskies like to play at. As for matchups, I don't see anyone capable of matching up with KML. She is bigger than all of their guards, and I doubt either Nickson, East or Edwards can move with her. I think TH will be big on the glass, if her foot is ok. If SD plays agressively, I don't believe Greene can handle her. Huskies defensive pressure, depth, and rebounding spurt them to 20 point win going away.

PSU is guard oriented but has opened games with 15 of the first 20 points being scored by Greene in the post. One has to be prepared for that. PSU most often attempts to establish the post game first much like we do with Dolson.

 

[magic]

I agree. I just don't think PSU is prepared for the pressure that Huskies will apply to the ball. All of Husky guards are Taller and more athletic . I don't see this game being dictated by the bigs. I'm sure Greene will get some points, but I don't think PSU can match the different looks Huskies can throw at them. Now, if Huskies don't pressure the ball, and give Lucas open looks , then, well? Hard to believe PSU can score enough points in this game, unless zebras intervene.

 

[Tonyc]

Everybody looks good until they face UConns defense. The defense Uconn has been playing for the past few weeks is demoralizing and continues to get better. That creates confidence and when you have that kind of confidence in your defense it makes the offense a whole lot easier. I look for UConn to continue with its demoralizing defense.

So long as UConn keeps the pressure on the fear having what happened to KState will still be in the back of every coaches mind. I think UConn beats PSU by 20+.

When is something going to happen to stop the refs from putting Novosel on the line for initiating contact? This already is a problem and if a couple of coaches instruct their kids to take charges then Novosel will be on the bench.

I dont think UConn is going to lose unless something stupid happens like ND lives at the line or UConn meets Baylor again and never gets to the line. UConns defense is keeping opponets guards from getting the ball where they want to, thus making it almost impossible to make plays. STJ and ND are playing this weekend and both were beaten by UConn in the BE tourney and both have good athletic ball handlers.

UConn is on a mission. They have poise, and they have most importantly confidence and you could see it in the BE tourney and then againest PV and KState. UConn never let up in any of those games. I am looking for a Baylor UConn final with UConn getting to the line this time and winning by double digets.

 

[Sonny44]

Everybody looks good until they face UConns defense. The defense Uconn has been playing for the past few weeks is demoralizing and continues to get better. That creates confidence and when you have that kind of confidence in your defense it makes the offense a whole lot easier. I look for UConn to continue with its demoralizing defense.

So long as UConn keeps the pressure on the fear having what happened to KState will still be in the back of every coaches mind. I think UConn beats PSU by 20+.

When is something going to happen to stop the refs from putting Novosel on the line for initiating contact? This already is a problem and if a couple of coaches instruct their kids to take charges then Novosel will be on the bench.

I dont think UConn is going to lose unless something stupid happens like ND lives at the line or UConn meets Baylor again and never gets to the line. UConns defense is keeping opponets guards from getting the ball where they want to, thus making it almost impossible to make plays. STJ and ND are playing this weekend and both were beaten by UConn in the BE tourney and both have good athletic ball handlers.

UConn is on a mission. They have poise, and they have most importantly confidence and you could see it in the BE tourney and then againest PV and KState. UConn never let up in any of those games. I am looking for a Baylor UConn final with UConn getting to the line this time and winning by double digets.[/quote
And I thought I was optimistic! I think they can win it all too, but you make it sound easy.
Agree, everybody looks good until they face the UCONN defense.
Critical - what kind of refs will we get against ND?