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Predicting the future of college football.

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I think, that a good way to get an idea of what may happen in the future, is to look at a track record of things in the past. I'm very happy with the way things are turning out for UConn. We've got a network of institutions from coast to coast now, that are all like minded, in the largest athletic conference in the country.

The most important thing at this point in time, (beyond our own interests) is the revenue sharing agreement that is to come along with the new college football division 1-A 4 team playoff.

I expect that our new conference leader, is going to make that a very big priority, for all of college athletics, once the immediate business is done for the Big East conference.

Read on - and learn from the past, and the past 25 years of college football, and what the revolution of a new college football playoff system can mean. It can mean stabilization of the intercollegiate landscape, that was rocked by a Supreme Court decision in 1984.


E. The future for college football.
So where do we find ourselves today? For me personally, it is a time of personal sadness, because I am concerned about the welfare of college football, a sport with which I have been personally associated for most of my adult life. Despite what the Universities of Oklahoma and Georgia may say, that football is a property right to be used as a business tool to make money
for their universities, it is my view that the vast majority of football-pla/ing members of the NCAA and, indeed, the public-at-
large disagree with that highly commercial perspective.

College football is a uniquely American game. It was originated by the colleges and it is one of our nation's great traditions. People may use the expression "American as apple pie," but I submit to you that college football on Saturday afternoon is as much an American tradition as anything that has persisted in this country, and college football has been a part of the fabric of our society for more than 100 years. It's a unique, demanding game for young people to play and the more colleges that sponsor the sport, the more young people play the game. Until recently, it was never conceived as a money-making tool for college administrators who, unable to raise money through their legislatures or through their alumni, turned to their football teams to build their libraries or to generate general funds. My dismay and sadness stem from the fact that I sense that there is no one now looking after the welfare of college football as a whole.

Television is a unique, powerful tool that dramatically affects sports. The judicial system of the United States may not appreciate that, although Mr. Justice White understands it because he played the game from high school through college and professional football: "[T]he restraints [of the NCAA plan] on Georgia and Oklahoma . . . insure that they confine their programs within the principles of amateurism so that intercollegiate athletics supplement, rather than inhibit, educational achievement."

The plaintiffs and their lawyer contend that college football is just like college basketball, for television purposes, and since there are no national controls in college basketball, we do not need any in college football. The trial court, the 10th Circuit of Appeals and the Supreme Court all accepted or noted that argument. I will not go into the vast distinctions between the two sports other than to say that college football plays 95* of its games on Saturday in open air stadiums, is an expensive sport because of the number of participants, dollar income is much more governing to football than to basketball and the publicity factor in college football television is critical in the recruiting process, regardless of how the money may be divided among the conferences and other organizations. Mr. Justice White appreciated all of that, but the antitrust experts, caught up in the plaintiffs' arguments and the jargon of antitrust business terms and application, ignored the fact that national controls on football television are as essential to keeping a relative balance in college football as' are limits on grants-in-aid, limits on coaching staffs and, for that matter, limits on the number of games institutions may play.

The Supreme Court extolled many of the rules and the activities of the NCAA, but somehow missed the point that unrestricted television on the one hand will give added momentum to prominent institutions to build all winning teams at whatever the cost, in order to maximize the television dollars they can obtain. On the other hand, the decision has turned over to the networks unlimited power to negotiate and obtain college football TV rights and dictate the terms of the plans colleges may develop and -- it has been my experience — the major television networks generally use their power in a most aggressive manner.

I am dismayed and saddened because I feel that college football is in disarray because a minority of institutions believe they should have unlimited opportunity to use their "property" to maximize their profits and, on the other hand, because a small number of television networks that now can manipulate the college football market the way they wish.
One may also inquire in this context whether individual institutions, in their desire to increase the viewer popularity
of their "property right", will not be forced eventually to focus on developing consistent winning percentages and increasingly to attempt to schedule games with other teams which have also demonstrated the capacity to win consistently. If these objectives begin to dominate the game, I suggest,'they will almost inevitably lead to a severe erosion of the conference structure which for many years has been a hallmark of college football.

I think it not unreasonable in these circumstances to visualize the eventual development of some sort of "super- conference" for the titans of the game — a result I am sure the networks would find attractive but one which will redound to the tenet it of only a small minority of NCAA (or indeed CFA) members. There is no doubt that even under the now-voided NCAA television apparatus, we have had a difficult time in attempting to keep the game within the confines of our constitutional purpose — to maintain intercollegiate athletics as an integral part of the educational program. We confront never-ending battles within our membership to establish reasonable and enforceable academic standards as pre-conditions to participation in athletics, we have been required to increase our enforcement staff from 10 to 38 in the past five years to keep track of and police recruiting violations, the graduation rates for our student-athletes is by any measure unsatisfactory, and the pressure to win tends more and more to dominate the game.

Sadder yet, perhaps, is the fact that with loss of the mandated revenue-sharing aspects of our plan, numerous less prominent institutions with fine football programs are now essentially shut out of any significant participation in the market for television. Nothing in the CFA or Big Ten/Pacific Ten plans makes any provision for them and indeed unless and until Judge Burciaga modifies his order, serious doubt exists as to our own capacity to provide revenue to smaller colleges through the marketing of Division I-AA, II and III championships. It takes no economist to foresee with any accuracy what lies ahead. The networks are now in control of the market, and as would any business enterprise, these networks will seek to sell the most attractive product, commanding the highest prices, at the lowest acquisition cost. Their power in an uncontrolled football television market is already manifest: the CFA and Big Ten/Pacific Ten colleges, comprising most of NCAA Division I-A, have succeeded in selling their "packages" to the networks at prices far below those which they would have realized under the now-voided NCAA plan, or what they could have expected under the NCAA's modified national plan involving the entire Division I-A membership that was developed following the Supreme Court decision.
What also obviously lies ahead, in response to this network power, is an effort among those major institutions seeking to operate football as a business, to aggrandize the value of their product by creating a more attractive product, that is, by recruiting only the most talented athletes to their institution with possibly less than necessary regard for the educational capacity and welfare of those athletes.

Saddest of all to me is the potential impact of this situation on the student-athlete. Although the "new environment"
may redound to the benefit of that handful of college football players destined to become professionals, where does it leave the college player who participates because of his love for the game, and as a part of his overall educational experience? For many, I suggest, it will mean a panorama of diminishing opportunity, as many of those institutions — previously sharing in the revenues from the NCAA plan or enjoying live gate protection because of the plan -- find themselves increasingly unable to make ends meet. And this is not to speak of the thousands of student- athletes, men and women, who participate in non-revenue producing sports and championships funded, at least in part, by football revenues.
Although I find no humor in this situation, I am reminded as I view the now-successful effort to dismantle the NCAA's television controls, of the line made famous by Gertrude Stein: "And when you get there, there isn't any there there."
The "there" that is now upon us is a not promising.

John Toner. July 31, 1984.
University of Connecticut Athletic Director.
Former University of Connecticut Football Coach

Excerpt from:


TELEVISED COLLEGE FOOTBALL
0 1,079,211
HEARING BEFORE THE SUBCOMMITTEE ON OVERSIGHT AND INVESTIGATIONS OF THE COMMITTEE ON ENERGY AND COMMERCE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES NINETY-EIGHTH CONGRESS SECOND SESSION
JULY 31, 1984
Serial No. 98-169
Printed for the use of the Committee on Energy and Commerce



Testimony of:
Crouthamel, John J., director of athletics, Syracuse University

Davison, Fred C., president, University of Georgia

Delany, James E., commissioner, Ohio Valley Conference

Eckart, Hon. Dennis E., a Representative in Congress from the State of Ohio

Hallock, Wiles, former chairman, NCAA Football Television Committee

Neinas, Charles M., executive director, College Football Association

Paterno, Joe, head football coach, Pennsylvania State University

Pilspn, Neal H., executive vice president, CBS Broadcast Group

Robinson, Eddie, director of athletics, Grambling State University

Toner, John L., president, National Collegiate Athletic Association

Watson, Arthur, president, NBC Sports

Wormington, Robert J., vice president, KSHB Television, Kansas City, MO

Wussler, Robert J., executive vice president, Turner Broadcasting System,Inc

Young, Charles E., chancellor, University of California at Los Angeles


http://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?...84&page=root&view=plaintext&size=100&orient=0
 
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Pretty good read, but your early line of the "We've got a network of institutions from coast to coast now, that are all like minded, in the largest athletic conference in the country"?

I mean, they're like minded in that they would like to get the most dollars possible in the next tv contract. Not that there is anything wrong with that, but like minded institutions isn't what first comes to mind when I think of the future Big East conference.
 
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Pretty good read, but your early line of the "We've got a network of institutions from coast to coast now, that are all like minded, in the largest athletic conference in the country"?

I mean, they're like minded in that they would like to get the most dollars possible in the next tv contract. Not that there is anything wrong with that, but like minded institutions isn't what first comes to mind when I think of the future Big East conference.


I think you've got an entire network of schools, that are tired of the BS and want it to stop. Baskeball schools. Football schools. Religious schools. Small. Public schools. Large. Military service academy. All of them want it to stop, and they've got plenty of schools below them that will follow.

The key - is the college football post season. The supreme court saw to it (in a terribly wrong decision) that there would be no more television broadcasting controls on college football, and the chaos that's existed in shifting conferences since the late 1980s, and the corruption of intercollegiate athletics and academics since - right up through 2012 is the DIRECT result.

Fake classes at North Carolina? That kind of thing didn't need to be done 30 years ago, to maintain a competitive edge.

There are schools out there, small schools, where education really is important, that are suffering right now, b/c of all this mess. It can stop, but the revenue sharing agreement, around a TRUE competitive based college football postseason, is the way that it stops.

WOuldn't it be great, if all this info somehow found it's way to the right kind of people, in power, in politics, in business, in academics.....so that it can all get fixed.

I have high hopes.
 
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I think you've got an entire network of schools, that are tired of the BS and want it to stop. Baskeball schools. Football schools. Religious schools. Small. Public schools. Large. Military service academy. All of them want it to stop, and they've got plenty of schools below them that will follow.


Carl, if that was really true, our new commish wouldn't be lobbying for the Big East to be included in the "Big 6" talk. What the current Big East schools fear, is what the Tulane President/former UConn Grad, argued a few years back.

What Toner, wrote was prophetic. I've read a few of those pieces from that time that had a similar sentiment. Unfortunately, I think the horse is out of the barn, so I don't see the Big East schools fighting a noble fight on behalf of all the little guys. Instead, I see a league doing its damn best to not get left behind and be lumped in with the rest of the have nots. It is exactly what the Big East should be doing, and I'm hoping this is successful.
 

RS9999X

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At the end of this BCS contract in 2025 Football will be hyper local and available on demand or on subscriptions for your team and include archived games to rerun.

I'm not as convinced the national game of the week format will survive. It will suffer much like album sales(CD sales) in music. Track sales are leading the market and outpacing CD sales revenue this year. People are getting more comfortable with subscriber models, you tube music, downloads and streaming radio.
 

whaler11

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I will never understand why anyone would want to watch an archived game. The day I can't find something better to do than watch a game I already know the final score....
 

UConnDan97

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I will never understand why anyone would want to watch an archived game. The day I can't find something better to do than watch a game I already know the final score....

I will say this; I really enjoyed watching the UConn "Power Hour" games a couple of times each, especially in the off-season. Of course, the beauty is that they condense the game to about 45 minutes, and I can skip the commercials with the DVR. I'm an insomniac, though, so that was what I did during February and March around 2am...
 

whaler11

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I will say this; I really enjoyed watching the UConn "Power Hour" games a couple of times each, especially in the off-season. Of course, the beauty is that they condense the game to about 45 minutes, and I can skip the commercials with the DVR. I'm an insomniac, though, so that was what I did during February and March around 2am...

In the off season stumbling on a game is ok for a few minutes. Caring about them being available - I don't get.

Clearly I don't sleep either since I argue with you at that hour.
 

RS9999X

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I'm also an insomniac and ESPN classic was great to see some of the old teams.

When the archive is available you'll see mashups of players set to music and an entire new way of reptheming old material. It's the type of stuff that builds a fan base/ There's some interesting game angles using old footage

I could watch a Ron Artest humiliation tape right now. Or a classic Billy Curley game from BC before the Flipper drove the team into the gutter
 

nelsonmuntz

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There will be a scandal within 5-10 years involving a conference, possibly in collusion with TV, fixing the outcome of a game(s) through officiating. I am convinced this has already happened.

This will change everything.
 

The Funster

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There will be a scandal within 5-10 years involving a conference, possibly in collusion with TV, fixing the outcome of a game(s) through officiating. I am convinced this has already happened.

This will change everything.

Don't think that is possible. Vegas would sniff that out pretty quick, IMO.
 
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There will be a scandal within 5-10 years involving a conference, possibly in collusion with TV, fixing the outcome of a game(s) through officiating. I am convinced this has already happened.

This will change everything.
Oh good. Then Congress can get involved and that will only make it better than ever. Of course, Penn State would welcome this since it would make their failings only the second biggest college failure of all time.
 

nelsonmuntz

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Don't think that is possible. Vegas would sniff that out pretty quick, IMO.

Vegas can occasionally sniff out if a gambler tries to fix a game, if they are really stupid about it. A guy no one has ever seen walks up to the counter at the MGM and bets $50k on a 7 point underdog. Those guys get caught. A conference wouldn't be betting on the game, so there would be no movement of the line. They are just looking for the best outcome for the conference.

I think conferences have been shading the officiating for games for years. The only question is when will someone blow the whistle.
 

The Funster

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Vegas can occasionally sniff out if a gambler tries to fix a game, if they are really stupid about it. A guy no one has ever seen walks up to the counter at the MGM and bets $50k on a 7 point underdog. Those guys get caught. A conference wouldn't be betting on the game, so there would be no movement of the line. They are just looking for the best outcome for the conference.

I think conferences have been shading the officiating for games for years. The only question is when will someone blow the whistle.

I'm not talking about random guys walking up to windows. I'm talking about trends. I'm talking about setting the lines based on those trends. I don't see how officials can fix the outcome of games without raising the antennae of the guys who set the lines. Maybe they can shave points without getting attention but I don't see how that can benefit a conference to any useful degree.
 

nelsonmuntz

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I'm not talking about random guys walking up to windows. I'm talking about trends. I'm talking about setting the lines based on those trends. I don't see how officials can fix the outcome of games without raising the antennae of the guys who set the lines. Maybe they can shave points without getting attention but I don't see how that can benefit a conference to any useful degree.

Point shaving happens when underdogs cover when they shouldn't. conferences fixing games happens when WVU plays Pitt for the Big East Championship in 2007 or Arkansas/Florida in 2009, or any number of games involving Texas, including two examples where Mark Mangino and Mike Leach both exploded in press conferences after a game because of terrible officiating in games involving the Longhorns. When was the last time a favorite got really hosed by the officials in a game where the conference had a stake in the outcome?
 

The Funster

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Point shaving happens when underdogs cover when they shouldn't. conferences fixing games happens when WVU plays Pitt for the Big East Championship in 2007 or Arkansas/Florida in 2009, or any number of games involving Texas, including two examples where Mark Mangino and Mike Leach both exploded in press conferences after a game because of terrible officiating in games involving the Longhorns. When was the last time a favorite got really hosed by the officials in a game where the conference had a stake in the outcome?

OK, have it your way. A major college FB conference will collude with a major TV network to fix the outcome of game(s) if they haven't been doing it already.
 

CTMike

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Point shaving happens when underdogs cover when they shouldn't. conferences fixing games happens when WVU plays Pitt for the Big East Championship in 2007 or Arkansas/Florida in 2009, or any number of games involving Texas, including two examples where Mark Mangino and Mike Leach both exploded in press conferences after a game because of terrible officiating in games involving the Longhorns. When was the last time a favorite got really hosed by the officials in a game where the conference had a stake in the outcome?
I have never internet-met someone with more propensity for conspiracy theories than you.
 

CTMike

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Carl, yer killing me man. I should have known better. I read half of what you posted before realizing that you were re-posting what you previously quoted in another thread.

In short... hooray that UConn had an AD that was that prescient. Probably helped grease the wheels for our future basketball success and football upgrade. Yet, we are still in Conference Clusterflock - the only thing we have in common is our bizarre athletic relationship, not our like-mindedness. I guarantee you that President Herbst is operating UConn with a Michigan mentality, not a Southern Methodist.

Your advocacy that college football needs artificial government controls over it's broadcasting is strange. To say that schools aren't free to maximize their sports value - particularly state schools, when budgets are tight across the country - defies explanation, other than it makes you sad for the good ol days.... before money, cheating, and scandal. As if those things didn't exist before. They did. Money, cheating, and scandal are as old as time in athletics, college or otherwise.

And why do you think whatever postseason revenue sharing is determined - of which the Big East will likely get a smaller share of, and will have to divide amongst more schools - is somehow the way out of this? Do you not think that money will be consolidated amongst the most powerful conferences? It will be, and the Big East will protest, but at best it's on par with the 5th most powerful conference, the ACC. How is that for stabilization?
 

whaler11

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Point shaving happens when underdogs cover when they shouldn't. conferences fixing games happens when WVU plays Pitt for the Big East Championship in 2007 or Arkansas/Florida in 2009, or any number of games involving Texas, including two examples where Mark Mangino and Mike Leach both exploded in press conferences after a game because of terrible officiating in games involving the Longhorns. When was the last time a favorite got really hosed by the officials in a game where the conference had a stake in the outcome?

The problem is this. I officiated high school games for a decade. I worked with a lot of people who worked college games. Never in 1000 years would they fix a game and keep their mouths shut.

Officials may do a bad job and make bad calls - I can promise you that 98% care very deeply about their performance and despise making mistakes. It does not pay enough money to attract people who aren't committed to the craft.

I won't get into the math, but if you don't love the work you are not spending your Saturday officiating Bates and the MA Maritime Academy.

It sounds great in theory, it's absurd in practice.
 

nelsonmuntz

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The problem is this. I officiated high school games for a decade. I worked with a lot of people who worked college games. Never in 1000 years would they fix a game and keep their mouths shut.

Officials may do a bad job and make bad calls - I can promise you that 98% care very deeply about their performance and despise making mistakes. It does not pay enough money to attract people who aren't committed to the craft.

I won't get into the math, but if you don't love the work you are not spending your Saturday officiating Bates and the MA Maritime Academy.

It sounds great in theory, it's absurd in practice.

3-4 calls can swing a game 2 TD's. All you need is the Head of Officiating for the conference to call up the head umpire before a game and let him know that this is a big game for the league and everyone should "make sure they get it right".

Your theory is right up there with hundreds of assistant coaches at dozens of schools would never be passing envelopes of cash to players because someone would talk, so it must not be happening. Except it is and has been for decades. Major conference officials keep their mouths shut because if they blew the lid off college football at the very least their livelihoods would be in jeopardy. Ask Mike McQueary how he feels about being a whistle blower. Let me know how many assistant coaching jobs open up for him.

Having college football officials report directly to the conference is about as bad a conflict of interest as you will find in any field.

I will agree with you that no one is fixing Bates and MA Maritime Academy.
 

whaler11

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3-4 calls can swing a game 2 TD's. All you need is the Head of Officiating for the conference to call up the head umpire before a game and let him know that this is a big game for the league and everyone should "make sure they get it right".

Your theory is right up there with hundreds of assistant coaches at dozens of schools would never be passing envelopes of cash to players because someone would talk, so it must not be happening. Except it is and has been for decades. Major conference officials keep their mouths shut because if they blew the lid off college football at the very least their livelihoods would be in jeopardy. Ask Mike McQueary how he feels about being a whistle blower. Let me know how many assistant coaching jobs open up for him.

Having college football officials report directly to the conference is about as bad a conflict of interest as you will find in any field.

I will agree with you that no one is fixing Bates and MA Maritime Academy.

Yep a few calls can swing a game. The umpire (there is no head umpire) can not impose his will on the rest of the crew.

You don't get the math. It isn't a livelihood. There are also hundreds of retired officials who would have no financial reason to keep the conspiracy alive.

You do realize that plenty of people have talked about the envelopes of cash going to players right?

If this is as widespread as you propose where is the evidence?
 
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