Predicting the American in 5 years

[Drew]

Which teams do you think will be vying for a conference title? Obviously UCF would appear to be the long term favorite in the conference but ECU and Cincy should give them a run for their money. Also the CCG should be enjoyable to watch.

I think year in and year out you'll see the following teams:

1.UCF
2. Houston
3. ECU
4. Navy
5. Cincinnati

The rest of the teams may be competitive but I don't think have a tremendous shot at a title (at least not every season)

I think SMU ends up canning Butch Jones, they might be able to attract a quality assistant before he leaves for a better job but people who want to take jabs at this conference and say its "a conference" need to realize there's 4 or 5 teams in here who are pretty dang good. Definitely a more competitive football conference and I actually think it will blossom into at least the same position the old Big East was in.

 

[UConnDan97]

Five years from now?

1. UConn
2. UCF
3. Cincy
4. Houston
5. USF

Of course this comes with a couple of asterisks (like, are these teams still in the conference?, does UConn hire the right guy?). But assuming that the new coaches at UConn, Cincy, and USF are able to implement their styles, I would be shocked if the "old Big East" teams aren't in the mix every year to win the conference. I put UConn as number one because...well...why not?

 

[Jimmy Serrano]

The big money conferences have all but successfully shut out everyone else. This conference will be closer to the MAC than it will to the ACC.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

I don't think Navy will be up there, but it's hard to argue against the other 4 programs.

The problem with predicting future success in a conference like this, is that the coaching will be so transient. As we all know, college football is all about the head coach. I think we're likely to see a lot of guys get hot for 2-3 years and get better offers.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

The big money conferences have all but successfully shut out everyone else. This conference will be closer to the MAC than it will to the ACC.

Not sure I buy that entirely. Perception wise, exposure wise and bowl access you're entirely correct.

However, we still have a lot of teams playing in 30,000+ seat stadiums that are continuing to invest in their programs.

Sure, nobody is going to be Florida State, VT or Clemson but on the field I don't see how Wake,Cuse, BC, UNC, etc. are worlds better.

Every year the dollar gap grows, but from our perspective, we have the big east money for a few seasons and this current tv deal is short (6 years?) as well.

If the AAC can put together some decent teams maybe the next tv deal we pull in 5M+ a season? Who knows... maybe we'll be in the big 10 by then!

 

[freescooter]

I think that it will be sort of tough to predict for a few reasons. Coaching is a big thing, and we'll likely have less stability than the P5 conferences at the top. O'Leary is 67. he is an excellent coach but they could fall from grace pretty quickly with a bad hire. I actually think it would be good for the league to have a couple of top teams year in year out. That was one of the things that hurt the old Big East I think. Not having a dominant team made people think that it didn't have good teams.

I actually do think that we could be comparable in on-field play with the ACC pretty quickly except at the very top. Florida State is at a higher level. Clemson is a good ACC team, nothing more. I have been hearing about Clemson for a decade or more but have never seen them actually play at the level they are supposedly at.

 

[whaler11]

Clemson is only 28-7 the last three years and will probably finish with back to back top 10 seasons.

They sure suck.

 

[ZooCougar]

The AAC could quite possibly end up as the 6th best conference on paper and in reality. Most of the programs in the conference are small but well run. The biggest risk to the conference going forward is losing schools to the Big 12 which will be developing an appetite for expansion out of neccesity sometime in the future.

 

[freescooter]

Clemson is only 28-7 the last three years and will probably finish with back to back top 10 seasons.

They sure suck.

They don't suck. They are just badly over rated year in and year out. Every time they have a big game they spit the bit. Every time. Sure they can beat up on the BCs and Wake Forests of the ACC. But in big games they have failed pretty consistently. 2009 ACCCG Georgia Tech 39, Clemson 34. 2010 Orange Bowl, West Virginia 70-Clemson 33. 2011 FSU 49-Clemson 37. 2013 FSU 51-Clemson 14. And they have lost 4 in a row to South Carolina. The ACC is a weak league where they regularly put up good numbers, and for some reason the media loves them, but they are way below the national power programs they regularly get lumped with. Top 10 teams don't lose 51-14 at home. At least legitimate ones don't. Media darlings, that's something else.

 

[whaler11]

They don't suck. They are just badly over rated year in and year out. Every time they have a big game they spit the bit. Every time. Sure they can beat up on the BCs and Wake Forests of the ACC. But in big games they have failed pretty consistently. 2009 ACCCG Georgia Tech 39, Clemson 34. 2010 Orange Bowl, West Virginia 70-Clemson 33. 2011 FSU 49-Clemson 37. 2013 FSU 51-Clemson 14. And they have lost 4 in a row to South Carolina. The ACC is a weak league where they regularly put up good numbers, and for some reason the media loves them, but they are way below the national power programs they regularly get lumped with. Top 10 teams don't lose 51-14 at home. At least legitimate ones don't. Media darlings, that's something else.

Yeah I guess they didn't beat Georgia and Auburn - they never win any big games right?

This Boneyard fantasy that the ACC is a weak league continues to humor me. If the ACC is a weak league than so are The Big 12 and Big 10. They have the exact same dynamic - a few top teams and a ton of mediocre and worse programs.

Do Boston College and NC State stink? Sure. But so do Purdue, Indiana, Kansas, Iowa State and plenty of other schools.

The ACC has 3 of the top 12 teams in the composite computer ranks... which of course is better than the Big 10 and Big 12 who have one each - both ranked behind FSU.

The ACC isn't the SEC - guess what only the Pac 12 can pretend to compete with them - so if that's your definition of weak there are two leagues that aren't weak.

 

[freescooter]

They got blown out of their own building 2 weeks ago. They haven't won a big game since Danny Ford was the coach. They beat a very average Georgia team in the opening weekend. they'll end up with their usual gaudy numbers but will probably lose to South Carolina again. Depending on the draw in whatever mid-tier bowl game they land in they might end up 11-2 again and everyone will be telling us just how great Clemson is again. Rinse and repeat next season as they gag in their big game then. The ACC has one real power team. And it is the one who never really fit there in the first place. Clemson is what it is. An over hyped team in a middlin' league.

 

[tduconn]

The AAC is poised to have some very good teams at the top of league in the next five years, or sooner.

UCF = old West Virginia in BE.....the flag bearer of AAC......has a number of notable BCS wins
Cinncinnatti....always good regardless of coach rotation
U of Houston
SMU

Those teams are in rich, fertile recruiting area, two were fairly good with the old SWC. I don't see any of their current coaches leaving......heck, they'd probably be the next expansion choices of Big 12/ACC...... good programs in their (Big 12, ACC) own back yard.

Wouldn't surprise me if a future Big 12 resembles a merger of some SWC and Big 12 teams. Its almost there now.

Watch out for Tulsa.

Navy is with AAC for name only......doesn't do anything to strengthen football prowness.

ECU, Temple, USF, UConn, Tulsa, Tulane in lower half of AAC.......may not have too much expansion buzz.

 

[whaler11]

SMU has been in a fertile recruiting ground for decades and has been a CUSA afterthought. Why would this change?

 

[ZooCougar]

The AAC is poised to have some very good teams at the top of league in the next five years, or sooner.

UCF = old West Virginia in BE.....the flag bearer of AAC......has a number of notable BCS wins
Cinncinnatti....always good regardless of coach rotation
U of Houston
SMU

Those teams are in rich, fertile recruiting area, two were fairly good with the old SWC. I don't see any of their current coaches leaving......heck, they'd probably be the next expansion choices of Big 12/ACC...... good programs in their (Big 12, ACC) own back yard.

Wouldn't surprise me if a future Big 12 resembles a merger of some SWC and Big 12 teams. Its almost there now.

Watch out for Tulsa.

Navy is with AAC for name only......doesn't do anything to strengthen football prowness.

ECU, Temple, USF, UConn, Tulsa, Tulane in lower half of AAC.......may not have too much expansion buzz.

What's dissappointing is that we should be the flag bearers in this new conference.

 

[UConnDan97]

SMU has been in a fertile recruiting ground for decades and has been a CUSA afterthought. Why would this change?

As June Jones goes, so does SMU. I believe that June Jones is a very good coach. He's brought SMU to bowl games four years straight (won three), and I think they are poised to continue moving upward. They've had a rough start this year, but the losses were to good teams (Texas Tech, TCU, A&M, Rutgers). It will be tough for them to get bowl eligible this year, but I digress.

The real question is what happens to SMU in 3-5 years. The coach is 60 years old now. However, SMU does have cash in the reserves. They are currently paying Jones 2 million, and could likely pay more depending on the coach selected to follow him. They'll never be Texas, but I don't see any reason why they couldn't or won't be a team like TCU...

 

[Jerry1714]

They don't suck. They are just badly over rated year in and year out. Every time they have a big game they spit the bit. Every time. Sure they can beat up on the BCs and Wake Forests of the ACC. But in big games they have failed pretty consistently. 2009 ACCCG Georgia Tech 39, Clemson 34. 2010 Orange Bowl, West Virginia 70-Clemson 33. 2011 FSU 49-Clemson 37. 2013 FSU 51-Clemson 14. And they have lost 4 in a row to South Carolina. The ACC is a weak league where they regularly put up good numbers, and for some reason the media loves them, but they are way below the national power programs they regularly get lumped with. Top 10 teams don't lose 51-14 at home. At least legitimate ones don't. Media darlings, that's something else.

Was beating down LSU last new years eve blowing a big game? God I would love to blow games like that.

Or beating a national championship caliber UGA (prior to their injuries)?

 

[whaler11]

As June Jones goes, so does SMU. I believe that June Jones is a very good coach. He's brought SMU to bowl games four years straight (won three), and I think they are poised to continue moving upward. They've had a rough start this year, but the losses were to good teams (Texas Tech, TCU, A&M, Rutgers). It will be tough for them to get bowl eligible this year, but I digress.

The real question is what happens to SMU in 3-5 years. The coach is 60 years old now. However, SMU does have cash in the reserves. They are currently paying Jones 2 million, and could likely pay more depending on the coach selected to follow him. They'll never be Texas, but I don't see any reason why they couldn't or won't be a team like TCU...

We'll they have had decades to get back to where TCU has been recently and have never come close.

I don't know if people really understand CUSA has been for the last half decade... getting to a bowl could be done by beating teams that couldn't tie their shoes - not much different than anyone who has Temple, UConn,USF, Memphis on their schedule.

Rutgers may have the most disgusting 7-5 record in CFB history.

 

[Dooley]

I think this answer has to wait until Warde makes his hire. UCONN has the largest athletic department budget in the conference and will need to increase it in the football program to overcome the recruiting advantages that UCF, USF, Houston, SMU, Cincinnati, etc enjoy. Not only do we need to prepare to pay our next coach handsomely, we also need to increase our assistant coaches salary pool and devote the necessary resources to recruit states like FL, PA, OH, TX, and the mid-Atlantic. We have the on-campus facilities to train and condition our athletes, it's just a matter of finding the right kids who want to come here and be coached up by a new coaching staff.

 

[freescooter]

Was beating down LSU last new years eve blowing a big game? God I would love to blow games like that.

Or beating a national championship caliber UGA (prior to their injuries)?

National championship caliber Georgia? Puh-lease! the mere fact that they lost ot Clemson suggests they too were a bit over-rated. A win in the by a point in a game neither team really wanted to be at is an interesting definition of beat down, too. Clemson is what Clemson is as I said before. Sort of a 2nd level power in the same group with teams like Iowa, VaTech, Oregon State--programs that have good teams but are never really make to the real power teams, except in the odd year where a FSU or Ohio State or USC or Oregon are having an off season. The difference with Clemson is the medial has somehow bought into this idea that they are better than they in fact are. 51-14 at home in the most important game on their schedule is Clemson in a nutshell. They'll probably end up 10-2 this year and win some 2nd tier bowl as usual unless by some freak accident FSU flubs a couple of games to B-level competition. then they'll go to a BCS bowl and lose by 20. and the media will STILL tell us how great they are until they get blown out again in the next important game.

 

[Jimmy Serrano]

Clemson is what Clemson is as I said before. Sort of a 2nd level power in the same group with teams like Iowa, VaTech, Oregon State--programs that have good teams but are never really make to the real power teams, except in the odd year where a FSU or Ohio State or USC or Oregon are having an off season.

What I wouldn't give to be like Clemson.............

 

[Vowelguy]

Tier 1: UCF, Houston, Cinci, ECU
Tier 2: UConn, USF, SMU, Tulsa
Tier 3: Memphis, Tulane, Temple, Navy

 

[freescooter]

What I wouldn't give to be like Clemson.............

Be honest. At this point you'd give a lot to be like South Florida, no?

 

[Adios]

UCF is having a great season and never beat USF and people are thinking they are the bomb. Wait till O'Leary retires.

 

[Pudge]

The big money conferences have all but successfully shut out everyone else. This conference will be closer to the MAC than it will to the ACC.

I think this is crazy.

You are talking the next tier. But ... WE ... and others amongst this conference (and some MWC) are spending way more for Athletics than the MAC or the Sunbelt. It's not fair to say we never will be separate from those. I expect that the arc we are on will continue to point to a good level of football ... the problem is that we may never be this close again to the P5 as they will markedly move beyond us. (and break lots of so-called rules on their way)

 

[freescooter]

I somewhat agree with you Pudge, but I'd go a bit further. there will be a handful of schools in the P5 leagues that pull away. Indeed they are already doin git. I'm pretty skeptical that in 5 years the best programs in the AAC won't be able to compete, more than compete actually, with Indiana and Wake Forest and Kentucky and the Mississippis and Iowa States of the world.