Predicted Big East standings (Dec 12 Edition)

[nelsonmuntz]

I tried this two weeks ago and screwed it up, posting it on the Entertainment Board, so I am trying again.

As of today, what do you think the Big East standings will be at the end of the year? We can update every few weeks.


1) Villanova - class of the conference, but they are not dominant. They will lose 3 or 4 games.
2) Seton Hall - consistency will be an issue, but SHU's "A" game is as good as any team in the country's. Rhoden enables them to match up with anyone. They have speed, and can shoot, rebound and defend. Willard needs to reign them in just a little because the team feels out of control at times.
3) Xavier - This may be the most talented team in the Big East between Scruggs, Freemantle and Nunge. I just don't like Travis Steele as a coach. He reminds me of Lappas or Tim Welsh. Knows his X's and O's but is just small time. If UConn had a healthy Sanogo and Martin to start the season, I would have Xavier 4th.
4) UConn - like the defense for the most part, but the offense needs some work. I am expecting Martin back for the PC game in a week, and Sanogo in early January. If Sanogo or Martin are out longer, then UConn is finishing lower than 4th.
5) Providence - Providence looks pretty good so far, with only a weird blowout loss to Virginia as a reason to doubt this team. I don't think they are good enough to pick off anyone really good, but PC will be a tough matchup for just about every team in the Big East.
6) Marquette - Shaka Smart is on track to BE Coach of the Year, rebuilding this team very quickly. They are still a middle of the pack team, but they will be tough.
7) Creighton - Only two losses are two teams that are still undefeated (Colorado State and Iowa State), and they easily beat a good BYU team today. McDermott is going a good job, and I think Creighton will be right on the bubble for a bid.
8) Depaul - I like the way Depaul plays now, and everything seems like a big improvement over last year. It will take some time to clean all the Leitao off them.
9) St. Johns - SJU is not as good as I expected. I don't think this is a knock on Anderson so much as the players just aren't good enough for SJU to finish better than about 9th.
10) Butler - slow and unathletic, but they can shoot and don't suck as bad as I originally thought they would. If Nze returns, they could do OK in the conference.
11) Georgetown - Ewing is a good game coach but you have to wonder what goes on during practice to cause all the departures. I think Georgetown still sucks despite the win over Syracuse, and a 2 or so win Big East season seems likely.


Other than #11, I could be talked into shuffling this. What do you think?

 

[Austin316]

Every game is a dog fight going forward. Shaka is going to make Marquette consistent again. Big East can get 4-5 teams dancing this year.

 

[ecasadoSBU]

Every game is a dog fight going forward. Shaka is going to make Marquette consistent again. Big East can get 4-5 teams dancing this year.

4-5? I expect at least 6 the way things are looking. Unless the league craps out the last week of OOC there is no reason to believe the league will not get at least 6 in. 7 more likely than 5

 

[SeattleHoop]

This is a strong year for the Big East. Nova, Seton Hall, UConn, Xavier and Providence are all Top 25ish. DePaul is making a case, they look very good and Marquette and Creighton are re-building very strong programs. It’s easily one of the best in the country. We can put in 6-7 if things shake out right. But probably 5 bc we will beat each other up

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Lunardi has allocated 38 bids to the major conferences. My back of the envelope prediction of bids by conference:

ACC - 5 (Lunari has 6)
SEC - 6 (Lunardi has 7)
Big 12 - 6-7 (L with 7)
Big 10 - 6-7 (L with 9)
Pac 12 - 3-4 (L with 3)
Big East - 6-8 (L with 6)

I have trouble getting to 37 bids based on what the teams have done to date. I don't know where the other bid would come from.


A simple way to guesstimate a conference's bids at the end of the OOC schedule is to figure out how many teams could get into the dance with a .500 conference record, then reduce it by 1 because stuff happens.

 

[Hey Adrien!]

Good work, @nelsonmuntz. Never easy to do.

Here's my stab:

Projections from July 25th:

#1: Nova
#2-#3: UConn, Xavier
#4-#6: St. John's, Butler, Seton Hall
#7: Providence,
#8-#9 Creighton, Georgetown
#10: Marquette
#11: DePaul

Where I'm at now:

TIER ONE

#1: Nova

• There's a huge hole at the 5 spot offensively and defensively, but 1-4 one of the best teams in the nation. Up against a team w/o offensive bigs, I can see Nova beating Baylor today, thus hyping them up a bit, but teams with dominant bigs like UConn, Xavier and Providence will be interesting case studies on how far Villanova can go in the tourney if they can defend the post.

TIER TWO - WOULD BE DISAPPOINTMENT IF ANY OF THESE TEAMS MISS THE TOURNEY

#2 UConn

• We would have beaten Michigan State if we had Whaley and we would have beaten West Virginia if we had Sanogo/Martin. When healthy, we go nine deep and have the ability to give opponents very diverse looks.

#3 Xavier

• I'm amazed how well they played without Freemantle. Like UConn, incredibly deep team and can give a lot of diverse looks. With Odom at the point, they can play small w/ Jones/Scruggs getting looks at the 4. Or, they can go all the way to playing Scruggs at the point and two big lineups. Good tournament teams needs multiple scoring weapons and Scruggs, Johnson, Jones, Freemantle and Nunge all provide the team different ways to score.

#4 Seton Hall

• Like UConn and Xavier, Seton Hall has good depth and are BIG. The team's weakness is shooting, so I'm curious how they'll do against teams that stretch them.

TIER THREE - POTENTIAL TOURNEY TEAMS

# 5 Providence

• They've exceeded my expectations. Durham has been a heck of a transfer pickup and Noah Horchler has reached another level. Couple that w/ vets Nate Watson and AJ Reeves and you have a complete team. Their weakness: point guard. I'm not a Jared Bynum fan.

#6 Creighton

• Pretty amazing how Greg McDermott has made adjustments with the roster: they don't shoot threes, but move the ball well and are deadly inside. Ryan Hawkins has played out of his mind and Kalkbrenner and O'Connell have made big jumps. These three vets have allowed their great freshman class to develop at their own rate and I've been very impressed w/ Nembhard. Their dominant win against BYU really showed me something.

TIER FOUR - NIT CANDIDATES

#7 St. John's

• A fun team to watch, but their frontcourt is not anywhere close to how good I thought they would be. Transfers Joel Soriano (Fordham) and Aaron Wheeler (Purdue) have disappointed. A flawed team, but not anyone any team would want to play against.

# 8 Marquette

• Shaka Smart likes to push the pace and no bad losses so far (Bonnies, Wisconsin, UCLA). To me, I'm still not sure what to think about this team, particularly their offensive capabilities when forced to play halfcourt O.

#9 DePaul

• Not surprised this team is better with Charlie Moore out of the picture. Javon Freeman-Liberty and David Jones have been a super duo while their depth will continue to grow with Jalen Terry back, Ahmaud Bynum (maybe) joining and Javan Johnson building their wing depth in the second semester. A team I am rooting for!

TIER FIVE - WORST OF THE CONFERENCE, BUT I DON'T TAKE THEM LIGHTLY

#10 Butler

• Deep, experienced team but lacks the firepower to get out of the Big East basement this year. It's just hard to see a team do much w/ two guards in the backcourt that are bad shooters (Thompson) or inefficient (Harris).

#11 Georgetown

• Aminu Mohammed is a stud and Donald Carey is one of the most balanced and efficient players in the Big East. Dante Harris is an excellent long-term piece too. I'm hoping the '20 and '21 class sticks around, but right now, their frontcourt has almost no offense and while Kaiden Rice is an insane long-range shooter, he's incredibly one-dimensional.

 

[shizzle787]

1. Nova
2. Xavier
3. UConn
4. Seton Hall
5. Creighton
6. Providence
7. Marquette
8. St. John's
9. Butler
10. DePaul
11. Georgetown

 

[shizzle787]

This is a strong year for the Big East. Nova, Seton Hall, UConn, Xavier and Providence are all Top 25ish. DePaul is making a case, they look very good and Marquette and Creighton are re-building very strong programs. It’s easily one of the best in the country. We can put in 6-7 if things shake out right. But probably 5 bc we will beat each other up

This to me is the major argument why we should try to get Gonzaga and stay with the 20-game schedule. We would immediately gain half a bid at minimum and probably a whole bid on average just by doing those two things.

 

[MJ1]

1. Xavier
2. Nova
3. UConn
4. Seton Hall
5. St. John’s
6. Creighton
7. Providence
8. Marquette
9. DePaul
10. Georgetown
11. Butler

 

[Friarsnoop]

Every game is a dog fight going forward. Shaka is going to make Marquette consistent again. Big East can get 4-5 teams dancing this year.

Since the Big East hasn't gotten fewer than 4 bids since the 1990s, that's a safe bet. I think 7 bids is more likely than 4.

 

[SouthBayHusky]

Every game is a dog fight going forward. Shaka is going to make Marquette consistent again. Big East can get 4-5 teams dancing this year.

4 to 5 would be the normal baseline for Big East. Big East is very strong this year. More like 6–7

 

[August_West]

1. Seton Hall
2. Nova
3. UConn /Xavier tie
5. St. John’s
6. Providence
7. Marquette
8. Creighton
9. DePaul
10. Georgetown
11. Butler

 

[AntG168]

Am I alone in thinking neither seton hall or Xavier is better than us?

 

[zls44]

@nelsonmuntz doesnt think this team is very good, noted.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

@nelsonmuntz doesnt think this team is very good, noted.

I picked UConn to finish 4th in the best conference in basketball. I know it is not an ESPN conference, but it is definitely #1. But at least ESPN gets two Pitt vs. Syracuse games to broadcast in prime time.

 

[gtcam]

Any team from 5 down can finish in any order and that includes Georgetown - I don't see them being the cellar dweller - The past issues have nothing to do with practices - rather it's due to player personalities, player self evaluations/importance and kids not accepting a sense of discipline. None of those players who left would have lasted one half of the 1st Calhoun practice

If Martin and Sanogo don't return in another week to 10 days, I fear UConn very well may be in that 5-11 area

 

[gtcam]

Am I alone in thinking neither seton hall or Xavier is better than us?

Maybe not better on every night but if either plays UConn with an A game - due to experience, yeah they are better. That doesn't mean UConn can't beat them

BTW - Watching Nova/Baylor yesterday everyone sees that Nova is not the Nova of the past few years - If you outwork them and get in their face - they do not like it at all - not as deep as a typical Nova team

 

[Kolumbo]

I tried this two weeks ago and screwed it up, posting it on the Entertainment Board, so I am trying again.

As of today, what do you think the Big East standings will be at the end of the year? We can update every few weeks.


1) Villanova - class of the conference, but they are not dominant. They will lose 3 or 4 games.
2) Seton Hall - consistency will be an issue, but SHU's "A" game is as good as any team in the country's. Rhoden enables them to match up with anyone. They have speed, and can shoot, rebound and defend. Willard needs to reign them in just a little because the team feels out of control at times.
3) Xavier - This may be the most talented team in the Big East between Scruggs, Freemantle and Nunge. I just don't like Travis Steele as a coach. He reminds me of Lappas or Tim Welsh. Knows his X's and O's but is just small time. If UConn had a healthy Sanogo and Martin to start the season, I would have Xavier 4th.
4) UConn - like the defense for the most part, but the offense needs some work. I am expecting Martin back for the PC game in a week, and Sanogo in early January. If Sanogo or Martin are out longer, then UConn is finishing lower than 4th.
5) Providence - Providence looks pretty good so far, with only a weird blowout loss to Virginia as a reason to doubt this team. I don't think they are good enough to pick off anyone really good, but PC will be a tough matchup for just about every team in the Big East.
6) Marquette - Shaka Smart is on track to BE Coach of the Year, rebuilding this team very quickly. They are still a middle of the pack team, but they will be tough.
7) Creighton - Only two losses are two teams that are still undefeated (Colorado State and Iowa State), and they easily beat a good BYU team today. McDermott is going a good job, and I think Creighton will be right on the bubble for a bid.
8) Depaul - I like the way Depaul plays now, and everything seems like a big improvement over last year. It will take some time to clean all the Leitao off them.
9) St. Johns - SJU is not as good as I expected. I don't think this is a knock on Anderson so much as the players just aren't good enough for SJU to finish better than about 9th.
10) Butler - slow and unathletic, but they can shoot and don't suck as bad as I originally thought they would. If Nze returns, they could do OK in the conference.
11) Georgetown - Ewing is a good game coach but you have to wonder what goes on during practice to cause all the departures. I think Georgetown still sucks despite the win over Syracuse, and a 2 or so win Big East season seems likely.


Other than #11, I could be talked into shuffling this. What do you think?

"I think Georgetown still sucks despite the win over Syracuse, and a 2 or so win Big East season seems likely."
Might as well say Georgetown still sucks despite a win over Longwood.

It's all about the Tourney at MSG.

 

[HeGotGame]

If UConn gets healthy they will win this conference.

Everyone assuming Nova wins it hasn't watched Nova this year. And I really do not get the Seton Hall thing.

 

[AntG168]

Maybe not better on every night but if either plays UConn with an A game - due to experience, yeah they are better. That doesn't mean UConn can't beat them

BTW - Watching Nova/Baylor yesterday everyone sees that Nova is not the Nova of the past few years - If you outwork them and get in their face - they do not like it at all - not as deep as a typical Nova team

See I disagree. Experience? UConn is super excited experienced. If we play our A game neither can beat us

 

[MJ1]

"I think Georgetown still sucks despite the win over Syracuse, and a 2 or so win Big East season seems likely."
Might as well say Georgetown still sucks despite a win over Longwood.

It's all about the Tourney at MSG.

Book Georgetown for about 5 Big East wins this year. When there hot from 3 they can play with anyone. Problem is there not hot from 3 often.