Predict the Top 8 Seeds of Next Committee Reveal (Sunday, Feb. 28 at 5 p.m.)

[visitingcock]

Okay, predict now if you want. If you change your prediction before 5 pm on the 28th, please quote your previous prediction to show the changes.


For me (for now):

1. SCar
2. Indiana
3. Stanford
4. UConn

Next four adjusted to create matchups
Utah
Iowa
LSU
Duke

Greenville
SCar v. Duke
UConn v. Utah

Seattle
Stanford v. Iowa
Indiana v. LSU

 

[Iowa57]

Here are the remaining regular season schedules of the Selection Committee's Top 11 teams. I'm using AP rankings within the schedules. I'll do predictions in a second post.

1. South Carolina- vs. Florida, at Ole Miss, at Tennessee, vs. Georgia
2. Indiana- vs. #12 Michigan, vs. Purdue, at #2 Iowa
3. Stanford- vs. #25 USC, vs. #16 UCLA, at #21 Colorado, at #4 Utah
4. UConn- vs. Creighton, at #14 Villanova, vs. St. John's, at DePaul, vs. Xavier
5. LSU- vs. Ole Miss, at Florida, at Vanderbilt, vs. Mississippi State
6. Utah- at #18 Arizona, at Arizona State, vs. California, vs. #3 Stanford
7. Iowa- vs. Wisconsin, at Nebraska, at #8 Maryland, vs. #2 Indiana
8. Duke- at #11 Virginia Tech, at Virginia, vs. NC State, vs. #19 North Carolina
9. Maryland- at Michigan State, vs. #7 Iowa, at #13 Ohio State
10. Notre Dame- vs. Louisville, at Pitt, vs. Georgia Tech, at Louisville
11. Michigan- at #2 Indiana, vs. #13 Ohio State, vs. Rutgers, at Wisconsin

 

[hoopsnloops32]

Why are they revealing so much? Just let us live and find out on selection Sunday.

 

[Iowa57]

Barring multiple surprises, I think South Carolina and Indiana are locked in at 1 and 2 for the regular season.

Stanford and Iowa are high volatility teams. Both could add significantly to their resumes or could suffer multiple defeats. If both go 3-1 to finish, they probably hold position. Any worse and they both could drop. If Iowa goes 4-0 it might be in play for a 1 seed. If Stanford goes 4-0 it might be in position to jump Indiana if it wins the Pac 12 tournament.

If I were the Committee I would drop LSU based on the big loss to South Carolina and its poor schedule. No idea if the Committee will agree. They probably drop a decent amount if they lose again in the regular season.

Utah might be in play for a 1 seed if UConn or Stanford falter, but they probably need to go 4-0 in the regular season to make the jump.

Not sure Duke can realistically get up to a 1 seed. Maryland probably can't either, but might have a good shot at a 2 seed if it wins out.

Assuming Michigan doesn't beat Indiana, I'm not sure either Michigan or Notre Dame can jump up to a 2. Neither will add significantly to their resume before the regular season ends.

For my prediction, I'll go: 1) South Carolina, 2) Indiana, 3) Stanford, 4) UConn, 5) Iowa, 6) Utah, 7) LSU, 8) Duke

 

[visitingcock]

Here are the remaining regular season schedules of the Selection Committee's Top 11 teams. I'm using AP rankings within the schedules. I'll do predictions in a second post.

1. South Carolina- vs. Florida, at Ole Miss, at Tennessee, vs. Georgia
2. Indiana- vs. #12 Michigan, vs. Purdue, at #2 Iowa
3. Stanford- vs. #25 USC, vs. #16 UCLA, at #21 Colorado, at #4 Utah
4. UConn- vs. Creighton, at #14 Villanova, vs. St. John's, at DePaul, vs. Xavier
5. LSU- vs. Ole Miss, at Florida, at Vanderbilt, vs. Mississippi State
6. Utah- at #18 Arizona, at Arizona State, vs. California, vs. #3 Stanford
7. Iowa- vs. Wisconsin, at Nebraska, at #8 Maryland, vs. #2 Indiana
8. Duke- at #11 Virginia Tech, at Virginia, vs. NC State, vs. #19 North Carolina
9. Maryland- at Michigan State, vs. #7 Iowa, at #13 Ohio State
10. Notre Dame- vs. Louisville, at Pitt, vs. Georgia Tech, at Louisville
11. Michigan- at #2 Indiana, vs. #13 Ohio State, vs. Rutgers, at Wisconsin

Goog work but, It's dangerous to make predictions based on AP rankings which are virtually worthless. I would suggest you use the NET rankings that the committee uses.

1	1	South Carolina	SEC	25-0	11-0	1-0	13-0	0-0
2	2	UConn	Big East	22-4	8-3	3-0	11-1	0-0
3	3	LSU	SEC	23-1	6-1	4-0	13-0	0-0
4	4	Stanford	Pac-12	24-3	8-2	2-0	14-1	0-0
5	5	Indiana	Big Ten	24-1	8-1	2-0	14-0	0-0
6	6	Utah	Pac-12	22-2	8-2	2-0	12-0	0-0
7	8	Iowa	Big Ten	20-5	6-3	1-1	13-1	0-0
8	7	Duke	ACC	22-3	9-2	1-1	12-0	0-0
9	9	Notre Dame	ACC	20-4	6-2	3-0	11-2	0-0
10	11	Villanova	Big East	22-4	11-1	2-2	9-1	0-0
11	10	Texas	Big 12	20-7	5-4	2-2	13-1	0-0
12	13	Virginia Tech	ACC	20-4	6-3	2-0	12-1	0-0
13	15	Iowa St.	Big 12	16-7	3-5	2-1	11-1	0-0
14	14	Michigan	Big Ten	20-5	7-2	4-0	9-3	0-0
15	16	Maryland	Big Ten	21-5	9-2	2-1	10-2	0-0
16	12	Ohio St.	Big Ten	21-5	8-2	2-0	11-3	0-0
17	17	NC State	ACC	17-8	5-5	2-0	10-3	0-0
18	19	Tennessee	SEC	18-9	4-4	1-2	13-3	0-0
19	18	Florida St.	ACC	20-7	6-4	2-2	12-1	0-0
20	20	Colorado	Pac-12	20-5	8-4	1-0	11-1	0-0
21	21	Oregon	Pac-12	14-11	3-5	2-2	9-4	0-0
22	22	Alabama	SEC	19-6	8-2	1-1	10-3	0-0
23	23	North Carolina	ACC	18-7	4-5	2-1	12-1	0-0
24	24	Baylor	Big 12	16-8	4-2	2-2	10-4	0-0
25	26	UCLA	Pac-12	20-6	5-4	3-0	12-2	0-0
26	25	Creighton	Big East	18-6	11-2	0-0	7-4	0-0
27	27	Arizona	Pac-12	19-6	7-3	2-0	10-3	0-0
28	29	Ole Miss	SEC	20-5	6-3	1-1	13-1	0-0
29	28	Southern California	Pac-12	19-6	6-3	0-1	13-2	0-0
30	30	Middle Tenn.	C-USA	20-4	7-3	1-1	12-0	0-0

 

[Iowa57]

Goog work but, It's dangerous to make predictions based on AP rankings which are virtually worthless. I would suggest you use the NET rankings that the committee uses.

1	1	South Carolina	SEC	25-0	11-0	1-0	13-0	0-0
2	2	UConn	Big East	22-4	8-3	3-0	11-1	0-0
3	3	LSU	SEC	23-1	6-1	4-0	13-0	0-0
4	4	Stanford	Pac-12	24-3	8-2	2-0	14-1	0-0
5	5	Indiana	Big Ten	24-1	8-1	2-0	14-0	0-0
6	6	Utah	Pac-12	22-2	8-2	2-0	12-0	0-0
7	8	Iowa	Big Ten	20-5	6-3	1-1	13-1	0-0
8	7	Duke	ACC	22-3	9-2	1-1	12-0	0-0
9	9	Notre Dame	ACC	20-4	6-2	3-0	11-2	0-0
10	11	Villanova	Big East	22-4	11-1	2-2	9-1	0-0
11	10	Texas	Big 12	20-7	5-4	2-2	13-1	0-0
12	13	Virginia Tech	ACC	20-4	6-3	2-0	12-1	0-0
13	15	Iowa St.	Big 12	16-7	3-5	2-1	11-1	0-0
14	14	Michigan	Big Ten	20-5	7-2	4-0	9-3	0-0
15	16	Maryland	Big Ten	21-5	9-2	2-1	10-2	0-0
16	12	Ohio St.	Big Ten	21-5	8-2	2-0	11-3	0-0
17	17	NC State	ACC	17-8	5-5	2-0	10-3	0-0
18	19	Tennessee	SEC	18-9	4-4	1-2	13-3	0-0
19	18	Florida St.	ACC	20-7	6-4	2-2	12-1	0-0
20	20	Colorado	Pac-12	20-5	8-4	1-0	11-1	0-0
21	21	Oregon	Pac-12	14-11	3-5	2-2	9-4	0-0
22	22	Alabama	SEC	19-6	8-2	1-1	10-3	0-0
23	23	North Carolina	ACC	18-7	4-5	2-1	12-1	0-0
24	24	Baylor	Big 12	16-8	4-2	2-2	10-4	0-0
25	26	UCLA	Pac-12	20-6	5-4	3-0	12-2	0-0
26	25	Creighton	Big East	18-6	11-2	0-0	7-4	0-0
27	27	Arizona	Pac-12	19-6	7-3	2-0	10-3	0-0
28	29	Ole Miss	SEC	20-5	6-3	1-1	13-1	0-0
29	28	Southern California	Pac-12	19-6	6-3	0-1	13-2	0-0
30	30	Middle Tenn.	C-USA	20-4	7-3	1-1	12-0	0-0

I used the AP ranking in the schedule remaining section because I think the AP in general is better at assessing quality within the top 25 than NET. As an example, I think Maryland is much closer to the 8th best team than the 15th best (and the committee agrees). I don't think Tennessee, Alabama, or Oregon are top 25 teams, but the NET has all three comfortably in.

NET is a good and important tool, but the committee clearly doesn't take it as gospel.

 

[visitingcock]

I used the AP ranking in the schedule remaining section because I think the AP in general is better at assessing quality within the top 25 than NET. As an example, I think Maryland is much closer to the 8th best team than the 15th best (and the committee agrees). I don't think Tennessee, Alabama, or Oregon are top 25 teams, but the NET has all three comfortably in.

NET is a good and important tool, but the committee clearly doesn't take it

Not gospel, but it is supposed to be their guide. Human Polls like AP are not supposed to be considered at all.

 

[Heytherego]

Okay, predict now if you want. If you change your prediction before 5 pm on the 28th, please quote your previous prediction to show the changes.


For me (for now):

1. SCar
2. Indiana
3. Stanford
4. UConn

Next four adjusted to create matchups
Utah
Iowa
LSU
Duke

Greenville
SCar v. Duke
UConn v. Utah

Seattle
Stanford v. Iowa
Indiana v. LSU

In the last reveal, they had uconn as the 4 overall seed (like you) but in the Seattle region. Why do you think they’d be in Greenville? Isn’t the 1 overall seed supposed to face the 4 overall seed (Seattle Vs Greenville regions)

 

[visitingcock]

In the last reveal, they had uconn as the 4 overall seed (like you) but in the Seattle region. Why do you think they’d be in Greenville? Isn’t the 1 overall seed supposed to face the 4 overall seed (Seattle Vs Greenville regions)

I am not certain whether the 1 vs 4 still applies since it reduced to two regional sites.

 

[KnightBridgeAZ]

I am not certain whether the 1 vs 4 still applies since it reduced to two regional sites.

There are still 4 regions. I think the NCAA is numbering them 1 and 2 in each site. So I'm not sure that Seattle vs. Greenville applies as stated, but 1 vs. 4 does, wherever they in fact are.

As to the original question, no. There is still a lot of flexibility in how things will go, this has been a season with some very odd upsets and I suspect they are not over.

 

[Gamecockfan77]

I don't think there is that much of a difference in being a 1, 2, or 3 seed in this format. The 2/3 get one more slightly tougher game basically (vs each other) but not enough to really complain about.

Actually being the 4 isn't that different either. Just inverts the order of facing #1 second weekend.

So it's a lot of talking about maybe not very important stuff to me.

 

[Bone Dog]

Here are the remaining regular season schedules of the Selection Committee's Top 11 teams. I'm using AP rankings within the schedules. I'll do predictions in a second post.

1. South Carolina- vs. Florida, at Ole Miss, at Tennessee, vs. Georgia
2. Indiana- vs. #12 Michigan, vs. Purdue, at #2 Iowa
3. Stanford- vs. #25 USC, vs. #16 UCLA, at #21 Colorado, at #4 Utah
4. UConn- vs. Creighton, at #14 Villanova, vs. St. John's, at DePaul, vs. Xavier
5. LSU- vs. Ole Miss, at Florida, at Vanderbilt, vs. Mississippi State
6. Utah- at #18 Arizona, at Arizona State, vs. California, vs. #3 Stanford
7. Iowa- vs. Wisconsin, at Nebraska, at #8 Maryland, vs. #2 Indiana
8. Duke- at #11 Virginia Tech, at Virginia, vs. NC State, vs. #19 North Carolina
9. Maryland- at Michigan State, vs. #7 Iowa, at #13 Ohio State
10. Notre Dame- vs. Louisville, at Pitt, vs. Georgia Tech, at Louisville
11. Michigan- at #2 Indiana, vs. #13 Ohio State, vs. Rutgers, at Wisconsin

Nice post. Thanks.

When I look at this list, what I see is a few teams who are likely to win out and a bunch that may not.

My guess is SC Stanford LSU ND win out

Indiana could lose any one of its three remaining, but I suspect they’ll win out.

UConn could lose any one of the its next four games. Xavier is probably a sure win. But the rest, if they catch us on another one of these down nights we’ve been having, could be losses. Or we could blow them all out.

Utah is likely to lose to Stanford and could lose to Arizona

Iowa could lose to Indiana or MD

Duke could win out, but could also lose to any of its remaining opponents, especially UNC and Va Tech

Michigan could lose two of their games, Indiana or tOSU

 

[Bone Dog]

Now for the prediction part — don’t hold me to any of this —

SC — IU — Stanford — LSU
Utah — UConn — ND — Iowa

Elite Eight matchups would be

SC - Iowa
IU - ND
Stanford - UConn
LSU - Utah

I like the look of all of those games, but especially IU - ND and LSU - Utah. Those could be tossup games. Stanford - UConn would be the rematch Stanford has been waiting for.

 

[hoopsnloops32]

Now for the prediction part — don’t hold me to any of this —

SC — IU — Stanford — LSU
Utah — UConn — ND — Iowa

Elite Eight matchups would be

SC - Iowa
IU - ND
Stanford - UConn
LSU - Utah

I like the look of all of those games, but especially IU - ND and LSU - Utah. Those could be tossup games. Stanford - UConn would be the rematch Stanford has been waiting for.

LSU is not getting a one seed. Even if they managed to beat South Carolina in the SEC tournament, which they won’t do, they aren’t getting a one seed. Their OOC schedule was historically bad.

 

[YKCornelius]

Okay, predict now if you want. If you change your prediction before 5 pm on the 28th, please quote your previous prediction to show the changes.


For me (for now):

1. SCar
2. Indiana
3. Stanford
4. UConn

Next four adjusted to create matchups
Utah
Iowa
LSU
Duke

Greenville
SCar v. Duke
UConn v. Utah

Seattle
Stanford v. Iowa
Indiana v. LSU

Great thread with lots of thought-provoking comments! However, the title of the thread is quite misleading: according to NCAA.com, the second reveal is scheduled for Thursday, 23 February during the Tennessee -South Carolina game. (Not to mention ,the 28th of February isn't even on a Sunday this year!).

 

[YKCornelius]

Not gospel, but it is supposed to be their guide. Human Polls like AP are not supposed to be considered at all.

Actually, although it certainly is a perception that is conveyed in numerous threads on both boards, your statement might not be correct. Here is verbatim taken from page 1 of the “NCAA DIVISION I WOMEN’S BASKETBALL CHAMPIONSHIP PRINCIPLES AND PROCEDURES FOR ESTABLISHING THE BRACKET” (with bold emphasis added by me) :

“Among the resources available to the committee are complete box scores, game summaries and notes, various computer rankings, head-to-head results, chronological results, Division I results, non-conference results, home and away results, results in the last twelve games, rankings, polls, injured and available/unavailable reports and the coaches’ regional advisory committee rankings.”

Naturally, there are two sides to debate. That specific quote notwithstanding, “polls” are not listed in the evaluation criteria shown on page 5 of the same document. Then again, there is nothing to suggest that the criteria on page 5 is a definitive, all-inclusive list either.

Hence, it is understandable why folks are confused about what’s under consideration and what is not. Selection criteria for WBB is simply a gallimaufry.

Here is the link:

https://www.ncaa.com/_flysystem/pub...ens-basketball-principles-procedures-2023.pdf