Poll on Expectations 2016 vs. 2019

[DefenseBB]

After the 2016 season when Stevie/Mo/Tuck completed the 4 year sweep of titles, our expectations were heavily tempered of what Chong, Gabby, Kia, KLS and Phee could bring us in that coming year. Some even predicted 5 losses for that team that went on an unbelievable run only to lose in OT on a last second shot by Morgan William.

So are your expectations higher, lower or about the same as that 2016-17 start of the year for this 2019-20 team? My expectation is higher for this team than that team based on what I have seen. I am not saying they. Will outperform that team (arguably my favorite season of all time due to the unexpected results they attained!) but I do think this team could surprise. What say you?

 

[pvdoggy]

After the 2016 season when Stevie/Mo/Tuck completed the 4 year sweep of titles, our expectations were heavily tempered of what Chong, Gabby, Kia, KLS and Phee could bring us in that coming year. Some even predicted 5 losses for that team that went on an unbelievable run only to lose in OT on a last second shot by Morgan William.

So are your expectations higher, lower or about the same as that 2016-17 start of the year for this 2019-20 team? My expectation is higher for this team than that team based on what I have seen. I am not saying they. Will outperform that team (arguably my favorite season of all time due to the unexpected results they attained!) but I do think this team could surprise. What say you?

Don't know what the outcome will be, but expectation for that 2016 team was quite low, from the fan.

 

[MilfordHusky]

I'd say roughly the same. The difference is that 2016-17 was coming off a fabulous season. They had nowhere to go but down. The 2019-20 season could be an improvement on the prior year, even without Lou and Phee.

I was fairly optimistic before we got Anna, Evelyn, and Evina. I saw Aubrey as a starter, but little depth. Now we have 2-3 more players. If Evina is eligible, I think we are as good as anyone.

 

[Centerstream]

Wouldn't it be a better poll if we knew who was actually going to be playing this season? Or are we just voting based upon the players that are currently eligible? (Which I guess makes sense at this moment.)

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

I think to me it makes a big difference WHO is eligible THIS year and who isn't!
If Evina is eligible I will have higher hopes for the Huskies this season than 2016!
She would add another experienced ball handler and/or shooter to the mix!

 

[BroadwayVa]

I'd say roughly the same. The difference is that 2016-17 was coming off a fabulous season. They had nowhere to go but down. The 2019-20 season could be an improvement on the prior year, even without Lou and Phee.

I was fairly optimistic before we got Anna, Evelyn, and Evina. I saw Aubrey as a starter, but little depth. Now we have 2-3 more players. If Evina is eligible, I think we are as good as anyone.

@MilfordHusky: You could UP the enthusiasm a bit. The potential for this team is all the way to the NC--POTENTIAL. Will they? Experience, Geno will tell you, is a key factor in getting to the FF. If you have been there getting there is easier, if the talent is with you.
ONO, was moving forward near the end of this season by leaps and bounds. With the 3 n 3 games she has had mucho experience against top talent and succeeded. Why shouldn't she be among the very best this season????
CW---The same words may be said about her AND she is no longer the 3 or 4th choice to score--she will be IT. This kid is among tEhe elite in talent and desire, if she is not restricted she can give us some whirling dervish type performance and the ND game in which she could not be stopped will be the Norm.
Westbrook, Ania, Evelyn, Griffin---are not only the cream on this cake they are REAL contributors, untested in a Uconn suit, certainly, but talent never the less . Ania and Westbrook have EXPERIENCE against top notch talent. Add the best coaching staff for women , in the world, and then ask----why is it not possible, even certain, they shall go all the way to the NC this season???? Hmmm?

 

[BroadwayVa]

I think to me it makes a big difference WHO is eligible THIS year and who isn't!
If Evina is eligible I will have higher hopes for the Huskies this season than 2016!
She would add another experienced ball handler and/or shooter to the mix!

Coach, you see much I don't ever see. The difference between expert and amateur but allow me a slight difference in opinion, please.
I believe, as posted above or below, that Ania has played against some of the best in the the world--so experience, a huge factors, is in her corner. Then too the kid is a fantastic talent. If Westbrook is proven not available to play that will be a disaster for HER but her alone. Uconn could and would use her talent if they could. But if Griffin proves to be everything I believe and CW takes the next 3 steps, add a healthy Touly, maybe Evelyn I think the immediate future is great-ooops forgot the greatest ingredient--ONO I believe she will be a FORCE both defensive (oh how we need that) and offensively.

 

[BroadwayVa]

Wouldn't it be a better poll if we knew who was actually going to be playing this season? Or are we just voting based upon the players that are currently eligible? (Which I guess makes sense at this moment.)

Take you your choice. No one makes money here, no one will be fired--it's just for fun. What ever way you want to play it or decide it is up to you.
Enjoy the moment. In December we can all do this again with all the players known and the FUN will be the same.

 

[AmeriConn]

@MilfordHusky: You could UP the enthusiasm a bit. The potential for this team is all the way to the NC--POTENTIAL. Will they? Experience, Geno will tell you, is a key factor in getting to the FF. If you have been there getting there is easier, if the talent is with you.
ONO, was moving forward near the end of this season by leaps and bounds. With the 3 n 3 games she has had mucho experience against top talent and succeeded. Why shouldn't she be among the very best this season????
CW---The same words may be said about her AND she is no longer the 3 or 4th choice to score--she will be IT. This kid is among tEhe elite in talent and desire, if she is not restricted she can give us some whirling dervish type performance and the ND game in which she could not be stopped will be the Norm.
Westbrook, Ania, Evelyn, Griffin---are not only the cream on this cake they are REAL contributors, untested in a Uconn suit, certainly, but talent never the less . Ania and Westbrook have EXPERIENCE against top notch talent. Add the best coaching staff for women , in the world, and then ask----why is it not possible, even certain, they shall go all the way to the NC this season???? Hmmm?

I like the way you think and especially the enthusiasm!

 

[TheFarmFan]

I get where people are coming from here, but it's impossible for me to think it's reasonable to say anything other than I have lower expectations than I had at this point leading up to the fall of 2016. Here's why:

In the fall of 2016, even with the loss of Stewwie, Tuck, and Mo, I would have said UConn had roughly 50/50 odds of another title, as I think most people would have - four straight titles, nearly two-year undefeated streak, and the most important factor "we have Geno, they don't." The Huskies had a few close calls, but were nevertheless undefeated and seemingly headed to another championship until the final seconds of the semifinals when Morgan William singlehandedly altered history. Until that point, I would have put roughly equal money on Uconn vs. "the field," because Geno had never given me any serious reason to think with the talent he had on that team he wouldn't/couldn't repeat yet again.

As of now, I'm not even prepared to give UConn the best odds of any team, let alone 50%+ odds: with Baylor and Oregon looking like the strongest pre-season teams, loaded frosh classes at Stanford and South Carolina, and the teams that have snakebit UConn in recent years such as MSU and Notre Dame, I just don't see the same kind of obvious path I expected UConn to have in fall of 2016. I feel like there's more parity among the top teams than just about ever, which means the relative odds for any given team have to be spread among the 5-7 reasonable contenders.

In retrospect, of course, there are lots of reasons to think UConn wasn't the odds on favorite for the 2016-17 season, but I think that only seems clear in retrospect, especially given that UConn is now in a three-year title drought.

All of that said, I'd certainly put money on UConn getting back to the final four. But I would have each of the past three years, too, and none of those years ended in a title either.

Now, speaking as a Stanford fan first and foremost... get back to me once Ms. Bueckers is running the point! I'm much more terrified of the UConn of the future than the UConn of this season, and I really wish Tara had one more season with Jones and Belibi before Bueckers shows up on the scene!

 

[chrissaran]

I'd say roughly the same. The difference is that 2016-17 was coming off a fabulous season. They had nowhere to go but down. The 2019-20 season could be an improvement on the prior year, even without Lou and Phee.

I was fairly optimistic before we got Anna, Evelyn, and Evina. I saw Aubrey as a starter, but little depth. Now we have 2-3 more players. If Evina is eligible, I think we are as good as anyone.

Improvement would be playing for the NC.

 

[Vowelguy]

I thought the F4 streak would end in 2016-17, and have about the same expectation for this team .... if Westbrook isn't eligible.

But if she is eligible that's a huge deal.

Also it's getting harder and harder to assess how teams matchup vs others given the volume of offseason changes.

 

[diggerfoot]

How the team gels matters a great deal. We all know instances of more talented teams not performing as well as less talented teams. So in terms of eye-catching, pleasing performance I had no expectations then nor now, because one can never know how chemistry shapes up when teams go through as much transformation as the two years being compared. However, ...

With the level of talent UConn had in 2016 and have this year, I expect(ed) the FF in both cases, but doubted we would win a championship. So, if that is the criteria my expectations are the same. That is not the criteria that formed my vote.

During the regular season I see two losses max, quite apart from how well we perform in relative terms to other UConn teams. I actually expect only one loss, since both Baylor and Oregon are at home I suspect we will win one of them, even if we lose to the same team later in the FF. In 2016 I was expecting two losses minimum. Like everyone except maybe TonyC I thought we would lose at Notre Dame that year. There were other tough away games as well. Obviously, I was wrong back then, but my expectation for regular season losses this year is better.

 

[bballnut90]

Expectations should be a lot higher for this squad IMO. You have three double figure scorers coming back, potentially a big time recruit being eligible and I'd expect ONO to make the standard sophomore jump in production. In 2016-17, all returnees were relatively unproven aside from Kia Nurse. A lot more proven talent on this roster, even if it lacks height and depth.

 

[TheFarmFan]

Expectations should be a lot higher for this squad IMO. You have three double figure scorers coming back, potentially a big time recruit being eligible and I'd expect ONO to make the standard sophomore jump in production. In 2016-17, all returnees were relatively unproven aside from Kia Nurse. A lot more proven talent on this roster, even if it lacks height and depth.

The 2015-16 statistics don't exactly suggest that KLS, Williams or Collier were unproven - just underutilized. Their stat lines were pretty dang impressive for being options #4-7. And Nurse actually had the worst FG% of the bunch. And the even utilization rates aren't that different - those four scored 4 fewer points per game in the preceding season than Dangerfield, Walker, Williams, and ONO did.

I agree that they had bigger shoes to fill than the 2019-20 crew does, but I would remind again that you need to compare to the competition, and I will maintain UConn was indisputably among the three best teams going into the 2016-17 season, whereas I am not even sure UConn is among the top 4 best teams this coming season. There are so many more new pieces to this team, they don't have the confidence of a team that's won 4 straight championships, and Baylor and Oregon seem to be a step function better positioned to make a title run from day one than any other team. That doesn't mean the UConn pieces won't all fit together (especially if Westbrook is cleared for play).

Another way to put it: if you ran 100 simulations of the 2016-17 season, I think UConn wins the national championship in at least 40 of them, and probably closer to 50. The Morgan William clutch shot was beyond fluky, and UConn had already beaten SCar by 10 earlier in the season. I'm not sure I'd give UConn more than 30 out of 100 right now even if I were being generous, with so many open questions about Westbrook, new faces, etc. And with Ionescu returning for a final season when she probably would have been the #1 WNBA draft option, you have to think she will do everything in her power to win a championship. I'm not sure I sense the same kind of hunger from this UConn team, though it'll be interesting to see what emerges.

I have much higher expectations from UConn for 2020-2021. This season feels to me more like a transition to the next championship-caliber era.

 

[Grad1990]

With Dangerfield and Williams coming back as legitimate 1st team All-America candidates (best backcourt in the nation and guard play wins championships!); and with Walker and Ono both making the leap to All America status, who the fifth, sixth and seventh players in the rotation might be is more of a side story than a major determinant in UConn's '19/2020 destiny.

Only an Ionescu Oregon stands in the way. Baylor will be Baylor meaning they won't improve enough to compete with this years two elite teams

Geno against Sabrina; I would expect Geno to outcoach Kelly Graves in the big game which will likely feature a Taurasi like Sabrina Ionescu.

The odds favor Uconn against the field, which does not at all compare to the 2016 situation.

 

[bballnut90]

View attachment 45858

The 2015-16 statistics don't exactly suggest that KLS, Williams or Collier were unproven - just underutilized. Their stat lines were pretty dang impressive for being options #4-7. And Nurse actually had the worst FG% of the bunch. And the even utilization rates aren't that different - those four scored 4 fewer points per game in the preceding season than Dangerfield, Walker, Williams, and ONO did.

I agree that they had bigger shoes to fill than the 2019-20 crew does, but I would remind again that you need to compare to the competition, and I will maintain UConn was indisputably among the three best teams going into the 2016-17 season, whereas I am not even sure UConn is among the top 4 best teams this coming season. There are so many more new pieces to this team, they don't have the confidence of a team that's won 4 straight championships, and Baylor and Oregon seem to be a step function better positioned to make a title run from day one than any other team. That doesn't mean the UConn pieces won't all fit together (especially if Westbrook is cleared for play).

Another way to put it: if you ran 100 simulations of the 2016-17 season, I think UConn wins the national championship in at least 40 of them, and probably closer to 50. The Morgan William clutch shot was beyond fluky, and UConn had already beaten SCar by 10 earlier in the season. I'm not sure I'd give UConn more than 30 out of 100 right now even if I were being generous, with so many open questions about Westbrook, new faces, etc. And with Ionescu returning for a final season when she probably would have been the #1 WNBA draft option, you have to think she will do everything in her power to win a championship. I'm not sure I sense the same kind of hunger from this UConn team, though it'll be interesting to see what emerges.

I have much higher expectations from UConn for 2020-2021. This season feels to me more like a transition to the next championship-caliber era.

It was hard to predict how KLS/Williams/Collier would adjust to new roles. All did an excellent job in their roles in 15-16, but all had very limited roles and responsibilities compared to what they took on in 16-17.

Williams/Walker/Dangerfield have stepped up and taken on bigger roles than the previous 3 had, so I think there is a stronger baseline than there was entering 15-16.

I also think UCONN is cut and dry a top 3 team this year, especially if Westbrook is eligible. They lack size and quality depth but are more top heavy than anyone sans Baylor and Oregon.

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

This years Huskies are playing with "house" $ as there is not as much expected from this bunch as in past years!
But they have an athletic group that is led by Crystal Dangerfield, ONO, Walker, and Williams, 4 truly talented players so if they get the help from Evelyn, Westbrook is eligible (we hope), our 2 freshmen, and Batouly is as healthy as she looked this off-season, we'll be one of the top 3 all season!
The health of the squad is paramount to the success or failure of the team!
This group can surprise a lot of the Talking Suits!