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Message: [QUOTE="Bone Dog, post: 5291688, member: 12088"] Sensei, the problem with this analysis is that you’ve normalized the data as a per-40 across the season. I’m not criticizing your arithmetic. I just think it’s not the right analytical approach. If I want to know what to expect from Geno’s roster next season, I wouldn’t look at season long averages. I’d look at what the veterans did in March and April, or even just what they did in the tournament. This is what they did against the toughest competition once they’d completely clicked as a team. This is what they’re likely to bring to the new roster in November. Paige Azzi and Sarah combined for roughly 60 points per game in the tournament. Subtract Paige from that and you have two players who have shown they can each regularly produce ~20 pts/g when it really counts. We also have evidence KK and Ash can produce ~9 points between them, and that Jana and Ice can score another 4 points between them. This means the returning core is likely to produce ~53 points per game. This is based on what they’ve actually done in Geno’s system playing with each other. We can speculate much more loosely about the rest of the roster. But the evidence we have for them is sketchier. Can Serah replace Paige’s ~20 points playing in a new system with new teammates? She averaged 19 points at Wisconsin when she was the primary scoring option. How will that translate to her new situation? My expectation is for some lower number, perhaps 15 or 16 points. Will Kayleigh bring her 6 points entire into Geno’s system or should we expect something a little less? My quess is ~5 points. That gets us a to possible 73 points from players we can speculate on with some relationship to evidence. I have no idea what to expect from the rest of the roster, though I have high hopes for all of them. Caroline and Ayanna haven’t played recently enough to know what to expect. Perhaps they’ll surprise us with their production. We know a little about Morgan and Allie, but we don’t know how much playing time they’ll get. As for Kelis Blanca and Gandy, we have even less to go on for our speculation. Can we get the 17 points you’re hoping for from these 7 players? I really have no idea. And this shows me the limitations of this approach. This is why in an earlier post I looked at it from the other end, so to speak, and asked how many scoring opportunities this roster might create. There are fewer unknowns this way, though it’s still speculative too. A new rotation with several new parts and some veterans with an extra year to develop chemistry among themselves — there’s reason to be hopeful, but also plenty of uncertainty. [/QUOTE]

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