I love this current team and I think they have a great shot to win it all. But, to be honest, I have trouble concluding that this is the best chance to win since 2016.
We were undefeated going into the 2017 and 2018 Final Fours. Those teams had won their Elite Eight games by 38 and 29 points, respectively.
I am still in shock that we lost to Mississippi State in 2017. And that Notre Dame game in 2018 was one that got away.
But the big advantage this team has over those teams is depth. It is also a bigger team than the 2017 and 2018 versions, and it is overall a better defensive team than those teams were, even though they had incredible defenders in Kia and Gabby.
And strange as it may sound, this team may now actually be healthier than those teams were. Kia was far from full strength in 2017, and Lou and Gabby were not nearly 100% in 2018.
If you go back to 2017, Katie Lou wasn't quite fully healthy though she could play well enough through the regionals. But more important, the pressure on the team just kept building up even if they won't acknowledge it: going through that long 111 game winning streak and all the attention it was getting.....for a team that no one was repeating the role they played before except Kia. They also had a very short rotation and the starting 5 likely was going more on adrenaline during the tournament.
So, the start to the Miss State game where they quickly fell behind was not surprising. That they recovered to tie the game with seconds to spare in regulation showed their resilience. The dynamic of failing to score on their last shot stunned and they were slow to react defensively. So, I understood the loss, though no less painful.
However, I was really disappointed with the loss to ND the following year. We had Azura Stevens instead of Natalie Butler, so big improvement, right? In the back of my mind, Geno didn't have full trust re: Azura on defense and went to the extent of playing Gabby even when she was less than 100% in crucial moments. I never really figured out why he was unable or unwilling to play them together more....including or maybe especially, the ND game. This game I didn't understand why UConn lost and it still haunts.
The others after were lesser potentials.
I think last year was derailed when Nika was injured on top of a very inexperienced team. The defensive intensity they had when she was on the floor was missing against Arizona, even in the games before that but it was not noticeable because they dominated, including against Iowa. Still, even if Nika was healthy and the faced Stanford in the final, I don't think they would have won, given the potential matchups.....unless, of course, Paige played an otherworldly game.
So, this year's team, with last year's starters intact and more experienced along with the addition of three excellent players who have helped save the season, has the quality depth that those other teams did not have. Added psychological bonus: through their travails during the season during which they have learned to dig deep to succeed, they were counted out. Now that they are healthy, they would want to show them who they really are, won't they?
The Huskies will be hunting like a pack of wolves and woe unto the Wolfpack if they are in the same Regional.