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Message: [QUOTE="intlzncster, post: 3006014, member: 56"] Note the last line. [INDENT][URL='http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/25701582/destroying-myths-eight-2018-nfl-playoff-teams-divisional-round#ne'][I][B]The myth:[/B] The Patriots have a bend-but-don't-break defense.[/I][/URL][/INDENT] [INDENT][/INDENT] [INDENT]I have a whole list of Patriots myths I want to evaluate in a column one day, but one classic trope surrounding the Belichick-era Patriots is that they bend without breaking, giving up easy yards before shutting down opposing teams in the red zone. When you look at the yardage and point totals at the end of the season, the Patriots invariably rank way worse in yards than they do in points. The same thing is true this season, as the Patriots rank 21st in yards allowed per game and seventh in scoring defense.[/INDENT] [INDENT][/INDENT] [INDENT]It's a good story, but it isn't borne out by reality. I've looked at red zone performance several times in the past [URL='http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/page/BarnwellNFLPreview160729/nfl-best-worst-red-zone-means-2016-season'](most recently in 2016)[/URL] and found that it tends to be remarkably inconsistent from year to year. History suggests that teams tend to play about as well in the red zone as they do in the other 80 yards of the field.[/INDENT] [INDENT][/INDENT] [INDENT]That's true for the Patriots too, and we can use ESPN's expected points metric to prove it. If the Patriots were a bend-but-don't-break defense, they would rank relatively low in expected points per snap on plays outside of the 20, but then improve dramatically in the same category once teams make it to the New England 20-yard line. Instead, here's where the Patriots rank on defense in each of those two categories going back through 2006, which is how far ESPN's expected points model stretches:[/INDENT] [INDENT][/INDENT] [INDENT][/INDENT] [INDENT][ATTACH=full]38558[/ATTACH][/INDENT] [INDENT][/INDENT] [INDENT]The Patriots have actually been slightly [I]worse[/I] inside the red zone than we might have expected, given their work over the rest of the field. Last year might coincidentally have been one of the few times they could have been considered a bend-but-don't-break defense, but the trend hasn't stuck around this season. New England is allowing teams to score touchdowns on [URL='https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestatsdef']58.7 percent of their red zone trips[/URL], which ranks 16th in the league.[/INDENT] [INDENT][/INDENT] [INDENT]When you think about it, the bend-but-don't-break idea doesn't make much sense. Why would a team [I]want[/I] to just let a team move the ball into field goal range? If it were something the Patriots were doing, wouldn't Bill Belichick want them to stop teams earlier in possessions and get the ball back in Brady's hands? Belichick certainly preaches the value of stopping opposing teams in the red zone, but so does every other defensive coach in football.[/INDENT] [INDENT][/INDENT] [INDENT]Ryan Clark says that the difference for the Chargers is going to be Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram's ability to close the pocket on Tom Brady.[/INDENT] [INDENT][/INDENT] [INDENT]In reality, the discrepancy between yards and points has more to do with the Patriots' offense than its defense. Brady & Co. have been moving the ball downfield and scoring consistently throughout the past 13 years (with the [URL='http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/8644/matt-cassel']Matt Cassel[/URL] year from 2008 as a notable exception), which has impacted the defense's numbers.[/INDENT] [INDENT][/INDENT] [INDENT]Since 2006, the Patriots' defense has inherited an average starting field position with 73.7 yards to go, meaning that opposing offenses have had to travel further for their touchdowns than any other team in the league. Because the offense holds onto the ball, it has faced an average of only 11.4 drives per game, the seventh fewest over the same time frame. The Patriots also have defended 2,728 plays over that time frame with a lead of 15 points or more, 832 more than any other team in football. With a big lead, teams can play prevent and allow teams to rack up yardage as long as they burn clock. [B]When you say that the Patriots have a bend-but-don't-break defense, what you really mean is that they have a great offense.[/B][/INDENT] [/QUOTE]

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