Path to the Tournament

[smoothcriminal]

the goal of this season was and still remains to be: find a way to get into the big dance. Be a top 64 team to stay relevant. It is part and parcel to the overall long term goal of returning UConn to blue blood and championship contender status.

sitting here 7-3, let’s figure out what needs to be done to still achieve the season objective.
Some context - AAC tourney bids by year:
2015: 2
2016: 4
2017: 2
2018: 3

Given overall ncaab parity this year, I think we can safely look for 3 AAC bids.

I would think two clear paths for UConn:
Path 1 - beat Villanova, creating two solid OOC wins, and finish top 4 in conference regular season play

Path 2 - finish OOC play 9-4 (cuse only solid win) and finish top 2 in conference regular season play

Path 3 - lose lose lose until the aac tourney and run the table

I would be nervous about losing to Villanova and not finishing top 2 regular season in case someone like Wichita wins the tourney out of no where.

What am I missing? And Who are the likely 3 teams?

 

[Slasher]

Houston, Cincy and UCF and probably top three right now and UCF is definitely shaky at #3. Memphis could be dangerous especially with the conference tournament at the FedEx Forum. Temple is another team to watch. Tusla is solid and are always a tough out. Everyone else is a dumpster fire.

 

[smoothcriminal]

Cinci seems like a lock this year

 

[willie99]

The AAC is exceeding expectations on the court. I think 4, maybe even 5 is plausible. At the strong conference results is going to improve all our SOS's, which feeds all our SOS's even more (it's a self fulfilling prophecy dontchaknow )

In the hunt?
UConn
UCF
First weekend Cinci
Houston
Temple
Tulsa

(not in any particular order)

 

[RayIsTheGOAT]

This team feels like the most bubbly bubble team we've ever had. Beat up on competition worse than us, lose to better teams, have 2 or 3 good resume wins and then the conference tournaments determine our fate. I actually wouldn't be too unhappy being an NIT team, we could really make some noise there.

I wouldn't rule us out of winning the AAC either. We just have to stay healthy and get Wilson and Diarra squarely into the rotation, and then I'm really not scared of any AAC team with the level of effort our guys play with under Hurley. Sure, Houston and Cinci could turn out to just be better teams by the end of the year (still not buying stock on UCF- super overrated imo), but I think this UConn team is going to be a LOT better come Feb. and March and a really tough out in the AAC. I still would take our group of guards against most in the country.

EDIT: Tulsa and Temple deserve some respect too, perhaps they turn out to be in the mix as well. But I still think we have more talent than the rest of the AAC, it's just a matter of putting it all together.

 

[Horatio]

Path 1

 

[Wordbomar]

10-3 OOC with wins over Nova and Cuse would likely require only 12-6 in conference play to be on the bubble.

9-4 with only beating Cuse would likely require 14-4 in conference.

 

[pj]

I think 3 AAC teams is the most we can expect. Houston and Cincy probably in, and then UCF, UConn, Temple fighting it out. I think we're #3.

But I think we have the potential to win the conference tourney. We won't be best in full season resume, but we might be playing the best basketball in March.

 

[Sphinx]

Back in 2016, UConn won the AAC tourney, went to the dance and even survived to the second round. If some here feel some residue glow from that accomplishment, they certainly don't express it regularly.

Point is, UConn is about NC's, and hence the goal of this season, or any season, is to win the NC or take some measurable step toward that goal. Since UConn has no chance to win the NC this year, there is no requirement that it make the tournament. The goal of the season is to take the measurable step.

I submit that the measurable step is to develop a cadre of 8 players, thoroughly schooled in the Hurley ethic and the Hurley style of play, to which can be added a recruiting class of five 4 & 5 star players. All we need see on the floor is progress toward developing that cadre. The won-loss record will only be a way of measuring it, incidental in itself and heavily dependent on just how good Houston, Cincy, UCF, Memphis, Temple and Tulsa turn out to be. A 20-11 record going into the AAC tourney (9-4 pre-conference and 11-7 conference) may not get us into the NCAA but may well indicate "goal achieved" for 2018-19.

 

[Storrs South]

According to KenPom:
1. Cincy
2. Houston
3. UCF
4. Temple
5. UConn

According to NET (doesn't include FSU game yet):
1. Houston
2. Cincy
3. UConn
4. Temple
5. UCF

According to Sagarin:
1. Cincy
2. UCF
3. Houston
4. UConn
5. Temple

 

[Rocktheworld]

What am I missing?

My personal favorite: the plan where we just WIN THE WHOLE DAMN THING

 

[Ts5034]

I said in another thread that 11-7 or 10-8 in AAC play should be a reasonable worst case scenario based on what we have seen. If we take care of business vs Manhattan and Drexel, that would put us at 19-20 wins heading into the conference tournament. If we beat Villanova, that changes things as well.

 

[Drew]

Bracketology 2019: Odds To Make The NCAA Tournament

gives UConn a 24% chance to make the tournament and a 7% chance of securing the AAC auto bid.

Has Houston and Cincinnati as 4's. UCF as a 5.

Projected records:

1. Houston: 25-6 (88% chance to make the tournament)
2. Cincinnati: 25-6 (95% chance to make the tournament)
3. UCF 22-8 (78% chance to make the tournament)
4. Temple 20-11 (41% chance to make the tournament)
5. UConn 20-11 (24% chance to make the tournament)
6. Tulsa 17-14 (7% chance to make the tournament)
7. Memphis 16-15 (8% chance to make the tournament)

 

[Wordbomar]

If UCF goes 22-8 they will not be a 5 seed thats crazy

 

[Hi-Low]

Too early to say (obviously) but beating Nova would help. Avoid any bad losses, win a quality AAC game on the road & no more than 5 AAC loses.................22-9 should be in anything less iffy.

 

[JMick]

I think we can head into the AAC tournament with 20 wins. Win two games there and we are firmly on the bubble. If we can somehow beat Villanova that will help our chances.

 

[HooperScooper]

To be honest I'm not going to worry myself all season about making the NCAA Tournament. Just watch each game, root them on to wins and hope for improvement. I'll just drive myself crazy if I'm going to worry about the NCAA Tournament all the time. We'll see where there are when the AAC Tournament comes.

 

[amidagoat]

IMO beating NOVA is necessary. Right now Cuse still seems shaky so we don't know how solid of a win that will look come to March. I guarantee Nova makes the dance.

 

[Towney007]

Unfortunately, ratings systems don't pick the field -a highly questionable group of humans do.

We need to basically win the tournament. There's no way we can sit on a 20-11 record having lost most of our crucial games and expect in any way to get in. We're going to be pretty decent though and we'll make a solid run at things. I actually think we're going to be a legitimate cream of the crop NIT team. We could legitimately win that tournament this year.

 

[BFieldHusky]

Obviously beating Villanova changes a lot, but assuming they don't...have to avoid the "bad" loss in conference, and win against the good teams in our league. We get UCF, Cincy and Temple twice, with single games against Houston, Memphis and Tulsa. If they can go 6-3 versus that group, and then take care of business against teams they should, they might be in the tournament. Sometimes avoid the big loss is as just as important as the good wins.

 

[BFieldHusky]

Bracketology 2019: Odds To Make The NCAA Tournament

gives UConn a 24% chance to make the tournament and a 7% chance of securing the AAC auto bid.

Has Houston and Cincinnati as 4's. UCF as a 5.

Projected records:

1. Houston: 25-6 (88% chance to make the tournament)
2. Cincinnati: 25-6 (95% chance to make the tournament)
3. UCF 22-8 (78% chance to make the tournament)
4. Temple 20-11 (41% chance to make the tournament)
5. UConn 20-11 (24% chance to make the tournament)
6. Tulsa 17-14 (7% chance to make the tournament)
7. Memphis 16-15 (8% chance to make the tournament)

I just don't get the UCF love so far this year. They are 20 + spots behind us in the NET already, and their OOC schedule was kind of lacking. They beat Alabama at home and Western Kentucky on a neutral court, but also lost to Missouri and then lost at home to Florida Atlantic. I think as of TODAY, UConn has a much better resume. And so does the NET so far.

 

[JMick]

I just don't get the UCF love so far this year. They are 20 + spots behind us in the NET already, and their OOC schedule was kind of lacking. They beat Alabama at home and Western Kentucky on a neutral court, but also lost to Missouri and then lost at home to Florida Atlantic. I think as of TODAY, UConn has a much better resume. And so does the NET so far.

There's no reason we can't beat UCF twice. They don't look all that impressive. pre-season hype is still carrying them

 

[kemba]

Back in 2016, UConn won the AAC tourney, went to the dance and even survived to the second round. If some here feel some residue glow from that accomplishment, they certainly don't express it regularly.

Point is, UConn is about NC's, and hence the goal of this season, or any season, is to win the NC or take some measurable step toward that goal. Since UConn has no chance to win the NC this year, there is no requirement that it make the tournament. The goal of the season is to take the measurable step.

I submit that the measurable step is to develop a cadre of 8 players, thoroughly schooled in the Hurley ethic and the Hurley style of play, to which can be added a recruiting class of five 4 & 5 star players. All we need see on the floor is progress toward developing that cadre. The won-loss record will only be a way of measuring it, incidental in itself and heavily dependent on just how good Houston, Cincy, UCF, Memphis, Temple and Tulsa turn out to be. A 20-11 record going into the AAC tourney (9-4 pre-conference and 11-7 conference) may not get us into the NCAA but may well indicate "goal achieved" for 2018-19.

Tournament experience for the underclassmen and exposure are both important. Yes we can potentially miss the tournament but still show we are moving in the right direction, but making the tournament is still a reasonable goal for this roster to shoot for. And being in the tournament is more fun than not being in the tournament, regardless of whether or not we are reminiscing about a first or second round loss exit years down the road.

 

[smoothcriminal]

Tournament experience for the underclassmen and exposure are both important. Yes we can potentially miss the tournament but still show we are moving in the right direction, but making the tournament is still a reasonable goal for this roster to shoot for. And being in the tournament is more fun than not being in the tournament, regardless of whether or not we are reminiscing about a first or second round loss exit years down the road.

This. Making the tournament is everything. It’s why you play college ball. You just wanna be in the dance. It’s where crazy things happen, where you develop new fans, gain exposure, and Attract recruits. I don’t want a third year in a row of not being in everyone’s bracket, being out of the public conversation. Sure, Hurley looks like he’s got this program in the right direction, but let’s make the GD NCAA tournament again.

 

[gtcam]

If UConn takes care of business in the conference there is nothing to worry about BUT that means that DH has to straighten out the 3 and 4 position defensively - the bigger, older teams are killing UConn at this position. I wish that Polley could be the answer but the kid shows no desire to tough it up on D. Sid needs to get bigger and stronger but think he could be the answer. Free throw accuracy is puzzling - do they practice this at all?
Cinci and Houston appear to be the teams to beat but Temple and UCF could be surprises, Memphis is a train wreck waiting to happen - lots of talent but zero direction.
UConn could beat every team but also could lose to 4 or 5.