Paper Tigers Part I

[Rooster C.]

As we will soon be heading in to the Holiday break and conference play I thought it was a good time to take a look at some of the remaining "Paper Tigers" out there headed for a reality check.

Part 2 will address those ranked (and nearly-ranked) teams that are likely to suffer a similar awakening.

1)LSU : No remaining undefeated team has had a weaker schedule. SOS rating is 234 and seriously over-ranked at #11

2)USC : This will change soon as they host UCLA and Texas, followed by a patsy and then hit the road for games against Oregon State, Oregon, and UCLA. SOS rating is 203 Update: Well they lost to UCLA but it was close.

3)St. John's : They had a big win over Creighton but only won by 4 over Memphis and 5 over UTSA. Luckily for them their upcoming schedule could see them continue for another 4 games before facing the meat of their Big East schedule. SOS rating is 168

4)Virginia : No doubt they're off to the best start in a very long time. But reality is just around the corner : Morgan State(home),Duke(away),Georgia Tech(home),Virginia Tech and NC State(away), and North Carolina(home) ouch!!! SOS rating is 154

5)Arkansas : SOS is 103 . Up to this point their only quality win was over Kansas State. Having said that, it a relatively down year for the SEC overall and they will probably finish near the top of their conference. We will learn more about them in the near future when they visit Creighton and host Oregon. Other than South Carolina they could easily win any or all of their remaining conference games. Only a "Paper Tiger" due to their schedule up to this point.

6)Rice : SOS is 95 but it's a relative weak conference with only a couple of teams likely to challenge them the rest of the way. They could finish the season with only a couple of losses and still not be a very good team overall.

7)Kansas : Not so much of a "Paper Tiger" but other than their win over Arizona (another "Paper Tiger") they have yet to play Nebraska, Baylor(twice),Texas(twice), Oklahoma(twice), Iowa State(twice), and Kansas State. SOS rating is 84

 

[uconnbaseball]

Rice is a good team with multiple double digit wins over (sketchy) p5 teams. UH was close today, but that was a rivalry game. No one thinks Rice is going to win it all, but they’ve got a good program & isn’t overrated in the slightest. They remind me of our baseball team.

Agree with the rest of the list. How is LSU 11?

 

[UcMiami]

Good list and their are others out there of similar ilk. In general most of the P5 schools have the worst collective schedules I think I have ever seen - each P5 seems to have a few schools that are actually challenging themselves and the rest are racking up wins against cupcakes to inflate the conference SOS ranking.

I would probably leave St John's and Rice out of the list - they are not ranked haven't been ranked in a long while, and so them playing a mediocre schedule isn't news. They are maybe performing better than they expected even with the crap scheduling.

 

[Floridaduck]

Small note: Arkansas is not hosting Oregon. Opening game of the San Diego Invitational. Ohio State and South Florida in the other bracket. We will learn a lot about all four teams in this one

 

[Bone Dog]

I like Arkansas -- color me deluded -- but they have good size, though perhaps they're a little undermanned in the backcourt. Not having Goforth available hurts them, clearly. And playing Saylor at pg can work for a little while, but they'll need Daniels back soon. Saylor is getting good minutes stretched between two positions, pg and pf, neither of which seem like natural fits for her. I suspect it will prove to have been a golden opportunity.

 

[Coler]

I don't think we can call LSU a "paper tiger" before we see how they play against Oregon State, or begin SEC play. I mean on paper we have all the pieces to be really really good, and I'm still saying that we will finish #2 in the SEC.

Plus Kim is a really good coach who will have the team ready.

But we'll see.

 

[Rooster C.]

Plus Kim is a really good coach who will have the team ready.

As Mike Tyson once said "Everybody has a plan till they get punched in the face". While I agree that they have the pieces to excel, especially in a weakened SEC this season, I believe she set them up for trouble with that super-weak schedule even by cupcake standards.

 

[SECbbfan24]

I personally think LSU will get slapped in the face big time in the coming weeks but then regroup down the road and having a really solid year. The price to pay of not facing quality competition IMO. I'm fine scheduling light given replacing the entire roster basically but she over did it big time. It seems apparent she knows she did judging by some of her comments and demeanor but she can't walk it back now. Its too late.

So I won't be shocked to see struggles and some losses here and there. That said I think the potential of this group is higher as they do have a more well rounded team in general. I feel they have 'more' players capable of stepping up and leading versus being only reliant on a couple kids like last year. But more talent does not equal better, chemistry is crucial. Despite some of the large margin of victories, its still pretty apparent how much more they need to gel as a team collectively. The defense is not on the same page too often. Kids are not in the correct spots rotating, lack of communications, etc. Every single player on the roster minus 2 kids played in another college program or came from HS.

Starters:
-Reese (Maryland)
-Carson (WVU)
-Morris (LSU)
-Flaujae (High School)
-Ladazhia (Missouri)

Bench:
Sa'Myah (High School)
Poole (Ohio State)
Poa (JUCO)
Bartlett (LSU)
Williams (High School)

This is a good example of why you need to build the foundation from HS recruits. But the roster isn't Kims fault, the team was senior heavy last year anyways and some of Fargas's players were not going to cut it in her plans moving forward so they transferred. It is what is is this year, hope they are clicking and playing their best ball come March.

 

[Coler]

I personally think LSU will get slapped in the face big time in the coming weeks but then regroup down the road and having a really solid year. The price to pay of not facing quality competition IMO. I'm fine scheduling light given replacing the entire roster basically but she over did it big time. It seems apparent she knows she did judging by some of her comments and demeanor but she can't walk it back now. Its too late.

So I won't be shocked to see struggles and some losses here and there. That said I think the potential of this group is higher as they do have a more well rounded team in general. I feel they have 'more' players capable of stepping up and leading versus being only reliant on a couple kids like last year. But more talent does not equal better, chemistry is crucial. Despite some of the large margin of victories, its still pretty apparent how much more they need to gel as a team collectively. The defense is not on the same page too often. Kids are not in the correct spots rotating, lack of communications, etc. Every single player on the roster minus 2 kids played in another college program or came from HS.

Starters:
-Reese (Maryland)
-Carson (WVU)
-Morris (LSU)
-Flaujae (High School)
-Ladazhia (Missouri)

Bench:
Sa'Myah (High School)
Poole (Ohio State)
Poa (JUCO)
Bartlett (LSU)
Williams (High School)

This is a good example of why you need to build the foundation from HS recruits. But the roster isn't Kims fault, the team was senior heavy last year anyways and some of Fargas's players were not going to cut it in her plans moving forward so they transferred. It is what is is this year, hope they are clicking and playing their best ball come March.

We'll see if your right about getting slapped in the face. I hope your wrong.

I have enough losing with Rutgers this season. Lol

 

[UcMiami]

Kim is following the pattern she developed at Baylor - when she had a good veteran team she would schedule a quality OOC, when she had question marks she scheduled cupcakes for her OOC. The LSU OOC schedule this year is terrible, but pretty typical of some of the Baylor schedules after Griner and Sims left.

 

[Gamecockfan77]

As Mike Tyson once said "Everybody has a plan till they get punched in the face". While I agree that they have the pieces to excel, especially in a weakened SEC this season, I believe she set them up for trouble with that super-weak schedule even by cupcake standards.

I don't have a gauge yet of how good LSU is, but it's astonishing how bad that schedule will be.

 

[Dwilliams02]

Another day. Another hit about LSU schedule lol

 

[dws3665]

Arkansas takes down Creighton in Omaha. Maybe they're up to being a "papier mâché" tiger. Next up: Oregon and then Ohio St or South Florida in San Diego. Should learn a lot from those games.

 

[Bone Dog]

Arkansas takes down Creighton in Omaha. Maybe they're up to being a "papier mâché" tiger. Next up: Oregon and then Ohio St or South Florida in San Diego. Should learn a lot from those games.

I haven’t had a chance to watch the game. But I notice that Saylor had a double-double and Jersey Wolfenbarger didn’t play much. Was she injured? There’s much to like about this year’s team. Arkansas led most of the game. Creighton outrebounded them by 10, which fits their hustling style of play, but they shot very poorly.

 

[visitingcock]

I haven’t had a chance to watch the game. But I notice that Saylor had a double-double and Jersey Wolfenbarger didn’t play much. Was she injured? There’s much to like about this year’s team. Arkansas led most of the game. Creighton outrebounded them by 10, which fits their hustling style of play, but they shot very poorly.

Without Saylor’s 11 rebounds, Creighton would have totally dominated. Her teammates didn’t help on the boards much at all. She’s having a very nice freshman season.

 

[dws3665]

Jersey played and isn't injured, but she got less time than the previous 3 games because Daniels was back for this game. Wolfenbarger is actually playing well, imo, but she is still figuring out her offensive game.

 

[Bone Dog]

Jersey played and isn't injured, but she got less time than the previous 3 games because Daniels was back for this game. Wolfenbarger is actually playing well, imo, but she is still figuring out her offensive game.

Interesting. With Daniels and Spencer in the lineup, Saylor doesn't have to cover the point and can return to a more natural position. And I see Spencer had a big game, too, probably because Spencer was back. Does sitting Wolfenbarger mean they are experimenting with a smaller lineup, or is it just because Creighton has no bigs?

 

[JellyBean]

I haven’t had a chance to watch the game. But I notice that Saylor had a double-double and Jersey Wolfenbarger didn’t play much. Was she injured? There’s much to like about this year’s team. Arkansas led most of the game. Creighton outrebounded them by 10, which fits their hustling style of play, but they shot very poorly.

Saylor has been a perfect fit with Arkansas. From her rebounding and defense on down to her shooting and passing ability.

 

[JellyBean]

USC did not look too bad against UCLA. USC kept the game close at first and then got down by 11 points but then managed to get within one point before losing in the end. Both teams are going to be interesting down the stretch.

 

[dws3665]

Interesting. With Daniels and Spencer in the lineup, Saylor doesn't have to cover the point and can return to a more natural position. And I see Spencer had a big game, too, probably because Spencer was back. Does sitting Wolfenbarger mean they are experimenting with a smaller lineup, or is it just because Creighton has no bigs?

The starting lineup so far when everyone is healthy is Daniels, Spencer, Carr, Poffenbarger, and Barnum. Three 6'2" - ish players and two 5'9" players. They can shift that for match ups, but Dauda and Jersey are off the bench to inject some height, if needed. Jersey is playing more on the perimeter this year, consistent with her experience and skill set. She was down low last year by necessity.

 

[triaddukefan]

We will find out about UVA Wednesday evening.

 

[JstVisiting]

I don’t see how you can cal the undefeated defending champs “paper tigers”

 

[CBus13]

I don’t see how you can cal the undefeated defending champs “paper tigers”

If you’re referring to USC in the OP, they are talking about Southern Cal, not South Carolina.

 

[Urshurak]

Another day. Another hit about LSU schedule lol

When every one of your opponents cafeterias still serve peanut butter and jelly with the crust cut off, it’s deserved.

 

[JellyBean]

We will find out about UVA Wednesday evening.

How about that Duke WBB's program!? Great win yesterday.