DefenseBB
Snark is always appreciated!
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Ok, I followed the "S" curve of the NCAA Committee with SC as #1, Iowa #8 all the way to Incarnate Word of #68. We know that it isn't perfect due to locations, conferences with multiple teams in the field that should not meet until S16 so the "S" curve could be off by 2, 3 or 4 slots or 1 seeding slot (#2 to #3, or #10 to #9). I then looked at Massey rating and WarrenNolan NET. I subtracted the bid of the NCAA against both rating services. For the most part, of the Top 50 teams (#1-12 seeds with the 2 #11 playins), are acceptable. There are 5 teams who seem under-seeded given their body of work and 8 teams Over-seeded. Ironically enough, the committee more closely resembled Massey than WarrenNolan which uses NET.
5 Under-seeded:
North Carolina at #17 (5 seed in Greensboro) could make a claim for #3 or #4 seed. Their Massey was #9 and WN was #7. They don't even get to host.
Oregon at #20 and the #5 seed in Wichita, could have also made a claim for the top #4 and hosting. Massey-#15/WN-#12
UCF at #27 (Massey-23/WN-15) and #7 seed in Bridgeport was also done a disservice. A #5 or #6 would have been more appropriate.
Gonzaga #36 (#29/#25) and #9 seed in Spokane deserved a #7 seed.
Princeton #43 (#39/#22) and a #11 seed in Bridgeport, seems to have deserved a #7, #8 or #9 seed.
8 Over-seeded:
Iowa as seeded as the last #2 seed (8th overall). However Massey had them at 12 and WN at 13. Iowa State was #8/#9, North Carolina was #9/#7 as candidates. Iowa State beat Iowa so to me, ISU should have gotten the 2 seed and Iowa #3. That said, flipflopping the seeding is tolerable.
LSU #10 overall, #3 in Spokane (Massey-17/WN-21) is a definite bias. A #5 seed would have been more logical, but given the turnaround Kim produced in Baton Rouge, I would have been ok with a #4 seed.
Oklahoma #14 overall, #4 in Bridgeport. Massey-18 and WN-35 differ a lot on this Sooner team. They should be a #5 or #6 team, instead they get to host. I feel good for Jen B and all those players to make the NCAAT after the few years under Sherri Coale but they didn't earn the hosting.
Kentucky #22, #6 in Bridgeport. Massey-30/WN-#34 shows this rating too favorable. The two SEC talking heads-Fargas and Peck glowed about the 10 game winning streak. But what about the 4 straight losses before that 10 OR the losing of 8 of before that 10 gamer? Yes, the stunner against SC was a great item but this 10 game win streak was built against Alabama, Vandy, Auburn, MSU twice and Missouri. Also with injured LSU (Morris) and Tennessee (Horston) so let's take it with a grain of salt shall we? Nikki also intimated Baylor lost to Texas because Smith was hurt and that Baylor deserved the #1 over Louisville. She wasn't hurt long as she came back into the game and was productive but somehow Kentucky's win is more deserving than Texas despite their wins over hurt team leaders?
Washington State #30, #8 in Bridgeport was #35 Massey and #59 WN! Now you can see why some were surprised they even made the field. Frankly a #11 bid was more logical than #8.
Miami at #32, #8 in Greensboro had a great run in the ACC to go from Bubble to In. But Massey-#41 and WN-#42 clearly show they should be a #11 seed, not #8.
South Florida #33, #9 in Greensboro. I guess as Jose used to be on the committee, they are still partial to him. Massey at #45 and WN at #40 state Jose should be the last #10 or an #11 seed.
Villanova #44, #11 in Wichita. Massey #67, WN-#71 show they are the worst by far, At-Large bid in the Tourney. Good for us? Maybe but the fact that there is a Villanova rep on the committee and the fact Schools like South Dakota State (43/36), Boston College (48/48), Oregon State (37/53) and Northwestern (49/66) are all more deserving. But Ok, fine, they are in but they should be a 12 or 13 seed. Auto bids like Belmont, UMass, FGCU that have a better body of work AND won their conference that should be a #11 seed.
Missing the correct seeding for 13 of 46 teams is still not great. As the Committee Chairwoman is from Duke, that's only a 72% accuracy....
5 Under-seeded:
North Carolina at #17 (5 seed in Greensboro) could make a claim for #3 or #4 seed. Their Massey was #9 and WN was #7. They don't even get to host.
Oregon at #20 and the #5 seed in Wichita, could have also made a claim for the top #4 and hosting. Massey-#15/WN-#12
UCF at #27 (Massey-23/WN-15) and #7 seed in Bridgeport was also done a disservice. A #5 or #6 would have been more appropriate.
Gonzaga #36 (#29/#25) and #9 seed in Spokane deserved a #7 seed.
Princeton #43 (#39/#22) and a #11 seed in Bridgeport, seems to have deserved a #7, #8 or #9 seed.
8 Over-seeded:
Iowa as seeded as the last #2 seed (8th overall). However Massey had them at 12 and WN at 13. Iowa State was #8/#9, North Carolina was #9/#7 as candidates. Iowa State beat Iowa so to me, ISU should have gotten the 2 seed and Iowa #3. That said, flipflopping the seeding is tolerable.
LSU #10 overall, #3 in Spokane (Massey-17/WN-21) is a definite bias. A #5 seed would have been more logical, but given the turnaround Kim produced in Baton Rouge, I would have been ok with a #4 seed.
Oklahoma #14 overall, #4 in Bridgeport. Massey-18 and WN-35 differ a lot on this Sooner team. They should be a #5 or #6 team, instead they get to host. I feel good for Jen B and all those players to make the NCAAT after the few years under Sherri Coale but they didn't earn the hosting.
Kentucky #22, #6 in Bridgeport. Massey-30/WN-#34 shows this rating too favorable. The two SEC talking heads-Fargas and Peck glowed about the 10 game winning streak. But what about the 4 straight losses before that 10 OR the losing of 8 of before that 10 gamer? Yes, the stunner against SC was a great item but this 10 game win streak was built against Alabama, Vandy, Auburn, MSU twice and Missouri. Also with injured LSU (Morris) and Tennessee (Horston) so let's take it with a grain of salt shall we? Nikki also intimated Baylor lost to Texas because Smith was hurt and that Baylor deserved the #1 over Louisville. She wasn't hurt long as she came back into the game and was productive but somehow Kentucky's win is more deserving than Texas despite their wins over hurt team leaders?
Washington State #30, #8 in Bridgeport was #35 Massey and #59 WN! Now you can see why some were surprised they even made the field. Frankly a #11 bid was more logical than #8.
Miami at #32, #8 in Greensboro had a great run in the ACC to go from Bubble to In. But Massey-#41 and WN-#42 clearly show they should be a #11 seed, not #8.
South Florida #33, #9 in Greensboro. I guess as Jose used to be on the committee, they are still partial to him. Massey at #45 and WN at #40 state Jose should be the last #10 or an #11 seed.
Villanova #44, #11 in Wichita. Massey #67, WN-#71 show they are the worst by far, At-Large bid in the Tourney. Good for us? Maybe but the fact that there is a Villanova rep on the committee and the fact Schools like South Dakota State (43/36), Boston College (48/48), Oregon State (37/53) and Northwestern (49/66) are all more deserving. But Ok, fine, they are in but they should be a 12 or 13 seed. Auto bids like Belmont, UMass, FGCU that have a better body of work AND won their conference that should be a #11 seed.
Missing the correct seeding for 13 of 46 teams is still not great. As the Committee Chairwoman is from Duke, that's only a 72% accuracy....
