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Message: [QUOTE="Zerostatic, post: 5273443, member: 9279"] Last season I made a post where I ranked our opponents by Sagarin ratings and speculated what our record would be had we improved our Sagarin rating to just 60. The post seems pretty prophetic about what ended up happening (we increased to 66 and we lost to the teams that had scores above that and beat the teams that had scored below that. I quoted at the end of this post for reference. Anyway, I thought I would do the same for this Season. This is where we rank next to our opponents (adjusted for home/away). 79.18 @ Syracuse 76.73 @ Boston College 71.88 Duke 66.05 - UConn 65.45 @ Buffalo 64.91 @ Rice 63.04 Air Force 58.30 UAB 58.23 @ Florida Atlantic 56.5 @ Delaware 54.89 FIU 53.11 Ball State 41 CCSU It seems like there is a decent gap between us & the 3 ACC schools on our schedule. Those are probable losses. Then there is another group of 3 schools (Buffalo, Air Force and Rice) that I think everyone here is a bit over confident on. They seem to be fairly close to us. I'd say we are likely to go 2-1 against those 3. Then there's another gap and you have the rest of our schedule which I'm much more confident on. With that said, we're bound to get unlucky and lost at least 1 of those games so I say we'll go 5-1 against those teams. Our over/under on wins is probably 7.5 with a records of 7-6 and 8-5 being the most likely outcomes. Personally I want a winning record and a bowl game even if that is 7-6. Without a conference, that is not a bad scenario to consistently be in until we can get the team in a conference (whether that's the mythical P4 invite or a football only G5 invite). [SPOILER="The post I made last year"]I was bored so I used the Sagarin ratings from last year (adjusted to factor home/away) and applied it to this year. Obviously teams will change a lot but this is where UConn Ranks compared to this years scheduled based off of last years results: vs. Merrimack - 33.50 Temple - 46.07 Buffalo - 51.01 @ UMass - 51.09 [B]UConn - 53.14[/B] FAU - 56.91 @ UAB - 59.69 vs. Rice 59.81 vs. Georgia State 59.84 Wake Forest - 62.41 @ Syracuse - 62.44 @ Duke - 81.55 @ Maryland - 81.99 If we improve to just a 60 rated team which is about the 110th best team in collegefootball we'd probably make a bowl game with this schedule. As weak as this schedule may be (it really seems like a typical G5 conference schedule) I think making bowl games will help our prospects in conference realignment.[/SPOILER] [/QUOTE]

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