Our No. 2 seed

[uconn_jack]

Looking through the scenarios for us, there's a couple key facts:

If Purdue is overall #1 (as it likely stands right now)

• If UNC is #1, Tenn goes South to Dallas. We end up with Iowa St as our 2 pretty much 100% of the time since Arizona wants West and Marquette can't be in our region..
• If Tenn is #1, UNC goes East with us as they can't go to Detroit.

If Purdue is NOT overall #1, then it doesn't really matter if it's us or Houston, the same stuff plays out.

• Both UNC and Tenn (whichever doesn't get the #1) as the top #2 would go with Purdue to Detroit due to closer distance. We end up with Iowa St as our 2 for the same logic as above (Arizona goes West and Marquette can't be in East).

So if I were a betting man, I think it's pretty likely we end up with Iowa St except in the scenario where Purdue is the overall #1 and Tenn gets the 4th #1. This is one of the most likely scenarios, though.

This hinges on Marquette hanging on to a 2 seed without Kolek playing in BET. Creighton winning the BET and joining Marquette as a 2 would probably force UNC/Tenn as the 2 in our East since neither could be in our region and Arizona has strong West preference. Creighton instead replacing Marquette makes it a similar outcome to the bullets above.

If Baylor supplants Iowa St as the Big 12's 2 seed, the same would apply (unless they finished ahead of Arizona, in which case we'd probably end up with Arizona. Baylor is the rare team in the top 16 that is closer to LA than Boston).

So basically we want Tenn to flame out and UNC to win their respective conference tournaments.

 

[UConNick]

Last year we played St Mary’s and Gonzaga before the final four. Those two teams were clearly in the top three of the same conference but appeared in the same bracket. I think the rule is they can’t play each other in the first two rounds but I am not certain. Just know we played both of those WCC schools in the tournament b4 we got to final four.

That was because the Gaels were a 5, so that rule didn’t apply. In such cases as that one, the rule is as you stated, generally to avoid teams from the same conference from playing as much as possible, whether that’s until the Sweet Sixteen or Elite Eight.

The rule will apply since both Creighton and Marquette will be top 4 seeds.

 

[FlexOnEm]

I’m taking us to make the Final 4 no matter who is in our region, but Tennessee would pose the toughest matchup. Very tough and physical team. Knecht is one of the best scorers in the country. They’d give us a game.

 

[bendm]

The 354 teams that won't win the 2024 national title -- and the eight that could

Every Division I team according to its chances to make it to the very end (or not) of March Madness. Which bucket does your team fall into?

www.espn.com

the 8 teams espn think can win it all:
Arizona, UConn, Creighton, Duke, Houston, Kentucky, Purdue or Tennessee,

not surprising that espn thinks Duke can win it all but not UNC even tho the latter swept the former.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

I’m taking us to make the Final 4 no matter who is in our region, but Tennessee would pose the toughest matchup. Very tough and physical team. Knecht is one of the best scorers in the country. They’d give us a game.

You kind of have a point with Tennessee, but that point goes out the window with two words:


Rick Barnes.

 

[gsmooth]

Last year we played St Mary’s and Gonzaga before the final four. Those two teams were clearly in the top three of the same conference but appeared in the same bracket. I think the rule is they can’t play each other in the first two rounds but I am not certain. Just know we played both of those WCC schools in the tournament b4 we got to final four.

It's usually that teams from the same conference can't play each other until the Elite Eight.