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Message: [QUOTE="Tenspro2002, post: 5156491, member: 889"] Let's consider this from an expected value point of view. I'm probably: 98% to make the layup --> 50K * 0.98 = 49K EV 70% to make the free throw --> 100K * 0.7 = 70K EV 30% to make the top of the key 3 --> 500K * 0.3 = 150K EV 20% to make the wing 3 --> 750K * 0.2 = 150K EV 10% to make the corner 3 --> 1000K *0.1 = 100K EV So if the value of money is linear to me, I'm probably going with the top of the key 3. However, the value of money isn't necessarily linear, might be closer to logarithmic. I'd consider the free throw. But probably the top of the key 3. It'd be hard to pass up a 5x increase in payoff for a shot from 7 feet farther away. Edit: can I revise my answer? If it's shooting on [I]that[/I] court, the corner "3" looks like it's about 16 feet. I'll go with that one lol [/QUOTE]