Yes, UL and ND will clamor for Cincinnati when they heavily recruit there. Nebraska and Rutgers proves markets are a factor, too. I am pretty sure the ACC would make more money adding us than Cincinnati, with Clemson dominating college football at Alabama's level. Did the SEC add Mizzou or South Carolina thinking of football?
Nebraska football has become a wasteland in the Big Ten. UConn would benefit in recruiting by joining any P5 conference.
I don't outright disagree with any of your points, but I just don't see it happening. I'd love to be wrong, but think it's incredibly unlikely with the state of our football program. Rutgers and Maryland were definitely added to the B1G because of market expansion, but again, both of them had better football programs than we currently do. Same with Mizzou and South Carolina. Our program is historically bad over the past several years.
UConn would definitely benefit in recruiting by joining a P5 conference, but you still need to convince FSU and Clemson that adding UConn would be beneficial and I just don't see that happening. Group that with BC not wanting to compete with us and you have even more issues.
In addition to adding Cincy or Memphis, the ACC could also wait out a possible implosion of the Big 12. Texas and Oklahoma could join the SEC for a mega conference, or join the PAC 12. If that happens the ACC could go after WVU or one of the Texas schools to expand into that market.
Again, I think it would be great, and I'd love to be wrong. But I think our path to a P5 gets narrower and narrower with each passing year that our football program flails around like a fish out of water. We haven't had a winning season in 10 years. When was the last time we beat a Power Conference opponent? Probably close to just as long.
I still cheer for this team and want the best for it. Despite what many on this board say, I still think football independence will benefit us and give us a better chance to move to a P5 some day.