OT: Investing in the Biotech Sector (Simple Question) | The Boneyard

OT: Investing in the Biotech Sector (Simple Question)

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BLUEDOGHOUSE

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Does anyone own stock in this sector? I have a tendency to research companies after being hit hard (50% haircut/loss on pps after news hits ect..). What have been your experiences in this sector if any? Did anyone ever own shares of Dendreon? Short Dendreon? Hold a long position? The Dendreon story is now old news but still an interesting read on how the markets worked with this stock.

https://www.deepcapture.com/2009/09/michael-milken-60000-deaths-and-the-story-of-dendreon/
 
Investments in Biotechnology are always complicated.

But you have come to the right place for wisdom on the topic: the Boneyard.

Please ask me any questions. It just so happens that I spent every undergrad summer interning on Wall Street, hold a Phd in Nano-neural-biotics, and currently work as an executive at a major pharmaceutical company as I pursue a law degree at night.

Somehow, however, Las Vegas always seems to take my pants as well as my shirt.
 
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Well I am following insider sales/buys on a particular stock that meets the description above. Institutional investors have at least an 80% interest in the company that has turned very bullish in trading the last 4 days after the haircut. Zachs has a STRONG BUY rating. FDA issues caused the temporary setback. However they have EU as a fall back approval possibly coming soon. The stock is ridiculously low priced so I am being a bit cautious.

Vegas is a tough nut to crack unless you are trying to crack it at the Rhino after midnight. ;) Good luck you are probably studying for a Criminal Procedure exam while posting on the BY all the while simultaneously dumping stock to unsuspecting SH's before bad news hits your company after the open??? Just kidding! :D
 
Blue, I believe you are talking about a company that begins with an "A" and ends with a "D". If that is the case, then maybe this info will be helpful. I bought in after the haircut happened and have made lots of money. I still own 8500 shares. I believe this stock will def go up more and is a possible buyout target. A known hedge fund manager is taking over the board of directors as we speak. He has a history of selling companies he gets into. The current CEO is about to be out on hiss ass. All signs look as if this is a STRONG buy!!!

With that said, understand bio is extremely volatile. It's not for the faint of heart. These bio stocks are manipulated as well. Short sellers will purposely bring the price down so hedge funds load up. The average joe gets scared and sells...but long term the patient who hold their position usually win. Do your own DD and make your own decision. I see this stock possibly doubling or tripling in the next 2-3 years. Sooner if it is a buyout. Hope this helps.
 
Sandeman said:
With that said, understand bio is extremely volatile. It's not for the faint of heart. These bio stocks are manipulated as well. Short sellers will purposely bring the price down so hedge funds load up. The average joe gets scared and sells...but long term the patient who hold their position usually win. Do your own DD and make your own decision. I see this stock possibly doubling or tripling in the next 2-3 years. Sooner if it is a buyout. Hope this helps.
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Every single stock, market, commodity is 'manipulated'. The degree of success depends on the relative size of the market/issue and the size/concentration of the 'manipulators'. The smaller the market/issue, the easier it is to move the price.
 
Sandeman said:
Blue, I believe you are talking about a company that begins with an "A" and ends with a "D". If that is the case, then maybe this info will be helpful. I bought in after the haircut happened and have made lots of money. I still own 8500 shares. I believe this stock will def go up more and is a possible buyout target. A known hedge fund manager is taking over the board of directors as we speak. He has a history of selling companies he gets into. The current CEO is about to be out on hiss ass. All signs look as if this is a STRONG buy!!!

With that said, understand bio is extremely volatile. It's not for the faint of heart. These bio stocks are manipulated as well. Short sellers will purposely bring the price down so hedge funds load up. The average joe gets scared and sells...but long term the patient who hold their position usually win. Do your own DD and make your own decision. I see this stock possibly doubling or tripling in the next 2-3 years. Sooner if it is a buyout. Hope this helps.
Expand ...

Ariad? I bought in around $2.50 a share and sold it around $8. Definitely a buyout target.
 
Sandeman said:
Blue, I believe you are talking about a company that begins with an "A" and ends with a "D". If that is the case, then maybe this info will be helpful. I bought in after the haircut happened and have made lots of money. I still own 8500 shares. I believe this stock will def go up more and is a possible buyout target. A known hedge fund manager is taking over the board of directors as we speak. He has a history of selling companies he gets into. The current CEO is about to be out on hiss ass. All signs look as if this is a STRONG buy!!!

With that said, understand bio is extremely volatile. It's not for the faint of heart. These bio stocks are manipulated as well. Short sellers will purposely bring the price down so hedge funds load up. The average joe gets scared and sells...but long term the patient who hold their position usually win. Do your own DD and make your own decision. I see this stock possibly doubling or tripling in the next 2-3 years. Sooner if it is a buyout. Hope this helps.
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We may be talking about a different stock. You make great points. Because BioTech is so volatile my idea is to HOLD LONG and play it safe selling COVERED CALLS once I can accumulate enough shares on the dips. Prolly target a very safe strike price to spin off some income without getting called and losing my shares. I think there also is a fear of buying even on the dips due to volatility.

I did not get in at the 52 week low on this 1 but had the chance. So being a bit conservative may cost me in the short run. I am looking to be patient and hope for EU and FDA approval on a Phase 3 trial and then sell.
 
My buddy works for biogen idec. He said they had something like an 11% increase in revenue (not sure timeframe). The stock plummeted last week because analysts were expecting more. They have had a wild year, look at their stock history. They're strong in MS and have a promising alzheimer's drug on the way. The problem with their stock and many others in biotech is that they've already been overvalued based on potential. So you have to make the assessment - are they overvalued in current state? Tough for a layman to say. I hold a biotech stock that launched this year. It's been up and down, dropped 50%, gained it all back and then dropped again. I'm long on them because I think they have some strong patent potential on top of their target diseases. Biotech and pharma stocks can be one blockbuster away from blowing up......but also can fall on their face in short order. I know that doesn't tell you much - if you're feeling shy but want to play, throw some cash at an index fund and put a watch a few stocks of interest in the industry.
 
huskypantz said:
My buddy works for biogen idec. He said they had something like an 11% increase in revenue (not sure timeframe). The stock plummeted last week because analysts were expecting more. They have had a wild year, look at their stock history. They're strong in MS and have a promising alzheimer's drug on the way. The problem with their stock and many others in biotech is that they've already been overvalued based on potential. So you have to make the assessment - are they overvalued in current state? Tough for a layman to say. I hold a biotech stock that launched this year. It's been up and down, dropped 50%, gained it all back and then dropped again. I'm long on them because I think they have some strong patent potential on top of their target diseases. Biotech and pharma stocks can be one blockbuster away from blowing up.but also can fall on their face in short order. I know that doesn't tell you much - if you're feeling shy but want to play, throw some cash at an index fund and put a watch a few stocks of interest in the industry.
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There is a CT BioTech company that is completely under the radar right now with products in their pipeline that will generate great revenue within the next 12-18 months. Wellington Management Group owns at least 12% of the company. The stock is way undervalued IMO. It should become more liquid in the foreseeable future. I could see a 8-10x bagger in the next 18-24 months. The stock is trading under $5 but my interest is personal because their pipeline effects me personally. So I can gauge the value. I don't own shares yet in this 1 .

Good luck with your investment! Thanks for the words of wisdom. Always refreshing.
 
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Be smart with your money. Aggressive when need be, patient if possible.
 
This is not the place for investment advice. Unless you have access to level three forex trading, which you don't, then you're at the mercy of the market makers.

Good luck
 
huskypantz said:
My buddy works for biogen idec. He said they had something like an 11% increase in revenue (not sure timeframe). The stock plummeted last week because analysts were expecting more. They have had a wild year, look at their stock history. They're strong in MS and have a promising alzheimer's drug on the way. The problem with their stock and many others in biotech is that they've already been overvalued based on potential. So you have to make the assessment - are they overvalued in current state? Tough for a layman to say. I hold a biotech stock that launched this year. It's been up and down, dropped 50%, gained it all back and then dropped again. I'm long on them because I think they have some strong patent potential on top of their target diseases. Biotech and pharma stocks can be one blockbuster away from blowing up.but also can fall on their face in short order. I know that doesn't tell you much - if you're feeling shy but want to play, throw some cash at an index fund and put a watch a few stocks of interest in the industry.
Expand ...
I work in biotech as well, for a company that competes with Biogen. They really are the gold standard in the industry right now, everyone wants to work for them.

When they tanked I bought some shares for the inevitable bounceback. Not much of a hot tip for anyone, but Biogen is a great company and the market overreacted this week. It's already back up $20/share from the low.

Maybe put in a good word for me with your buddy as a fellow husky fan, I've been trying to get a job there for awhile :)
 
amory said:
I work in biotech as well, for a company that competes with Biogen. They really are the gold standard in the industry right now, everyone wants to work for them.

When they tanked I bought some shares for the inevitable bounceback. Not much of a hot tip for anyone, but Biogen is a great company and the market overreacted this week. It's already back up $20/share from the low.

Maybe put in a good word for me with your buddy as a fellow husky fan, I've been trying to get a job there for awhile :)
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Just send him an BYPM and let the networking fly to new heights. The BY is a place where dreams come true! ;)

Good luck landing that dream job.
 
Chinese markets crashing amid govt. intervention and witchhunting for panic sellers.
Grexit floating around like a Bhopal gas cloud.
6 years of ZIRP/NIRP with no end in sight.
Japan's economy teetering on the edge.
War hawk/populist/zenophobe/polemic/demagogue leading candidate.
Greatest percentage of working age Americans not in labor force in 60 years.

Don't invest the beer/prostitute money.
 
amory said:
I work in biotech as well, for a company that competes with Biogen. They really are the gold standard in the industry right now, everyone wants to work for them.

When they tanked I bought some shares for the inevitable bounceback. Not much of a hot tip for anyone, but Biogen is a great company and the market overreacted this week. It's already back up $20/share from the low.

Maybe put in a good word for me with your buddy as a fellow husky fan, I've been trying to get a job there for awhile :)
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What field are you in? He works in IT/portfolio-project mgmt. Are you in research? I have a friend at Novartis, best I can do on that side of things. Also, warning in advance that BIIB is a challenging place to work at. Let me just say that it's a very competitive environment externally and internally.
 
BLUEDOGHOUSE said:
Does anyone own stock in this sector? I have a tendency to research companies after being hit hard (50% haircut/loss on pps after news hits ect..). What have been your experiences in this sector if any? Did anyone ever own shares of Dendreon? Short Dendreon? Hold a long position? The Dendreon story is now old news but still an interesting read on how the markets worked with this stock.

https://www.deepcapture.com/2009/09/michael-milken-60000-deaths-and-the-story-of-dendreon/
Expand ...

Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel.
 
BLUEDOGHOUSE said:
There is a CT BioTech company that is completely under the radar right now with products in their pipeline that will generate great revenue within the next 12-18 months. Wellington Management Group owns at least 12% of the company. The stock is way undervalued IMO. It should become more liquid in the foreseeable future. I could see a 8-10x bagger in the next 18-24 months. The stock is trading under $5 but my interest is personal because their pipeline effects me personally. So I can gauge the value. I don't own shares yet in this 1 .

Good luck with your investment! Thanks for the words of wisdom. Always refreshing.
Expand ...

$MNKD? , Out of it right now. I doubled it but there are so many outstanding shorts right now. Wallstreet wants this one to fail. Good product. Good pipeline but the shorts are making it a rough go at the moment.
 
If you want to know what the next big stock is, just wait until the Goldman Sachs Analysts downgrade it for no reason. That usually means something funky is going on to drop shares so they can pick up even more.
 
What do you know about nucleic bases, amino acids, and proteins?
 
VHT also is free to buy and sell for vanguard members. Helps DCA. Boglehead way is the only way.

Waiting on VDE & SLX to bottom out. You need to be in the know with biotech as to not flame out on a P3 trial.
 
Bump


If there was a good day to enter biotech you may want to seriously consider today....
 
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