OT: FBS Bracketology

[Purple Stein]

Last year, I ran a sim of a 24 FBS team tournament in sync with the 24 team FCS tournament. The winner of the 2017 Purple Stein Cup was the Georgia Bulldogs, who defeated Alabama 27-13 in the national championship game.

I intend to sim the same tournament this year, and with the first CFP poll out, it's time for some FBS Bracketology! The first field consists of all conference champions as automatic qualifiers and the highest remaining CFP ranked teams as at-large bids. Non-CFP ranked AQs were slotted by their Massey index rating. As of 10/30, here's the field:

First Round Matchups (Second Round Opponent in Parentheses Earned a First Round Bye)

24. UAB (AQ) @ 9. Kentucky (8. Washington St -- AQ)
23. Georgia Southern (AQ) @ 10. Ohio State (7. Oklahoma -- AQ)
22. Buffalo (AQ) @ 11. Florida (6. Georgia)
21. Fresno St (AQ) @ 12. UCF (AQ) (5. Michigan -- AQ)
20. Texas A&M @ 13. West Virginia (4. Notre Dame)
19. Syracuse @ 14. Penn State (3. LSU)
18. Mississippi St @ 15 Utah (2. Clemson -- AQ)
17. Texas @ 16 Iowa (1. Alabama -- AQ)

Last Four In -- Texas, Mississippi State, Syracuse, Texas A&M
First Four Out -- NC State, BC, Iowa St, Virginia
On the Bubble (Top 30 Massey, not tournament qualified): Auburn, South Carolina, Michigan State, Missouri, Washington, Stanford, Wisconsin.

Teams by Conference -- SEC - 7 (with an additional 3 on the bubble) B1G -4, Big 12 -3, Pac 12 --2 ACC- 2, All other conferences -- 1 each. The AAC has two long-shot bubble teams in Houston and Cincinnati.

I'll update again after the next CFP poll is released. With Georgia/Kentucky, WVU/Texas, Penn State/Michigan, and Alabama/LSU all on the docket this weekend, big changes are likely!

 

[DoctorWho85]

Can't wait. Absolutely loved the sim last year

 

[HuskyHawk]

Going to be interesting if LSU knocks of Bama today. I think they can. That D is lights out.

 

[Purple Stein]

Here's your Week 2 Bracketology!*

First Round Matchups (Second Round Opponent in Parentheses Earned a First Round Bye)

24. Troy (AQ) @ 9. WVU (8. Washington St -- AQ)
23. UAB (AQ) @ 10. Ohio State (7. LSU)
22. Buffalo (AQ) @ 11. Kentucky (6. Oklahoma -- AQ)
21. Fresno St (AQ) @ 12. UCF (AQ) (5. Georgia)
20. Penn St @ 13. Syracuse (4. Michigan -- AQ)
19. Texas @ 14 NC St (3. Notre Dame)
18. Michigan St @ 15 Florida (2. Clemson -- AQ)
17. BC @ 16 Mississippi St (1. Alabama -- AQ)

Last Four In -- BC, Michigan State, Texas, Penn State
First Four Out -- Iowa, Iowa State, Auburn, Washington
Dropped Out -- Utah, Iowa, Texas A&M, Georgia Southern
On the Bubble (Top 30 Massey, not tournament qualified): South Carolina, Texas A&M, Utah, Purdue, Washington, Stanford, Wisconsin, Army.
Teams by Conference -- SEC - 6, B1G -4, ACC - 4 Big 12 -3, all other conferences -- 1 each.
AAC Possible Second Bids: Cincinnati (42), Houston (58). Long odds have gotten much longer since last week.

Key Games This Week -- Several Teams Trying to Stay on the Bubble!

• A legit 1/16 matchup when Mississippi State goes to Alabama.
  
  
• 18 Michigan State tries to play its way off the bubble when they travel to 10 Ohio State.
  
  
• Wisconsin at 20 Penn State will probably burst one team's bubble -- it's essentially a playoff game.
  
  
• 24. Troy travels to last week's 24 Georgia Southern with the AQ of the Sun Belt on the line -- essentially another playoff game.
  
  
• Auburn has been on the wrong side of the bubble the last two weeks -- they have a chance to change that with a win at 5. Georgia.
  
  
• 17. BC hosts 2. Clemson -- a loss probably puts evil BC back where they belong on the wrong side of the bubble.

*This bracketology reflects the rankings released 11/6 and does not include Fresno's loss to Boise last night. When Utah State destroys San Jose State this afternoon, they will likely move into next week's Mountain West bid.

 

[Purple Stein]

Here's your Week 3 Bracketology!

First Round Matchups (Second Round Opponent in Parentheses Earned a First Round Bye)

24. UAB (AQ) @ 9. WVU (8. Washington St -- AQ)
23. Troy (AQ) @ 10. Ohio State (7. LSU)
22. Buffalo (AQ) @ 11. UCF (AQ) (6. Oklahoma -- AQ)
21. Utah St (AQ) @ 12. Syracuse (5. Georgia)
20. BC @ 13. Florida (4. Michigan -- AQ)
19. Utah @ 14 Penn St (3. Notre Dame)
18. Washington @ 15 Texas (2. Clemson -- AQ)
17. Kentucky @ 16 Iowa St (1. Alabama -- AQ)

Last Four In -- Kentucky, Washington, Utah, BC
First Four Out -- Mississippi St (cruel fate for keeping it "close" with Alabama!), Northwestern, Cincinnati (made for TV ranking), Boise State
Dropped Out -- NC State, Mississippi St., Fresno State
On the Bubble (Top 30 Massey, not tournament qualified): Missouri, Texas A&M, Auburn, South Carolina, Michigan State, Fresno State, Iowa
Teams by Conference -- SEC - 5, Big 12 -- 4 B1G -3, ACC - 3 Pac 12 -3, all other conferences -- 1 each.
AAC Possible Bids: Temple (53)

Key Games This Week -- Several Teams Trying to Stay on the Bubble!

• #16 Iowa State travels to #15 Texas
  
  
• Bubble team Texas A&M will look to make their case against #24 UAB
  
  
• Bubble Team Cincinnati will look to force their way into the tournament vs #11 UCF
  
  
• #12 Syracuse will try to position itself for a first round bye against #3 Notre Dame

 

[Purple Stein]

Here's your Week 4 Bracketology!*

First Round Matchups (Second Round Opponent in Parentheses Earned a First Round Bye)

24. UAB (AQ) @ 9. UCF (AQ) (8. Washington St -- AQ)
23. Troy (AQ) @ 10. Ohio State (7. LSU)
22. Buffalo (AQ) @ 11. Florida (6. Oklahoma -- AQ)
21. Utah St (AQ) @ 12. Penn St (5. Georgia)
20. Syracuse @ 13. WVU (4. Michigan -- AQ)
19. Northwestern @ 14 Texas (3. Notre Dame)
18. Mississippi St @ 15 Kentucky (2. Clemson -- AQ)
17. Utah @ 16. Washington (1. Alabama -- AQ)

Last Four In -- Utah, Mississippi St, Northwestern, Syracuse
First Four Out -- Texas A&M (#16 in Massey), Boise State, Pitt, Iowa State
Dropped Out -- Iowa State, Boston "College"
On the Bubble (Top 30 Massey, not tournament qualified): Missouri (10th in Massey!), Auburn, South Carolina, Iowa, Fresno State, Stanford
Teams by Conference -- SEC - 6 , B1G -4, Big 12- 3, Pac 12 -3, ACC -2 all other conferences -- 1 each.
AAC Possible Bids: Cincinnati (41), Temple (48)

Key Games This Week -- Several Teams Trying to Stay on the Bubble!

• #6 Oklahoma defended its first round bye with a 59-56 win over #13 WVU
  
  
• #8 Washington State no doubt lost its first round bye by losing to #16 Washington. Can the Huskies get a bye by winning the Pac 12 championship game?
  
  
• #10 Ohio State hosts #4 Michigan with a first round bye on the line.
  
  
• Auburn will try to play its way off the bubble by shocking #1 Alabama on the road
  
  
• South Carolina will do the same when they travel to #2 Clemson
  
  
• The first of the first 4 out, Texas A&M, has one last chance at qualifying for the postseason as they travel to #7 LSU (who is looking to hang onto their first round bye)
  
  
• Has Milton's injury thrown the AAC autobid into chaos? Will the Knights still get a bid if they lose the AAC title game? Aren't meaningful games that are anchored to tournaments more awesome than meaningless games not anchored to tournaments?

*Rankings from Tuesday, 11/20. Thanksgiving games have already nuked some of these rankings.

 

[Purple Stein]

Here's your Week 5 Bracketology!

First Round Matchups (Second Round Opponent in Parentheses Earned a First Round Bye)

24. MTSU (AQ) @ 9. Florida (8. UCF-- AQ)
23. Buffalo (AQ) @ 10. LSU (7. Michigan)
22. App Sate (AQ) @ 11. Washington (AQ) (6. Oklahoma -- AQ)
21. Fresno St (AQ) @ 12. Penn St (5. Oklahoma)
20. Syracuse @ 13. Washington St (4. Georgia)
19. Texas A&M @ 14 Texas (3. Notre Dame)
18. Mississippi St @ 15 Kentucky (2. Clemson -- AQ)
17. Utah @ 16. WVU (1. Alabama -- AQ)

Last Four In -- Utah, Mississippi St, Texas A&M, Syracuse
First Four Out -- Northwestern (!), Boise State, Iowa State, Missouri
Dropped Out -- Northwestern, Utah State, Troy, UAB
On the Bubble (Top 30 Massey, not tournament qualified): Auburn, South Carolina, Iowa, Stanford, NC State, Pitt
Teams by Conference -- SEC - 7 , B1G -3, Big 12- 3, Pac 12 -3, ACC -2 all other conferences -- 1 each.
AAC Possible Bids: Cincinnati (39), Temple (50)

Key Games This Week -- Meaningful Championships Games!

AQs are on the line all over the place during Championship Weekend:

• #23 Buffalo plays for the MAC autobid against Northern Illinois in Detroit.
  
  
• #11 Washington will look to move into a bye by taking the PAC-12 AQ against #17 Utah. A loss by the Utes may leave them on the outside looking in.
  
  
• #5 Oklahoma battles #14 Texas at AT&T stadium. An OU win locks up a first round bye and may knock Texas out of the tournament.
  
  
• #22 Appalachian State plays ULL for the Sun Belt autobid.
  
  
• In a rematch from last week, UAB travels to #24 MTSU for the C-USA bid. The Blue Raiders trounced UAB 27-3 on 11/24.
  
  
• #8 UCF hosts Memphis for the AAC bid. A UCF win certainly locks up a first round bye, but a Memphis upset could put two AAC teams in the tourney!
  
  
• #1 Alabama plays #4 Georgia in a mostly meaningless SEC championship game. Both teams are likely already assured first round byes.
  
  
• #21 Fresno State plays Boise State on the smurf turf for the Mountain West championship. The winner will advance -- the loser goes home.
  
  
• Bubble team Pittsburgh will look to sneak into the field with an upset of #2 Clemson in the ACC championship.
  
  
• #6 Ohio State will try to keep "first team out" Northwestern out of the tournament. It would take a miracle for Northwestern to get at an at-large bid.

Once the final poll is out the field will go live and the second annual FBS Playoff simulation will begin!