I can't tell anything from that picture.
If you click on it, you should get the opportunity to enlarge it.
I see several areas of coincidence that lead me to believe it may be for real.
1. The picture shows a group including some apparent Marshall Islanders and two Caucasians.
2. Caucasian #1 is a woman sitting on the edge of the dock with her back to the camera. She has the same build as Earhart. She has the same bobbed hair. She's wearing pants (typical of the tomboyish Earhart).
3. Caucasian #2, the tall man at far left of the group, has a distinctive triangular receding hairline. Looks a lot like copilot Noonan. Quite a coincidence for someone who looks like that to be in the same picture with someone who looks like she could be Earhart.
4. The "Earhart" woman is staring to her right at something apparently being towed on a barge. The analysts promoting this new evidence say it looks like a plane, and they apply rules of thumb to say it's the same size as Earhart's. The towing vessel has been specifically identified.
As to the time of the picture, the location is marked on the photo -- a particular harbor. It shouldn't be difficult to determine if and when Earhart and Noonan stopped there on their regular course, prior to disappearing.
As to why the Japanese wouldn't have made propaganda out of it had they considered her a POW or spy, I don't know. As to her death in a crash being the only explanation for her disappearance, I think the conjecture is that she died of natural causes (malaria, dysentery or something) while in captivity. If it happened early on, it might explain why the Japanese hadn't yet figured out what to do.
Final comment, like Blake and others I find this fascinating but have an extra reason.
My mother was an Earhart. My son's middle name is Earhart. I'm named after my grandfather, who my own father referred to as "Mr. E." His brother, my great-uncle, met Amelia and chatted with her about where their families originally came from, way back. Turned out to be the same town.
