Kibitzer
Sky Soldier
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- Aug 24, 2011
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Let me describe how betting lines are established and how the work. I'll use the NFL as my example.
I hope I got it right. Comments welcome.
Early each week the "early line" is announced in, naturally, Las Vegas. Some faceless individuals, operating in total secrecy from an unspecified location, decide which teams are to be favored and by how many points.
This is The Point Spread, subject to change. Bets start to flow, legally and illegally. The spread is about half prediction (of the outcome) and half a SWAG (aiming for a spread that will appeal approximately equally to bettors on both teams).
As the week progresses, a few things happen: injuries, accidents, suspensions, etc. Perhaps more important, a surprising volume of money goes down on one team or the other. The early line gets adjusted to keep the bets closer to balanced.
When you bet on NFL games you wager $11 to win $10. So the casino or local bookie has a built-in profit - vigorish, or "vig" in gambling parlance - of 8% or 9% no matter who wins. (Ideally, the bets are about 50-50.)
The vig doesn't seem like much until you look at the palatial casino taking your bet. And your local bookie needs only a phone, calculator, and note pad - maybe an occasional freelance bill collector - and it's all tax free!
This is The Point Spread, subject to change. Bets start to flow, legally and illegally. The spread is about half prediction (of the outcome) and half a SWAG (aiming for a spread that will appeal approximately equally to bettors on both teams).
As the week progresses, a few things happen: injuries, accidents, suspensions, etc. Perhaps more important, a surprising volume of money goes down on one team or the other. The early line gets adjusted to keep the bets closer to balanced.
When you bet on NFL games you wager $11 to win $10. So the casino or local bookie has a built-in profit - vigorish, or "vig" in gambling parlance - of 8% or 9% no matter who wins. (Ideally, the bets are about 50-50.)
The vig doesn't seem like much until you look at the palatial casino taking your bet. And your local bookie needs only a phone, calculator, and note pad - maybe an occasional freelance bill collector - and it's all tax free!
I hope I got it right. Comments welcome.