One and Dones...Am I Missing Something or Are a Lot of Others?

[Husky1972]

I keep reading on all of the recruiting threads where posters have heartburn with recruiting top tier players that are likely "One and Dones" for next year's (2015) class. Everything I've seen indicates that this year's incoming class (2014) is likely the last to be able to enter the draft after their freshman seasons.

It's likely to be "None and Dones" : Directly to Pro Ball, or at least two years of college starting with next year's class.

Posted this before, but here we go again for those who missed it:

"Armed with majority support from owners and saying "we're ready to go," NBA commissioner Adam Silver made it clear that pushing back the league's age minimum to 20 is at the top of his priority list.

The league's owners hosted NCAA president Mark Emmert to discuss the issue as part of their annual two-day spring meeting this week. Any changes wouldn't be in place by next season because the league is waiting for the players' association to name an executive director before formally starting negotiations. But it's clear there's a growing momentum to force this occasionally divisive issue through soon, possibly in time for the 2016 draft..... When the league and the players' union signed the collective bargaining agreement in 2011, it was agreed that the current one-and-done college rule could be revised at any time."

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/10803355/adam-silver-says-pushing-back-nba-age-limit-top-priority

I have read elsewhere that the union is on board but would want trade-offs, such as kids could go into the draft out of high school (eg. Lebron James), though if not taken in the 1st round could still go to college but then wouldn't be NBA eligible again for two years, the same two year requirement for everyone else that chooses to go to college. The fear is that if they just had the 20 year old rule, the really good ones wouldn't go to college, but go play professionally for the two years (overseas, D-League).

 

[huskiesnyc]

This is great news for Kentucky, but I don't think it's great for us considering 99% of our players stay at least 2 years anyway.

 

[intlzncster]

This is great news for Kentucky, but I don't think it's great for us considering 99% of our players stay at least 2 years anyway.

It'll spread out top recruits a bit, despite what people on here claim. There's a diff between potentially sitting one year vs 2 to three years.

 

[David 76]

Yeah, Kentucky would only get half as many top 10 players because they wouldn't reload every position every year. But they would have some great sophomores.
Regardless, it is better for the athletes and better for college ball.

 

[amory]

This is like Kentucky's dream. Their all-freshman team just made the national championship, can you imagine if that same team was back next year?

Man.

 

[intlzncster]

This is like Kentucky's dream. Their all-freshman team just made the national championship, can you imagine if that same team was back next year?
Man.

We would still beat them. And dook.

 

[Strummer]

I think it's close to a push for Kensucky. Realistically, they will get 1/2 the number of studs, and keep them twice as long. But so will everybody else. Jabari Parker and the Kansas kid playing another year would make those teams that much better.

The main beneficiaries of this new rule will be:

1. Top programs other than Kensucky. The One and Dones that are currently going to Kentucky will have to go somewhere else. They will land at the Kansases and Connecticuts and Dukes of the world. Some talent then will be pushed down from those program into the next tier. The rich won't get richer, in the aggregate, but the money won't be so concentrated in the richest.

2. Older players in the NBA.

3. NCAA - more $ from TV from better product.

4. NCAA schools - via 3.

5. NBA. Not sure about this one, but they have 2 years of product advertisement prior to release.

Who will be hurt:

1. Players who would have qualified for the NBA out of HS or after 1 year of college get screwed out of millions.

 

[Strummer]

This is like Kentucky's dream. Their all-freshman team just made the national championship, can you imagine if that same team was back next year?

They were more lucky than good. Coming in an 8 seed and winning 3 games in a row with a last second shot is an aberration. And some of those guys wouldn't have come to Kentucky if there was a 2 year rule, so really not a reasonable hypothetical.

 

[amory]

They were more lucky than good. Coming in an 8 seed and winning 3 games in a row with a last second shot is an aberration. And some of those guys wouldn't have come to Kentucky if there was a 2 year rule, so really not a reasonable hypothetical.

Why wouldn't they? If playing time was available at their position and they liked Cal, why would the fact that they'd be there for 2 years instead of 1 matter? This is assuming they still don't have the option to go to the League straight out of high school.

Also I don't think it's really fair to call them lucky, they gelled at the right time same as we did. They knocked off Louisville, Wich State, Michigan, and Wisconsin which isn't quite as difficult as our road but it's up there. Doesn't matter if you win by 1 or 10.

 

[intlzncster]

I think it's close to a push for Kensucky. Realistically, they will get 1/2 the number of studs, and keep them twice as long. But so will everybody else. Jabari Parker and the Kansas kid playing another year would make those teams that much better.

The main beneficiaries of this new rule will be:

1. Top programs other than Kensucky. The One and Dones that are currently going to Kentucky will have to go somewhere else. They will land at the Kansases and Connecticuts and Dukes of the world. Some talent then will be pushed down from those program into the next tier. The rich won't get richer, in the aggregate, but the money won't be so concentrated in the richest.

2. Older players in the NBA.

3. NCAA - more $ from TV from better product.

4. NCAA schools - via 3.

5. NBA. Not sure about this one, but they have 2 years of product advertisement prior to release.

NBA will definitely benefit. They can more time to scout kids and see if they are developing, so they (hopefully) don't make as many mistakes in the draft. It leads to less 'projects'. They also get an older, more physically and mentally mature kid. Kid will be more ready to play, and handle the rigors of the NBA on and off the court. All good from a team's perspective.

 

[intlzncster]

Why wouldn't they? If playing time was available at their position and they liked Cal, why would the fact that they'd be there for 2 years instead of 1 matter? This is assuming they still don't have the option to go to the League straight out of high school.

That's just it, less playing time would be available. A lot of these kids come because they know the class before them is exiting to the NBA. IF that's not an option, and they don't feel they are guaranteed to feature for 25+ minutes per game, they'll likely look elsewhere for that same opportunity.

Also I don't think it's really fair to call them lucky, they gelled at the right time same as we did. They knocked off Louisville, Wich State, Michigan, and Wisconsin which isn't quite as difficult as our road but it's up there. Doesn't matter if you win by 1 or 10.

They were lucky because they required 3 buzzer beaters to get there. Two of which, the other team decided to inexplicably refrain from playing defense.

 

[Wise2]

That's just it, less playing time is available. A lot of these kids come because they know the class before them is exiting to the NBA. IF that's not an option, and they don't feel they are guaranteed to feature for 25+ minutes per game, they'll likely look elsewhere for that same opportunity.



They were lucky because they required 3 buzzer beaters to get there. Two of which, the other team decided to inexplicably refrain from playing defense.

So, it would just be a two year cycle then. They would recruit big every other year as soon as the 5 McDonald AA stay two years, they reload with 5 or 6 more. win a title or make the FF in their second year and then rise and repeat.

 

[CallMeBruce]

I have read elsewhere that the union is on board but would want trade-offs, such as kids could go into the draft out of high school (eg. Lebron James), though if not taken in the 1st round could still go to college but then wouldn't be NBA eligible again for two years, the same two year requirement for everyone else that chooses to go to college. The fear is that if they just had the 20 year old rule, the really good ones wouldn't go to college, but go play professionally for the two years (overseas, D-League).

Where did you read this? Why would the union care about any of that? The union cares about the interests of players in the NBA, not amateur players. Furthermore, why would the player's association care if those players went to Europe for two years?

 

[intlzncster]

So, it would just be a two year cycle then. They would recruit big every other year as soon as the 5 McDonald AA stay two years, they reload with 5 or 6 more. win a title or make the FF in their second year and then rise and repeat.

Yeah, but those other guys would be going somewhere else and ALSO staying two years. More comp.

 

[Kitaman]

They were lucky because they required 3 buzzer beaters to get there. Two of which, the other team decided to inexplicably refrain from playing defense.

Luck is always part of the equation, even for us. We were the benefactors of some timely opponent injuries of key players in our Tournament run. uk was a solid championship contender at the end of the season. It was destiny for both teams to play that Championship gane, both putting away super talented top tier teams.

Plus I don't ever want to believe we won a 'Ship' by beating a team that was simply lucky to be playing. When you look at that uk team those were some big ass kids with major talent and skills. That's the team I will always remember us spanking. No shame in recognizing game.

 

[Husky1972]

Where did you read this? Why would the union care about any of that? The union cares about the interests of players in the NBA, not amateur players. Furthermore, why would the player's association care if those players went to Europe for two years?

1)
"We want to go back to the way it was," a source from the National Basketball Players Association said. "The players have always been philosophically opposed to it. The vast majority of players feel a player should have the right to make a living. If he has the talent and wants to make money to help his family, he should have that right. It's just a matter of principle."

NBPA executive director Billy Hunter sent an audio podcast detailing the union's proposal to every player last week. The proposal, which includes the end of the age restriction, has been obtained by ESPN.com and confirmed by a union source.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=5899152

2)
"The idea for the potential change is that, while the NBA wants to keep out players who are viewed as too young, it does not want to deny them the chance to make a living. That's been the source of opposition to a change in the age limit from agents and players alike.

As it stands, players do have the opportunity to skip college and play overseas for a year before entering the draft, as Detroit Pistons point guard Brandon Jennings did in 2008, but European teams don't generally want to take on teenage American prospects, and almost no one followed Jennings' lead.

The alternative would be for a player to skip college and play in the D-League. But domestic minor-league salaries are notably paltry — players get benefits, but generally earn between $18,000 and $24,000 per season.

As D-League teams become increasingly successful in various markets, and with the potential for a network television contract — games are currently shown live on YouTube — the opportunity to raise salaries and incorporate the D-League into a future solution involving the age limit seems ripe.

Back in March, Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban told reporters that players would be better off in the D-League than in the NCAA, and suggested ways that the league could provide a safety net for players who fail to pan out as prospects, including guaranteeing college tuition.

According to the proposals being discussed around league front offices, that appears to be the approach the league will take in developing a new system for players seeking to enter the league — once the NBPA finds an executive director, that is."

http://www.sportingnews.com/nba/sto...imit-one-and-done-ncaa-adam-silver-mark-cuban

 

[huskyharry]

That's just it, less playing time would be available. A lot of these kids come because they know the class before them is exiting to the NBA. IF that's not an option, and they don't feel they are guaranteed to feature for 25+ minutes per game, they'll likely look elsewhere for that same opportunity.



They were lucky because they required 3 buzzer beaters to get there. Two of which, the other team decided to inexplicably refrain from playing defense.

Yes and the shooter was a 35% 3 pt shooter, so the probability of a shooter with that accuracy to make 3 such shots in a row is only 4 in 100 (0.35 cubed)...hence, statistically a very lucky result.

You could certainly say that UConn was lucky to beat St. Joe's, given that our 56% free throw shooter made the pressure FT to tie the game...but 56% is >>>> 4%

 

[elduderino]

I think Kentucky is actually on the short list of losers if the NBA adopts the rule w/ a provision for high school direct to draft players. The kids that will be able to make the quick jump are pretty much going to be top 10 recruits, which are supposedly UK's bread and butter. I dont see another team with the recruiting downside of UK, leaving them having to actually coach and teach 18yr old kids/players. Not exactly Cal's strong suit. Good thing he just got himself that ridiculous contract.

 

[uconnfan68]

This is like Kentucky's dream. Their all-freshman team just made the national championship, can you imagine if that same team was back next year?

Man.

Maybe the coaches and fans dream, but now the players need CLASSES! Unless they have a visiting UNC prof they'll need to ramp up their bait and switch courses.