On NIL

[JohnFSilver]

On NIL,

Eventually, money is going to dry up. All these SEC collectives are throwing around money. What happens when the player doesn’t produce?

I think the money for most recruits is soon gonna come after production. You can’t have that Florida situation happen. Or, how about Ewers from Ohio state to Texas. At least burning the cash in a pile on your yard generates heat. That was a waste.

Eventually, if we are talking six figure NIL deals; the collectice paying the money is going to demand that the player play well and be a part of the team.

This isn’t the bag man giving $5k to a recruit. This is $100k for an unproven product that may never actually play.

That is a waste of money. Right now we are in the throw money at stage of NIL. But they cash isn’t infinite. 1 big miss will sour donors and they will ask for more guarantees that the player will

1. Play
2. Be good

 

[Buffett10]

On NIL,

Eventually, money is going to dry up. All these SEC collectives are throwing around money. What happens when the player doesn’t produce?

I think the money for most recruits is soon gonna come after production. You can’t have that Florida situation happen. Or, how about Ewers from Ohio state to Texas. At least burning the cash in a pile on your yard generates heat. That was a waste.

Eventually, if we are talking six figure NIL deals; the collectice paying the money is going to demand that the player play well and be a part of the team.

This isn’t the bag man giving $5k to a recruit. This is $100k for an unproven product that may never actually play.

That is a waste of money. Right now we are in the throw money at stage of NIL. But they cash isn’t infinite. 1 big miss will sour donors and they will ask for more guarantees that the player will

1. Play
2. Be good

Absolutely it’ll dry up. The whole Florida situation was stupid agreeing to pay a HS kid the same amount as a mid 1st rd draft pick.

 

[uconnric]

Right now it's pretty much an unregulated, unsustainable mess. Going forward only the proven players will get the big money. Not sure what Arizona State offered him, his recruitment shows how messed up NIL is.

 

[ktuck911]

Unsustainable like quite a few things in our society as a whole unfortunately... Hopefully sainer heads (the much less greedy ones) get a hold of all of this stuff...

 

[Jimdish255]

We have a lot of deep pockets big ego guys in this country. The question is whether the novelty of controlling players and careers wears off for most of them any time soon. The history of our nation suggests this train keeps rolling until someone or something derails it.

 

[DoctorWho85]

It'll wear off when places like Texas continue to see no return on their investments and schools with smaller NIL's (TCU) continue to produce better products on the field

 

[uconndogs]

On NIL,

Eventually, money is going to dry up. All these SEC collectives are throwing around money. What happens when the player doesn’t produce?

I think the money for most recruits is soon gonna come after production. You can’t have that Florida situation happen. Or, how about Ewers from Ohio state to Texas. At least burning the cash in a pile on your yard generates heat. That was a waste.

Eventually, if we are talking six figure NIL deals; the collectice paying the money is going to demand that the player play well and be a part of the team.

This isn’t the bag man giving $5k to a recruit. This is $100k for an unproven product that may never actually play.

That is a waste of money. Right now we are in the throw money at stage of NIL. But they cash isn’t infinite. 1 big miss will sour donors and they will ask for more guarantees that the player will

1. Play
2. Be good

I agree with this to some extent, but I think in certain segments of college athletics NIL is going to grow into very big money. The BiG just gobbled up SoCal and the SEC Texas. Neither of those conferences are done and they are going to grab the remaining large and attractive markets. There will be enormous media deals cut and lots of money to attract and retain talent. There is little doubt in my mind that we are going to end up with ~40 programs that are fielding what for all intent and purposes are professional franchises. I think whether kids can continue to get paid if their performance falls off will be largely dependent on what they can negotiate in their contracts. I don't think academics and scholarships will have much at all to do with anything at that level.

I do think that below those ~40 elite programs NIL is probably only supportable to a limited level. The money just won't be as available as it is with say the BiG and SEC. I actually see where lower echelon programs will be a feeding source for elite programs that have better NIL programs. Free agency will be very real.

 

[Stinger92860]

Why would NIL dry up? Did booster payments dry up? Now, it’s easier than ever to buy players.

 

[JohnFSilver]

Why would NIL dry up? Did booster payments dry up? Now, it’s easier than ever to buy players.

At the prices we talking about, it’s unsustainable. They are gonna pay $300k to a Backup qb.

 

[Patman]

I see over the top money drying up but this game has been playing out in back channels for years. Of course there's going to be more money when it is out in the open. I think we don't know where the equilibrium will settle. However, it may still settle at silly money. No reason it shouldn't as such.

Now, the money may get more savvy about who to back. It really depends how much of it is donations to attract talent versus actually looking for a business return on value. I don't see big money going away at big schools. Its going to keep and attract talent. Smaller schools you will probably see it because the wallets can't keep up and more NIL money would be derived from business interests seeking a return.

I think the hopes that there will be a serious drawdowns in payments are more hopeful than they will be practical. Now maybe the big donors might have buyers remorse if they back the wrong player but they'll still want to spend the money. Maybe they'll put it into lower money general players instead of one big player who goes bust. However, for the programs where the boosters are interested in success at the expense of their wallet this game will not end.