- Joined
- Jan 6, 2015
- Messages
- 7,654
- Reaction Score
- 63,479
Here we go, time to preview the 8-seed UConn vs 9-seed Oklahoma matchup!
First off, I'm a big Porter Moser fan and while he is known as one of the better defensive minds in the game, this year's Sooners team is one of Moser's more lopsided teams where his offense (21st in efficiency) is vastly higher rated than the team's defense (70th in efficiency). This is the first Moser-coached team since the 2016-17 Loyola-Chicago Ramblers where the team's offense had a higher rating than the defense and no team in his 20+ year tenure had a team where the defense was rated nearly 50 spots lower than the offense.
With that being said, this year's Sooners team is unlike any other in his tenure, and there are analytical advantages where UConn is clearly favored.
Firstly, Oklahoma is one of the smaller high-majors in the nation, which is a major reason why they are one of the worst rebounding teams in the nation (277th in BOTH O and D rebounding rate) so UConn's gumption under the boards is clearly in their favor.
Secondly, Oklahoma's interior defense stinks: opponents make 55% of their shot attempts from inside the arc, which is 322nd in the nation. That combined with their poor defensive rebounding and weak FTA/FGA rate, there are opportunities to not just feed Reed in the post, but also battle for second-chance shots and create buckets off-the-dribble.
The biggest advantage for Oklahoma is their perimeter offense (37.0 3P%, 35th in nation; 42% 3PA/FGA, 109th in nation) versus UConn's perimeter defense. The Huskies are good at preventing 3PAs (34.2% 3PA/FGA, 36th in the nation), but teams make shots when they take them (35.1 opp 3P% is 257th in the nation).
In terms of individual matchups, Oklahoma's attack is led from freshman point guard Jeremiah Fears (17th highest usage rate in the nation) and senior forward Jalen Moore.
A late '25 reclass, Fears has had an up-and-down season, which parallels to Oklahoma's weak non-conference schedule (319th in the nation) where he averaged 18.1 points and 4.5 assists per game while shooting 50 percent from the field, 31 percent from 3 and 86 percent over the first thirteen games of the season. Over the first 12 SEC games, Oklahoma went 3-9 and Fears averaged just 12 points and three assists pergame while shooting just 36 percent from the field and 20 percent from 3.
Over the final eight games, Fears has stepped up his game, as the still 18-year-old has averaged 22.6 points, 4.9 rebounds, 5.1 assists per game while shooting 51% from two, 85% from free throws and 30% from threes. His perimeter game is still a work in progress and he gives up more turnovers than what you'd like to see from your ball dominant guard (2.8 per game over that span), but he is arguably the best bucket-attacker in the nation (8.9 FTAs/game over last 8 games), and also one of the more creative playmakers and has a plus mid-range game. A likely lottery pick, the 6'4 Fears is a big PG and will be matched up with Diarra all game.
While Fears is the clear star in the backcourt, Moser mixes and matches his other guards spots with capable perimeter scorers -- all four of the players I'll mention shot 35+ 3P% in conference play.
A star last season at High Point, fifth-year senior Duke Miles has taken a back seat in terms of usage rate, but is an all-around solid offensive guard who can score in a variety of ways while still being incredibly efficient (55th in nation w/ a 61.8 eFG%), breakdown the defender off the dribble (8th highest FTrate in SEC) and generate turnovers off steals (20th highest steal rate in the SEC). While Miles hasn't been scoring a lot lately, he can create offense in short bursts and is easily the team's third most dangerous offensive player.
Fairfield transfer Brycen Goodine has fit in nicely at Oklahoma as a high-efficiency, elite floor spacer (47.2 3P% in conference play). His spacing pairs excellently with playmakers Fears/Miles and he is the team's de facto 3 guard. He is the team's worst defensive player. When Goodine is out, freshman Dayton Forsythe subs in playing the same role as he's made HALF of his three-point attempts during SEC play.
Off the bench, Dayton transfer Kobe Elvis is the savvy, pass-first point guard who both backs up Fears and shares the court with Fears, allowing the dynamic freshman to take on more of an aggressive scoring role. When Elvis/Goodine share the floor, Oklahoma shoots well, but lacks defense and interior playmakers.
In the frontcourt, Jalon Moore has developed into Oklahoma's most versatile scorer. A consistent catch-and-score threat opens up space for the rest of the offense but his greatest asset on offense is his ability to catch-and-drive thanks to his combination of strength, will and strong positional handle. A capable slasher, Moore's efficiency decreases when he's forced to score on post-ops, as his under the basket footwork, especially his last step, can get sloppy. He's also not the best above the rim athlete. Also, when he's on a mission to score, he has tunnel vision, noted by his shocking 19:54 A:TO from this season. His agility/strength combo also plays up on defense, as he is a true switchable defender, but he is not a rim protector.
Backing up Moore is Glenn Taylor, a St. John's transfer who is arguably Oklahoma's best frontcourt slasher and he is also a very strong defender.
Oklahoma's three-man rotation at center is easily the team's weak point, and its depth might take a hit with starting fifth-year Sam Godwin missing the last three games with a knee injury. If Godwin can play, he is one the best rebounders in the nation, and considering that Oklahoma struggles on the boards with Godwin, second-chance points ratios should aggressively lean towards UConn's favor. That being said, Godwin is one of the more much-maligned Sooners as his questionable defense and limited offensive ability makes him arguably the worst starting center in the SEC.
With Godwin out, fifth-year senior and Alabama transfer Mohamed Wague took over the starting role. With a similar build to Samson Johnson, Wague is less of a low-post defender, but arguably the team's most switchable defender and like Godwin, Wague's offensive toolbox is limited, however, he is the superior athlete and can run the floor well.
Listed at 6'11 240, while redshirt sophomore Luke Northweather is Oklahoma's biggest player, his offensive profile is purely floor spacer as 80% of his shot attempts are from three (34%) providing the Sooners true 5-out rotations that open up the floor for Moore/Fears, but expose their worst defensive/rebounding looks. Long story short, Wague is a good defender, but when he's on the bench, the Sooners have a gaping defensive hole in the low-post, leading to excellent opportunities for Reed/Johnson to feast. There's also mix-and-match opportunities -- when Wague is in, Reed's strength will overpower. When Godwin/Northweather is in, Johnson's length and quickness will be an advantage.
Like all 8- or 9-seeds teams have their flaws -- UConn's perimeter defense vs Oklahoma's rebounding and poor interior defense -- but it appears that UConn's makeup is better equipped to capitalize the matchup game.
