Of the 3 other likely #1 seeds, which is the best matchup for UCONN?

[bballnut90]

If the season ended today, Texas, UCLA and South Carolina would be the other 3 #1 seeds. Of those teams, who is the best matchup for UCONN, meaning UCONN is most likely to win the game?

My own thoughts are:

1. UCLA - They're talented on paper, have a great record and a fantastic center in Lauren Betts but I think they'd lost by 15+ facing UCONN. They're the least athletic of the 3 teams and have the weakest coaching. They have shooters and if they can get red hot from 3 they'll be dangerous but I don't think their defense can slow down UCONN. I think they're the easiest matchup for UCONN despite having the most experience.

2. South Carolina - They're probably the most athletic team in the country and have a top tier coach in Dawn Staley. On paper they match up pretty well with UCONN, but I think they lack a reliable go to presence in big games, or at the very least they're still figuring that part out. That said, been a dominant program for a while now and seem like a virtual lock to make it to Phoenix. Dawn isn't someone you want to bet against either and recently has had a lot of success going up against UCONN. They're the 2nd easiest matchup for UCONN.

3. Texas - This might be a hot take but I think Texas would be the most dangerous team for UCONN to get matched up with at the Final Four. They're not the tallest or most athletic team but they always control pace of play and just aren't going to be blown out and can keep it tight until the final minutes. If it's a close game at the end they have the toughness and experience to pull it out. They take care of the ball, play stifling defense, and have a defined go to player in Madison Booker. Last year Booker often struggled shooting in big games, but this year she's shooting very well in big games. They also have Rori Harmon who is quietly one of the best PGs in the nation. She always controls pace of play and consistently comes through in the clutch. Texas has really good underclassmen too in Lee/Carlton/Crump and a couple of physical bigs inside. Vic's one of the best coaches in the nation and his teams historically perform well as an underdog. This is the team that poses the biggest threat to UCONN IMO.

 

[GoingPostal]

In reading your analysis of TX it could just as easily be a description of UConn. For that reason alone I'd agree they'd be the toughest matchup but add Vic Schaefer to the mix and I'm hoping to avoid this game.

 

[ERWUC65]

I picked South Carolina for a couple of reasons. First, while having a lot of talented players, they seem to lack leadership on the floor and thus easily succumb to pressure in a close game. Second, I think the beating we gave them twice last year, especially the one at their place still echoes in their psyche and would be a factor should we play them again in the tournament.

 

[Bone Dog]

I picked UCLA, but did so understanding ‘best matchup’ as most challenging. This team strikes me as incrementally better than last season’s, primarily because of the acquisition of Kneepkens and Leger-Walker and the emergence of Jaquez as a primetime scorer.

Yes, they are slow as a team, but so is Texas. Both are teams that Jana would match up well against. This is also true to a lesser extent of SC. Part of my reasoning turns on how we understand the word ‘athletic.’ I tend to think of it as referring not merely to being strong and fast. But even in the narrow sense of strength and speed, none of these teams has more of these qualities than UConn. But the primary speed that matters in basketball — as Geno has demonstrated time and again, including most notably last season — is quick decision making as a team. This is why UConn is the most athletic team in D1 WCBB.

But even in terms of merely physical athleticism, we are unsurpassed. Who’s quicker across the board than KK Ash Kayleigh Azzi and Blanca? Who’s stronger across the board than Sarah Blanca Azzi Ash KK Kayleigh, and from the bench Jana and Ayanna? SC is the only team that combines speed and strength the way UConn does among the top 4. But Tennessee is also similarly strong and quick, and we saw how that turned out.

Some components of SC’s roster are capable of quick decision making. I’m thinking mainly of Raven Joyce and, to a lesser extent, Taniya. But Dawn’s reliance on the freshmen Agot and Ayla, as well as the transfer Madina, cuts into this. They may develop quicker decision making as a team by tournament time. But they’re not entirely there yet. Something similar can be said of Texas. Madison and Rori are major talents. But the rest of the team is not yet playing at their level of decision making. Lee and Carlton are significant talents and may get there, but I think that won’t happen before next season. Also, Vic’s coaching forté is not teaching seamless offensive integration. They will win, if they do, with a formidable defense, not a great multi pronged offense.

This is why UCLA seems like the greatest challenge for us. They are a big slow team, but they have several talented scorers in Betts Rice Dugalic Jaquez and Kneepkens. That’s a lot of talent and almost makes up for slow decision making. They are the gatekeeper to NC #13. Whether it’s in the NC game or the final four is only a matter of seeding. SC is probably the better team theoretically, but in practical terms, UCLA is very likely the mountain that must be climbed.

 

[visitingcock]

Biggest challenge? The refs. You never know how they will call a call a game in the F4.

SCar is thin and may not make the F4. Latson and Makeer are out tonight. It’s not the first time both have been out at the same time. This is the weakest team we have had in this decade. We aren’t bad, but we aren’t excellent this year.

 

[Bone Dog]

Biggest challenge? The refs. You never know how they will call a call a game in the F4.

SCar is thin and may not make the F4. Latson and Makeer are out tonight. It’s not the first time both have been out at the same time. This is the weakest team we have had in this decade. We aren’t bad, but we aren’t excellent this year.

I agree and disagree. Injuries have hurt your team. But given the state of parity in D1 this season, SC is still among the very best. With Chloe and Ashlyn healthy, I think it would be a very different story. And next season I hope they’re both back.

 

[Next 12]

All three are formidable , BUT , Uconn is Undeniable on the court. ALL season I have been saying Uconn will be undefeated, so would I change? No team has the fire power. the defense and speed Uconn possesses. We will prevail and N.O.13 will be ours. You can take that to the bank, GO HUSKIES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Charliebball]

UCLA is a much-improved team this season with less reliance on Betts in order to score. South Carolina is Tennessee on steroids and their team scoring. which was always their weak point has improved. Texas controls the pace better than the other two teams but athletically and offensively, they are the weakest of the three. I never underestimate Coach Vic's teams, which always play UConn tough, but I'd still rather play Texas.......

 

[oldude]

None of the above?

• Texas has the best defensive team, but their offense gets “stuck” too easily and won’t be able to score with UConn.
• As others have mentioned, UCLA is big, but lacks athleticism. UConn’s athletic, relentless team will run circles around the Bruins. Add in that Cori Close is not a big game coach and never will be.
• Every championship that SC has won was powered by an AA center. Okot is decent, but easily neutralized by Serah/Janah or going small, forcing her to chase Sarah around the court.

I see UConn as a double-digit favorite over any of the 3. The one team that might give UConn a run for their money is LSU. The Tigers are fairly deep and athletic, with 3 legitimate scorers: Williams, Johnson & Fulwiley.

 

[Woof]

Lots of factors here and lots of time left before the tournament. Our worst matchup might actually be LSU.

Factors:
1. The refs. It isn't so much what the call asit is what they don't call. It can impact the game in a big way.
2. Overall strength. This is very subjective and also very difficult as all these teams are close.
3. Matchups. While I am a defense junkie, I have started to accept that, maybe, defense doesn't win championships. Why? Because the refs (see #1) can allow your team to be hacked to death. You need a strong offense to overcome that whereas a mediocre defense can look otherworldly in a hack-a-thon. This is why LSU is dangerous. If they limit our offense with a hacking defense but can still score because of their offensive strength, they can beat us.

1. LSU for the reason given above.
2. UCLA for reason #2
3. SC for reason 1 plus I think they are stronger than TX, if healthy
4. TX is the weakest team and is not improving as fast as the others.

If the committee follows their previous pattern, they will make LSU the 2 seed in our bracket. I think we will be opposite either the SC or TX bracket. It SHOULD be TX but we will see.

 

[oldude]

Lots of factors here and lots of time left before the tournament. Our worst matchup might actually be LSU.

Factors:
1. The refs. It isn't so much what the call asit is what they don't call. It can impact the game in a big way.
2. Overall strength. This is very subjective and also very difficult as all these teams are close.
3. Matchups. While I am a defense junkie, I have started to accept that, maybe, defense doesn't win championships. Why? Because the refs (see #1) can allow your team to be hacked to death. You need a strong offense to overcome that whereas a mediocre defense can look otherworldly in a hack-a-thon. This is why LSU is dangerous. If they limit our offense with a hacking defense but can still score because of their offensive strength, they can beat us.

1. LSU for the reason given above.
2. UCLA for reason #2
3. SC for reason 1 plus I think they are stronger than TX, if healthy
4. TX is the weakest team and is not improving as fast as the others.

If the committee follows their previous pattern, they will make LSU the 2 seed in our bracket. I think we will be opposite either the SC or TX bracket. It SHOULD be TX but we will see.

S-curve seedings would eliminate the #2-#7 seeds from UConn’s bracket, should UConn be the overall #1 seed. Presumably, that would put LSU and probably Louisville in another bracket. So the Huskies would possibly be facing a #8 overall seed for a trip to the FF: Michigan? Oklahoma? TBD?

 

[Woof]

S-curve seedings would eliminate the #2-#7 seeds from UConn’s bracket, should UConn be the overall #1 seed. Presumably, that would put LSU and probably Louisville in another bracket. So the Huskies would possibly be facing a #8 overall seed for a trip to the FF: Michigan? Oklahoma? TBD?

The S curve SHOULD do that but the committee will put teams where they want to. If they want us to face LSU, they will use their "dozen factors" to drop us from the overall #1 and/or will drop LSU from overall #5. #2 UConn vs. #7 LSU

 

[Scot-e]

Biggest challenge? The refs. You never know how they will call a call a game in the F4.

SCar is thin and may not make the F4. Latson and Makeer are out tonight. It’s not the first time both have been out at the same time. This is the weakest team we have had in this decade. We aren’t bad, but we aren’t excellent this year.

I’ve watched many USC games this year-(my wife is a Gamecock). After UCONN they are as good as anyone in the country and definitely will be a FF contender. Your shooting has improved over last year and your bigs can hang with anyone not named Strong.

 

[HopJim]

Two alternatives:
-While I haven't watched enough of the 3 teams to have significant evidence, suggest that whatever team can break UConn's press will have the best chance of winning. Based on their athleticism and coach, who has alot of UConn experience, may be South Carolina.
-No matter who Huskies play they will go on a run. Texas, with their ability to control the game and players like Booker, who performs well this year under pressure, seems to have the ability to keep a UConn game close.

 

[oldhusky]

I will say UCLA is the easiest matchup, South Carolina next, and Texas third, although I think it is really 4 major challengers to Uconn with LSU. My rationale for Texas being the toughest is mostly based on the fact we blew out both UCLA and South Carolina in the Final Four.

Yes all teams have had changes since but it appears both of those are relatively good matchups for us. Texas is more of an unknown.e have their number now.

I think UCLA is considerably better than last year with the addition of Kneepkens a badly needed outside shooter, but Uconn is one of the few teams that can make Betts a defensive liability when they go small ball with Sarah as a 5.

South Carolina has quality and athletic ability thru their entire rotation, but may not have enough superstar power at the top compared to their other championship teams, and it seems at least recently we have their number.

Texas is scary for many reasons. One is it might be hard to go small ball against them, because they have a talented 5 on the floor all the time with Cunningham and Oldacre. Serah and Jana may need to combine for near 40 minutes. They also have a player in Booker who can create her own shot against most players, but I would be curious how much Blanca or Sarah could bother her. Harmon of course is a problem, but at least we have a top defensive guard in KK to match up against her.

LSU strikes me as a team that could beat anybody on a good day, or lose to a top 30 team on a bad day. I would prefer not to play them and I think we won't unless it is in the championship game. Being the likely #1 overall seed means likely playing #8 to get to the Final Four.
It also means being 3rd is much better than 4th because that last #1 seed could easily face LSU in a tough road to the Final Four, and then Uconn in the semifinal. Most of the rest of the season and conference tournaments is going to be fighting for positions 2-5 IMO.

 

[Zarathustra]

We will beat them ALL! UCONN takes on all
comers.... and we have the "Dawgs" to it!

 

[ERWUC65]

None of the above?

• Texas has the best defensive team, but their offense gets “stuck” too easily and won’t be able to score with UConn.
• As others have mentioned, UCLA is big, but lacks athleticism. UConn’s athletic, relentless team will run circles around the Bruins. Add in that Cori Close is not a big game coach and never will be.
• Every championship that SC has won was powered by an AA center. Okot is decent, but easily neutralized by Serah/Janah or going small, forcing her to chase Sarah around the court.

I see UConn as a double-digit favorite over any of the 3. The one team that might give UConn a run for their money is LSU. The Tigers are fairly deep and athletic, with 3 legitimate scorers: Williams, Johnson & Fulwiley.

Good overall assessment, but with regard to LSU, they are really a bunch of individuals (vs team) who will tend to go ISO under pressure and Kim can't reign them in.

 

[WBBZen]

UCLA's weakness is their guards defense. Defensively, I just don't think they can keep up with UConn's guards. But they have much better scoring from their guards this year. Betts has become much tougher inside this year. I think UCLA is the biggest threat, simply because they are older, and have several consistent scoring threats.

Texas' weakness is their 3pt shooting. They rely on Booker and their posts to do most of the scoring. Booker can disappear some times.

South Carolina is still evolving a lot as a team I think. They showed flashes of brilliance against Vandy. It's been hard for me to get a good read on them as they can be inconsistent, but we'll see how they progress through February.

In the end, I don't think anyone matches up with UConn's defense. No one is defending like UConn is, with seamless switches, help side and hands in the lane.

 

[fomalhaut]

Texas would be the next stop on Connecticut's revenge tour (see the current thread on this).

 

[Dugway]

I'm not certain which of those three is the weakest; on paper probably the Gamecocks. They have one of their best players out with an ACL and another that was injured last season and yet still to return. However, they have the coaching staff, the history, and likely the mental fortitude all of which goes a long way when it comes to the big dance!

Honestly, don't know too much about the Texas Longhorns. They have Madison Booker and Rori Harmon, Oldaker is a name I remember as well. Vic Schaefer has been around forever; he has won National Championships in the past. As I recall, they split with the Gamecocks earlier this year, both winning very close games on their home courts. I'd think those two are probably evenly matched.

Folks on this forum tend to speak ill of Cory Close. One thing that she sure has EVERY year is talent! If you go back and watch her interview after getting beat by UConn in last year's final four, she was very self-reflecting. She, her staff, and her players had never been to the Final Four. She admitted that it was not just the basketball where she was inexperienced; but the media, the public appearances, the schedule for events, the assigned practice schedules, and of course the limelight that goes along with all of it. She said that they were all a bit star struck by it. Perhaps that learning curve is past them?

Right now, LSU seems to be coming on very strong and aside from seeding, the results of back in December of 2025 really are not a reflection of who is going to be good in March and April of 2026. Frankly, they may be the most difficult of the teams to get through although 'not spoken of'. I believe that the probabilities are that UConn will have to get through two of those discussed to win the National Championship; whichever two that might be!

 

[oldude]

Good overall assessment, but with regard to LSU, they are really a bunch of individuals (vs team) who will tend to go ISO under pressure and Kim can't rein them in.

Maybe. But Kim’s team have always been pretty good at getting the ball to their scorers where they are good at scoring.

 

[Bigboote]

My thinking is UCLA probably has the best mix of players of the four teams. As several have said, this is a down year personnel-wise for South Caroling. Texas is big, plus they have a good floor general in Harmon.

That said, we ARE talking about March. Dawn has won three NCAA championships. Vic has taken two teams to the final game with ZERO McDonalds All Americans, including one team that knocked undefeated UConn out in the Final Four. Cori has . . . made the final four last year, where lower-seeded UConn defeated them handily. She's a good coach, but has never put it together in the tournament, and last year was the first time she'd won a conference tournament.

My brain says that for UConn, UCLA would be the least-fearsome team to face, and Texas the most. That said, I wouldn't take any of them for granted, and Geno certainly wouldn't.

 

[The CDR-Ret]

None of the above?

• Texas has the best defensive team, but their offense gets “stuck” too easily and won’t be able to score with UConn.
• As others have mentioned, UCLA is big, but lacks athleticism. UConn’s athletic, relentless team will run circles around the Bruins. Add in that Cori Close is not a big game coach and never will be.
• Every championship that SC has won was powered by an AA center. Okot is decent, but easily neutralized by Serah/Janah or going small, forcing her to chase Sarah around the court.

I see UConn as a double-digit favorite over any of the 3. The one team that might give UConn a run for their money is LSU. The Tigers are fairly deep and athletic, with 3 legitimate scorers: Williams, Johnson & Fulwiley.

I'm thinking Most Probable matchup: Louisville (#2 seed in NCAA, only challenges are Duke on Thursday, and uNd at the end of the season before the ACC tourney; Duke has UNC twice and NC State once after Thursday) after they defeat LSU (4th #1 Seed as they (LSU) will beat either Texas or USC in the SEC Championship game (may need to beat both: semi, then final) after beating one of them in the next 13 days.

Geno will have the Huskies ready for the re-match, as they will have improved faster and more completely than Louisville since the first game of the year @ the Naval Academy. USNA is also leading the patriot League - must have had something rub off on the midshipmen as they were at the bottom of the league for the last several years...

Go Huskies!!!

 

[WBBZen]

I think there's a good chance Louisville, Michigan or Vandy is the 2 seed in UConn's bracket.

I think UCLA is a lock for the second #1 seed but there still could be movement for the last two #1 seeds depending on how SEC play goes.

 

[ABCDFE]

None of the above?

• Texas has the best defensive team, but their offense gets “stuck” too easily and won’t be able to score with UConn.
• As others have mentioned, UCLA is big, but lacks athleticism. UConn’s athletic, relentless team will run circles around the Bruins. Add in that Cori Close is not a big game coach and never will be.
• Every championship that SC has won was powered by an AA center. Okot is decent, but easily neutralized by Serah/Janah or going small, forcing her to chase Sarah around the court.

I see UConn as a double-digit favorite over any of the 3. The one team that might give UConn a run for their money is LSU. The Tigers are fairly deep and athletic, with 3 legitimate scorers: Williams, Johnson & Fulwiley.

I was just about to mention LSU as a dark horse. As much as ppl here on the BY lament Kim with her antics and scheduling, I've always thought she is a helluv of a coach and one that always has her team ready in March. It will be interesting to see how they fare against Texas and SC