Now what with the Brackets?

[DefenseBB]

With MSU losing, Louisville winning outright, what happens to the 1 seeds and 2 seeds? Louisville has to go to the #2 don’t they? MSU to #3 and does ND stay the 4th #1 seed or does Baylor slip in?

The #2 seeds have to be in this order ND/Baylor, Oregon, SC and Texas?
So does UConn get Texas or SC?
Does MSU now get Baylor in KC
Is it Louisville and Texas/SC in Lexington
With ND/Baylor along with Oregon in Seattle?

@Plebe and @vowelguy insight would be welcomed as our bracketology colleagues...and anyone else as
I don’t want to be exclusive but inclusive?

 

[IWearShoes]

Per Charlie Creme, MSU will remain the #2 overall seed and I agree. Unbeaten regular season playing in the SEC warrants that seeding.

 

[bballnut90]

With MSU losing, Louisville winning outright, what happens to the 1 seeds and 2 seeds? Louisville has to go to the #2 don’t they? MSU to #3 and does ND stay the 4th #1 seed or does Baylor slip in?

The #2 seeds have to be in this order ND/Baylor, Oregon, SC and Texas?
So does UConn get Texas or SC?
Does MSU now get Baylor in KC
Is it Louisville and Texas/SC in Lexington
With ND/Baylor along with Oregon in Seattle?

@Plebe and @vowelguy insight would be welcomed as our bracketology colleagues...and anyone else as
I don’t want to be exclusive but inclusive?

Ranking the top 8, my guess is the committee will have it as:
1. UCONN
2. Mississippi State
3. Louisville
4. Notre Dame
5. Baylor
6. Oregon (if they win)
7. South Carolina
8. Texas (assuming they lose)

Since the committee factors in conference opponents and regional location, my guess is we'll see the following pairings:
Albany-Connecticut vs. Texas (top #1, #4 two seed who gets the last open region)
KC-Mississippi State vs. Baylor (top #2, OKC is closest)
Lexington-Louisville vs. South Carolina (#3 two seed, Lexington is closer than Albany)
Spokane-Notre Dame vs. Oregon (#2 two seed, Spokane is closest)

A few things to consider:
1. With all of the hype A'ja Wilson has, I don't see SC going to Connecticut. It shouldn't be a factor, but ratings theoretically will be much higher with Wilson in the Final Four than if she's almost guaranteed to lose in the Elite 8 against the Huskies in Albany.

2. I also think the committee will recognize that SC's losses to Tennessee were without Wilson. At full strength, they likely win at least 1, if not both games. Take out those losses, and they've only lost to Notre Dame, Connecticut, Missouri and Mississippi State. They have wins against Missouri, Georgia (2x), Mississippi State, Texas A&M, Tennessee, Maryland and Duke. That is a MUCH better resume IMO, and I think they'd be a threat for a 1 seed.

3. Curious to see how the committee treats the Wallace injury. Baylor is absolutely a #1 seed IMO when you look at the product on the court. They're very good. If the freshmen have big showings against Texas tomorrow, I think the Wallace injury shouldn't hurt Baylor.

 

[Plebe]

Per Charlie Creme, MSU will remain the #2 overall seed and I agree. Unbeaten regular season playing in the SEC warrants that seeding.

The margin between their resumes is razor-thin, when you get into the nitty-gritty and team sheets.

Louisville has two losses, but one of those losses is to UConn, which for comparison purposes can be ignored.
Louisville's other loss (to Florida State) and Miss State's lone loss (to South Carolina) are roughly equivalent and mutually canceling.

So it comes down to a comparison of quality wins.

• Miss St has 11 top-50 (RPI) wins — plus quality wins over Oklahoma St and Arizona St, both probable tournament teams.
• Louisville has 13 top-50 (RPI) wins (one of them over #50 Miami).
  
  
• Miss St has 7 top-25 (RPI) wins — plus wins over #26 Georgia (a likely top-16 team per committee) and #28 LSU.
  
• Louisville has 7 top-25 (RPI) wins.
  
  
• Miss St has 2 wins over the committee's top 10 (#6 Oregon and #7 South Carolina).
• Louisville has 3 wins over the committee's top 10 (#6 Oregon and twice over #4 Notre Dame).

If the committee is weighting the entire body of work evenly, it might just come down to the fact that Louisville's two wins over ND are better than anything that Miss St has on its resume.

I say "evenly," though, because the committee has a certain reputation for not penalizing teams too heavily for what happens in their conference tournament. And if they're paying attention to how dominant vs. how close a team's body of wins have been, there's no doubt that Mississippi State was the more dominant team. Their only close calls were over Missouri and Oklahoma State. Louisville had extremely close wins over Ohio State, South Dakota State, Georgia Tech, Duke, Virginia Tech, and NC State.

To sum up: Louisville may get the slight edge on a comparison of marquee wins. Miss St may get the edge if the committee is swayed, even if subconsciously, by overall degree of dominance and/or by a tendency to be more forgiving of conference tournament setbacks.

 

[MilfordHusky]

Ranking the top 8, my guess is the committee will have it as:
1. UCONN
2. Mississippi State
3. Louisville
4. Notre Dame
5. Baylor
6. Oregon (if they win)
7. South Carolina
8. Texas (assuming they lose)

Since the committee factors in conference opponents and regional location, my guess is we'll see the following pairings:
Albany-Connecticut vs. Texas (top #1, #4 two seed who gets the last open region)
KC-Mississippi State vs. Baylor (top #2, OKC is closest)
Lexington-Louisville vs. South Carolina (#3 two seed, Lexington is closer than Albany)
Spokane-Notre Dame vs. Oregon (#2 two seed, Spokane is closest)

A few things to consider:
1. With all of the hype A'ja Wilson has, I don't see SC going to Connecticut. It shouldn't be a factor, but ratings theoretically will be much higher with Wilson in the Final Four than if she's almost guaranteed to lose in the Elite 8 against the Huskies in Albany.

2. I also think the committee will recognize that SC's losses to Tennessee were without Wilson. At full strength, they likely win at least 1, if not both games. Take out those losses, and they've only lost to Notre Dame, Connecticut, Missouri and Mississippi State. They have wins against Missouri, Georgia (2x), Mississippi State, Texas A&M, Tennessee, Maryland and Duke. That is a MUCH better resume IMO, and I think they'd be a threat for a 1 seed.

3. Curious to see how the committee treats the Wallace injury. Baylor is absolutely a #1 seed IMO when you look at the product on the court. They're very good. If the freshmen have big showings against Texas tomorrow, I think the Wallace injury shouldn't hurt Baylor.

I think I agree with your top 8. The top 6 are all very good. SC had a good game today, but I still think MSU is better.

I have MSU over Louisville based on a slightly better record (I know they didn’t play UConn) and starting 32-0 in a tough conference. They lost only to last year’s champs.

 

[bballnut90]

The margin between their resumes is razor-thin, when you get into the nitty-gritty and team sheets.

Louisville has two losses, but one of those losses is to UConn, which for comparison purposes can be ignored.
Louisville's other loss (to Florida State) and Miss State's lone loss (to South Carolina) are roughly equivalent and mutually canceling.

So it comes down to a comparison of quality wins.

• Miss St has 11 top-50 (RPI) wins — plus quality wins over Oklahoma St and Arizona St, both probable tournament teams.
• Louisville has 13 top-50 (RPI) wins (one of them over #50 Miami).
  
  
• Miss St has 7 top-25 (RPI) wins — plus wins over #26 Georgia (a likely top-16 team per committee) and #28 LSU.
  
• Louisville has 7 top-25 (RPI) wins.
  
  
• Miss St has 2 wins over the committee's top 10 (#6 Oregon and #7 South Carolina).
• Louisville has 3 wins over the committee's top 10 (#6 Oregon and twice over #4 Notre Dame).

If the committee is weighting the entire body of work evenly, it might just come down to the fact that Louisville's two wins over ND are better than anything that Miss St has on its resume.

I say "evenly," though, because the committee has a certain reputation for not penalizing teams too heavily for what happens in their conference tournament. And if they're paying attention to how dominant vs. how close a team's body of wins have been, there's no doubt that Mississippi State was the more dominant team. Their only close calls were over Missouri and Oklahoma State. Louisville had extremely close wins over Ohio State, South Dakota State, Georgia Tech, Duke, Virginia Tech, and NC State.

To sum up: Louisville may get the slight edge on a comparison of marquee wins. Miss St may get the edge if the committee is swayed, even if subconsciously, by overall degree of dominance and/or by a tendency to be more forgiving of conference tournament setbacks.

Great post. Eye test says Mississippi State is the better team IMO, especially when you see how easily Louisville could have 5-6 losses. Out of the top 5 teams, I think Louisville will be most prone to an upset before the Elite 8, but Ill give credit to Walz where it’s due. This is the best team he’s produced during his time at Louisville and I think best coaching job overall. They are significantly better than I thought they’d be entering the season. Same with Mississippi State.

 

[Wbbfan1]

Charlie's latest Bracket. Updated March 5th.

Bracketology with Charlie Creme

Also has UCF as the 5th Team out. Could change if they beat USF today.

 

[Wbbfan1]

There are some interesting 2nd round games if the 1st round goes as it should

Duke vs Texas A&M
Missouri vs Standard. Similar team styles. I think Stanford wins.
Oregon St vs Ohio St
South Florida vs NC State
Iowas vs Lady Vols

 

[Vowelguy]

My current thought:

Alb = UConn . / Texas. / Fla St / Georgia
Lex = L-ville / SoCar. / OhioSt / Stanford
KC. = Miss St / Baylor / UCLA . / NC St
Spk = No Dame / Oregon / Tenn . / TAMU

 

[oldude]

My greatest concern is UConn’s path to a potential 12th championship. With injuries/depth issues, the Huskies appear more vulnerable than in past years.

My dream scenario has TX as the #2 seed in the Albany region. Assuming that UConn makes it to the FF, I would hope they matchup with the winner of ND/Oregon in the National semifinal. That leaves one great effort against whichever team emerges from among MS St, Louisville, Baylor & SC on the other side of the bracket.

 

[scubadog]

My top ten EYE TEST from this weekend :
UConn
South Carolina
Miss. St.
Baylor--We really don't know how good they are. IMO they haven't played anyone
Louisville
Oregon
N.D.
Texas
Ohio St.
UCLA/ FLA. St. ---Even

 

[southie]

My current thought:

Alb = UConn . / Texas. / Fla St / Georgia
Lex = L-ville / SoCar. / OhioSt / Stanford
KC. = Miss St / Baylor / UCLA . / NC St
Spk = No Dame / Oregon / Tenn . / TAMU

That's pretty much how I see it (as far as the Top 12). I think South Carolina "moves up" based on their consecutive wins over Tennessee, Georgia, and Miss. State.

Texas can't move up from #8 as two seeds in front of them won conference tourneys yesterday. In the last couple of days Texas' RPI has moved down to #12 as wins against Iowa State and West Virginia apparently hurt a bit. So, in the event Texas loses tonight, perhaps we even move down to #10 (wishful thinking on my part) and UCLA and Tennessee leapfrog us a bit.

 

[Centerstream]

It's kind of a shame that UConn has already played most of the 2 seeds. I don't like or agree with playing teams again unless it's in the FF4.
My caveat is Baylor should be a 1 seed, not ND. (If Baylor defeats Texas tonight.)

 

[scubadog]

It's kind of a shame that UConn has already played most of the 2 seeds. I don't like or agree with playing teams again unless it's in the FF4.
My caveat is Baylor should be a 1 seed, not ND. (If Baylor defeats Texas tonight.)

To me , only Louisville and UConn are the clear cut #1 seeds, because of their records and strength of schedule. SC, Miss. St. Oregon, Baylor and N.D., are interchangeable 1 or 2 seeds Texas a clear 2 seed. If Caron- Goudreau is healthy , they are far better than they have shown down the stretch.

 

[scubadog]

That's pretty much how I see it (as far as the Top 12). I think South Carolina "moves up" based on their consecutive wins over Tennessee, Georgia, and Miss. State.

Texas can't move up from #8 as two seeds in front of them won conference tourneys yesterday. In the last couple of days Texas' RPI has moved down to #12 as wins against Iowa State and West Virginia apparently hurt a bit. So, in the event Texas loses tonight, perhaps we even move down to #10 (wishful thinking on my part) and UCLA and Tennessee leapfrog us a bit.

Ucla and Tenn are not better than Texas. Caron- Goudreau is the glue of that team . Is she back healthy ? Problem is, the committee doesn't want to send Texas to Albany bracket. They were in Bridgeport last year.

 

[Golden Husky]

My greatest concern is UConn’s path to a potential 12th championship. With injuries/depth issues, the Huskies appear more vulnerable than in past years.

My dream scenario has TX as the #2 seed in the Albany region. Assuming that UConn makes it to the FF, I would hope they matchup with the winner of ND/Oregon in the National semifinal. That leaves one great effort against whichever team emerges from among MS St, Louisville, Baylor & SC on the other side of the bracket.

So Louisville and Baylor are on the other side of UConn's bracket? The way Crème has it set up (see WBBfan1's link), that isn't the case.

 

[Vowelguy]

So Louisville and Baylor are on the other side of UConn's bracket? The way Crème has it set up (see WBBfan1's link), that isn't the case.

Pay no attention to the bracket graphic in the background of Cremes bracket. It is just there as an illustration, NOT his prediction of the semis. We learned this last year from him directly.

I am sure he would have an Albany-Spokane semi.

 

[GiladKatzDeli]

If I had my pick of seeds in UConn's bracket, I'd pick #2 Oregon (yes I know they're good, but would rather face them than SC again), #3 Ohio State (the weakest of the projected 3 seeds IMO), and #4 Georgia (the weakest 4 seed).

 

[Golden Husky]

Pay no attention to the bracket graphic in the background of Cremes bracket. It is just there as an illustration, NOT his prediction of the semis. We learned this last year from him directly.

I am sure he would have an Albany-Spokane semi.

Okay, thanks.

 

[southie]

It's kind of a shame that UConn has already played most of the 2 seeds. I don't like or agree with playing teams again unless it's in the FF4.
My caveat is Baylor should be a 1 seed, not ND. (If Baylor defeats Texas tonight.)

So, you'd rather not play any of the potential #2 seeds during the regular the season? That's what helps your RPI and gives you quality wins so you can attain the #1 overall seed. You can't have it both ways.

 

[southie]

Ucla and Tenn are not better than Texas. Caron- Goudreau is the glue of that team . Is she back healthy ? Problem is, the committee doesn't want to send Texas to Albany bracket. They were in Bridgeport last year.

Not sure how you are quantifying "better". They hold a head-to-head win over Texas. Not sure if they have played "better" than Texas over their last 5 games or not.

 

[Centerstream]

So, you'd rather not play any of the potential #2 seeds during the regular the season? That's what helps your RPI and gives you quality wins so you can attain the #1 overall seed. You can't have it both ways.

Not worried about our #1 overall seeding.
I am saying don't put a team that we have already beaten as our 2 seed. However that might be possible this year and if so, doesn't mean that I have to like it.

 

[southie]

Not worried about our #1 overall seeding.
I am saying don't put a team that we have already beaten as our 2 seed. However that might be possible this year and if so, doesn't mean that I have to like it.

As you said , you are concerned with UConn.

But, with your same logic:

UConn can't match up with: South Carolina, Texas
Notre Dame can't match up with: UConn, South Carolina
Miss. State can't match up with: Oregon
Louisville can't match up with: Oregon
South Carolina can't match up with: UConn, Notre Dame
Texas can't match up with: UConn
Oregon can't match up with: Miss. State and Louisville
Baylor: did not play any of the Top 4 projected #1 seeds