Nova -1.5 | The Boneyard

Nova -1.5

The line went from -2.5 to +1 on DK. Was wondering if someone else was questionable. But maybe that's just the home team slide.
 
We deserve to be underdogs. And it’s not just based on Liam being out. I’m just looking for some light to turn on as far as defense and rebounding. Hurley refuses to put in Nowell, IA, and Singare. Refuses to play two big. Just have to hit 50% threes every game.
 
I took last night -1 and ML was -110 so basically pick em, moved to +100 and +1 so not drastic but seems people are picking Nova.

I take UConn because they have a better roster and better coach and need to win as much as Nova. Nova may have the best single player, so we’ll see.
 
Not entirely sure this is accurate, but multiple places (thespread.com & Action Sports Network) have 97% of tickets on UConn. Even if it isn't, a majority of people will bet UConn because of their rank.

The fact that the line moved from UConn -2.5 (Open) to Nova -1 / -1.5 (Current) when a majority of bets have been placed on UConn means the sharper bettors, or "professionals," are hammering Nova.

As sacrilegious as it is, I'm on Nova -1 with the hopes UConn somehow pulls this out. Win / Win scenario. I have trust the best coach in the country will be ready for this and have our guys ready in this type of spot.
 
2014DualCs said:
Not entirely sure this is accurate, but multiple places (thespread.com & Action Sports Network) have 97% of tickets on UConn. Even if it isn't, a majority of people will bet UConn because of their rank.

The fact that the line moved from UConn -2.5 (Open) to Nova -1 / -1.5 (Current) when a majority of bets have been placed on UConn means the sharper bettors, or "professionals," are hammering Nova.

As sacrilegious as it is, I'm on Nova -1 with the hopes UConn somehow pulls this out. Win / Win scenario. I have trust the best coach in the country will be ready for this and have our guys ready in this type of spot.
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Banned to Scotland Boneyard
 
How many people on The Yard here betting these games? What % is it? 5%?
Probably close to 100% of those clicking this thread?
I don’t really gamble but this doesn’t appear to be an easy one.
 
2014DualCs said:
Not entirely sure this is accurate, but multiple places (thespread.com & Action Sports Network) have 97% of tickets on UConn. Even if it isn't, a majority of people will bet UConn because of their rank.

The fact that the line moved from UConn -2.5 (Open) to Nova -1 / -1.5 (Current) when a majority of bets have been placed on UConn means the sharper bettors, or "professionals," are hammering Nova.

As sacrilegious as it is, I'm on Nova -1 with the hopes UConn somehow pulls this out. Win / Win scenario. I have trust the best coach in the country will be ready for this and have our guys ready in this type of spot.
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Damn, you took Nova at the low end? Thank you for the mojo. They suck this year. Normally a home court slide is 0.5-1.5 pts. The fact this slid 3.5 pts without an additional injury is weird. Must be the public processing our PC home loss ATS that the algos didn't consider. Or them figuring in Liam's absence as more significant. Sucks for me that I took us in a few 6 game parlays yesterday at open. Pray for me/us.
 
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jibsey said:
How many people on The Yard here betting these games? What % is it? 5%?
Probably close to 100% of those clicking this thread?
I don’t really gamble but this doesn’t appear to be an easy one.
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Never bet on UConn or any of my favorite teams just bad mojo. But I feel like I should have gotten a few free dinners from my friends who I have convinced to bet on my favorite football team or UConn over the last few years.
 
Nothing to do with wagering but pretty uncomfortable feeling on this one today.
 
Jay-Bone said:
Damn, you took Nova at the low end? Thank you for the mojo. They suck this year. Normally a home court slide is 0.5-1.5 pts. The fact this slid 3.5 pts without an additional injury is weird. Must be the public processing our PC home loss ATS that the algos didn't consider. Or them figuring in Liam's absence as more significant. Sucks for me that I took us in a few 6 game parlays yesterday at open. Pray for me/us.
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Yea, didn’t get the best line because I usually try to see where people are betting and go against the tide (bet with Vegas).

But majority of the public is actually siding with UConn, which makes the line pushing towards Nova that much scarier.

Again… hope I’m wrong and lose my $! But hedged so I at least have something to hold onto if things go south.
 
HooperScooper said:
No idea. But I would assume they need to take injuries into account or what is the use of the predictor?
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It's like any other analytics thing. I don't think kenpom or torvik, etc are adjusting for random injuries, except maybe if they are season-ending.
 
2014DualCs said:
Yea, didn’t get the best line because I usually try to see where people are betting and go against the tide (bet with Vegas).

But majority of the public is actually siding with UConn, which makes the line pushing towards Nova that much scarier.

Again… hope I’m wrong and lose my $! But hedged so I at least have something to hold onto if things go south.
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Well played. Man I hate when I let my homerism cloud my judgement.
 

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