Not that it's going to happen...

[connhusky]

But what would we need to do to get an at-large bid? Is it even statistically possible?

If we were to win the remainder of our regular season games, including SMU (RPI = 17) and Cincy (RPI = 14), beat one of them again in the AAC tourney and lose to one of them in the finals, do we get an at-large?

Yes - there's a <1% chance of this occurring... but still a chance

 

[7774]

But what would we need to do to get an at-large bid? Is it even statistically possible?

If we were to win the remainder of our regular season games, including SMU (RPI = 17) and Cincy (RPI = 14), beat one of them again in the AAC tourney and lose to one of them in the finals, do we get an at-large?

Yes - there's a <1% chance of this occurring... but still a chance

Don't Forget What Crap is On The Bubble

 

[Uconn77Duke74]

We run table and lose in Tourney final -we'd end up 13-5 conference record, 20-13 overall. We'd be 13-2 over last 15 games with presumably 3 top 20 wins. Would really need to see who we'd be up against bubble wise and hope committee gives a ton of credit to recent results. At least in that scenario I'd watch selection Sunday.

 

[tzznandrew]

But what would we need to do to get an at-large bid? Is it even statistically possible?

If we were to win the remainder of our regular season games, including SMU (RPI = 17) and Cincy (RPI = 14), beat one of them again in the AAC tourney and lose to one of them in the finals, do we get an at-large?

Yes - there's a <1% chance of this occurring... but still a chance

The short answer is there really isn't a chance.

The long answer is explaining that a 19-13 team with an RPI of 54 (even with a SOS of 34) is in trouble.
19-13--FORGET CHAMINADE, THE GAME DOESN'T COUNT
R/N: 7-8
vs. T25: 3-4
vs. T50: 3-5
vs. T100: 5-9
4 sub-100 losses...ouch.

Now, really what we need are the American teams who are right there around 100 (103 UCF, 106 Temple, 113 Memphis, 116 Tulsa) to crawl into the Top 100 (we're 102). We went 5-2 against them, and 10-11 vs T100 looks much better than 5-9. It would also pull away 2 sub-100 losses.

But I don't see how they can all do that, and it's more likely none but one or two do, including UConn.

So that's the long answer for why, even in your wonderfully optimistic scenario, UConn isn't going to get an at-large.

 

[HungryHuskies]

What we need to do is fill the XL Center in March

 

[80shusky]

The chances of us running the table are just a hair below highly improbable.

 

[pepband99]

We run table and lose in Tourney final -we'd end up 13-5 conference record, 20-13 overall. We'd be 13-2 over last 15 games with presumably 3 top 20 wins. Would really need to see who we'd be up against bubble wise and hope committee gives a ton of credit to recent results. At least in that scenario I'd watch selection Sunday.

This. Given past committee handling of the AAC, it would be a massive longshot, but not impossible. Highly highly unlikely.

I've been resigned to a postseason-less year since December, so even the NIT would be a blessing.

 

[CardiacAndre7]

Just win the AAC tournament...

 

[ConnHuskBask]

Interesting question: What's more likely getting an at large in that scenario or winning the AACT?

 

[HuskyHawk]

The short answer is there really isn't a chance.

The long answer is explaining that a 19-13 team with an RPI of 54 (even with a SOS of 34) is in trouble.
19-13--FORGET CHAMINADE, THE GAME DOESN'T COUNT
R/N: 7-8
vs. T25: 3-4
vs. T50: 3-5
vs. T100: 5-9
4 sub-100 losses...ouch.

Now, really what we need are the American teams who are right there around 100 (103 UCF, 106 Temple, 113 Memphis, 116 Tulsa) to crawl into the Top 100 (we're 102). We went 5-2 against them, and 10-11 vs T100 looks much better than 5-9. It would also pull away 2 sub-100 losses.

But I don't see how they can all do that, and it's more likely none but one or two do, including UConn.

So that's the long answer for why, even in your wonderfully optimistic scenario, UConn isn't going to get an at-large.

But they are supposedly not relying on RPI as much anymore. So look it over again with BPI. College Basketball Power Index - NCAA Tournament Predictions

We are currently 88 in BPI. Memphis is at 103...need them to win. Temple is 105...need them to win. UCF is 70 in BPI, solidly under 100. Kenpom is similar, except Memphis is 90 there. Temple still outside top 100.

I'm not saying it changes things significantly, but there are a ton of P5 schools with strong RPI numbers and comparatively weak BPI and Kenpom numbers. Almost every school in the AAC is the opposite, with BPI/Kenpom much higher than RPI. So what does the committee do?

 

[MexicoHusky]

If by some miracle we win out the regular season then make it to the AAC finals I would give us a really good chance to win the final game. Considering the quality of this year's team that run would rival 11' and 14'.

 

[Jerry1714]

This. Given past committee handling of the AAC, it would be a massive longshot, but not impossible. Highly highly unlikely.

I've been resigned to a postseason-less year since December, so even the NIT would be a blessing.

Well if the committee handles the AAC as they did last year then we have a chance.

2016 Tulsa: RPI 60, SOS 62, Kenpom 65, Top 100 8-8, Sub 100 losses 3.
2016 Temple: RPI 63, SOS 88, Kenpom 86, Top 100 7-9, Sub 100 losses 2.

2017 UConn: RPI 54, SOS 34, Topp 100 5-9, Sub 100 losses 4.

Temple and Tulsa had no business in the tournament last year, so maybe the committee falls in love with the AAC again and throws UConn a bone.

 

[awfuldan]

Let's beat Houston tonight.

Top 3 in the AAC regular season would be among the most impressive things on our resume. Top 5 is borderline essential, in any scenario, to a post-season bid.

 

[pepband99]

Well if the committee handles the AAC as they did last year then we have a chance.

2016 Tulsa: RPI 60, SOS 62, Kenpom 65, Top 100 8-8, Sub 100 losses 3.
2016 Temple: RPI 63, SOS 88, Kenpom 86, Top 100 7-9, Sub 100 losses 2.

2017 UConn: RPI 54, SOS 34, Topp 100 5-9, Sub 100 losses 4.

Temple and Tulsa had no business in the tournament last year, so maybe the committee falls in love with the AAC again and throws UConn a bone.

Yep. I'm not at the point where I'm rooting against the bubble yet, but seeing Clemson and GIT lose last night doesn't hurt, either.

 

[Balker]

The committee would consider injuries. They would consider Jalen Adams absence during critical losses. They would consider a team that went 13-2 to close the season. They always have, and they should.

The chances we beat SMU and Cinci are pretty slim though. And we have to beat those two teams probably 3 times in a row for this to even matter. But if we ran the table and lost in the aac final, particularly in a close game to SMU or Cincinnati, I'd be shocked if we weren't in.

 

[HuskyBandDad]

Lunardi said we have a chance if we win out and lose in AAC final. Take it for what it is worth.

 

[AZHuskiePop]

Lunardi said we have a chance if we win out and lose in AAC final. Take it for what it is worth.

The reality is no way we win out.
Our Scedule is brutal and we have no secondary PG
Even Kemba had Bazz and Bazz had RB and even a freshman TSam
TSam should have stayed he be getting more minutes this year than he is getting at PSU.
I checked his Stats, he getting 4 minutes a game and shooting 33% from the three.Thats surprising
He might be hurt or in the doghouse because he has only played a couple of minutes in their last 4 games. Unfortunately he couldn't come to grips with the fact he was never going to be the lead guard. But our history is filled with upperclassmen who accepted thrir roles and still lead by example.TSam could have joined that group.
We're a backup PG away from bring a darn good team especially if he is senior who has been In big games.
Our only real shot is the AAC tourney and thats pretty slim.

 

[UConnRock]

From the perspective of the selection committee, the primary impact of UConn winning out and bumping their RPI into the 50s or 60s would be to make Syracuse's loss to UConn look better thus allowing Syracuse to get a tourney bid.

 

[upstater]

But what would we need to do to get an at-large bid? Is it even statistically possible?

If we were to win the remainder of our regular season games, including SMU (RPI = 17) and Cincy (RPI = 14), beat one of them again in the AAC tourney and lose to one of them in the finals, do we get an at-large?

Yes - there's a <1% chance of this occurring... but still a chance

Only if they give us a break for losing Jalen Adams to a concussion for 2 games.

UConn should have beaten Tulsa and Auburn. With Adams they do.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Only if they give us a break for losing Jalen Adams to a concussion for 2 games.

UConn should have beaten Tulsa and Auburn. With Adams they do.

Yes, easily. And honestly, if you are taking the "best 64" and if UConn wins out to the title game of the AAC tournament, we would clearly be one of the best 64.

I'm not expecting it. UConn needs to win tonight for the NIT anyway. Have to stay above .500, especially with very tough games in 2 of the next 3.

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

Any ACC team with at least a .500 record is getting in. If we win the tourney SMU or Cincy is probably gonna get left out for a 16-14 Clemson team.

 

[champs99and04]

The short answer is there really isn't a chance.

The long answer is explaining that a 19-13 team with an RPI of 54 (even with a SOS of 34) is in trouble.
19-13--FORGET CHAMINADE, THE GAME DOESN'T COUNT
R/N: 7-8
vs. T25: 3-4
vs. T50: 3-5
vs. T100: 5-9
4 sub-100 losses...ouch.

Now, really what we need are the American teams who are right there around 100 (103 UCF, 106 Temple, 113 Memphis, 116 Tulsa) to crawl into the Top 100 (we're 102). We went 5-2 against them, and 10-11 vs T100 looks much better than 5-9. It would also pull away 2 sub-100 losses.

But I don't see how they can all do that, and it's more likely none but one or two do, including UConn.

So that's the long answer for why, even in your wonderfully optimistic scenario, UConn isn't going to get an at-large.

I think we'd definitely get in with that resume, or at least should.

 

[champs99and04]

Georgia tech lost to Clemson last night, btw. Damaging loss for them

 

[whaler11]

Georgia tech lost to Clemson last night, btw. Damaging loss for them

Georgia Tech lost to State

 

[QDOG5]

Any ACC team with at least a .500 record is getting in. If we win the tourney SMU or Cincy is probably gonna get left out for a 16-14 Clemson team.[/QUOTE
Wrong. Both of these teams are in regardless of how they finish the season.