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[QUOTE="CoastAtlantic, post: 3047873, member: 5174"]
[USER=386000905]     Christopher Lambert‏ @theDudeofWV[/USER]                  [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/1098314500602818561']3h3 hours ago[/URL]                                
Some great discussion about the Pac 12 & B12 lately. I thought I would go over some basics about expansion.

[USER=386000905]     Christopher Lambert‏ @theDudeofWV[/USER]                  [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/1098315230885670913']3h3 hours ago[/URL]                                 
1. Realignment is only posdible if the move: A. makes the network more $; B. Makes the Conf more $ & C. The school is in distress, usually financial, and the move cures the problem for the school.  All three must be true for a move to be possible.

[USER=386000905]     Christopher Lambert‏ @theDudeofWV[/USER]                  [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/1098315832919232514']3h3 hours ago[/URL]                                   
The SEC has the most undervalued OTA TV deal. When the SEC signed the deal with CBS it wasn't the SEC we know today. CBS got the SEC on the super cheap. It's going to take a huge leap.

[USER=386000905]     Christopher Lambert‏ @theDudeofWV[/USER]                  [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/1098316020417220609']3h3 hours ago[/URL]                                   
An SEC regular season football game is the most valuable commodity in sports. The only reason the B1G is even close to the SEC in earnings is the super cheap CBS deal.

[USER=386000905]     Christopher Lambert‏ @theDudeofWV[/USER]                  [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/1098316423666024453']3h3 hours ago[/URL]                               
The ACC is the only conference to have money added to its OTA the TV deal for expansion and that was an accounting trick requiring years added onto the base contract with a lump payout at the end. That deal was what angered FSU and Clemson.

[USER=386000905]     Christopher Lambert‏ @theDudeofWV[/USER]                  [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/1098316650565328896']3h3 hours ago[/URL]                                
Neither the SEC or B1G had money added to their primary TV deals for expansion. The reason is that OTA networks have limited slots available for broadcast. Thus more inventory does not equal more money.

[USER=386000905]     Christopher Lambert‏ @theDudeofWV[/USER]                  [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/1098316926206574592']2h2 hours ago[/URL]                            
The carriage fee model was the reason for B1G expansion. The SEC had a chance to add TAMU and did. Mizzou was added because of carriage fees, but TAMU technically was not.

[USER=386000905]     Christopher Lambert‏ @theDudeofWV[/USER]                  [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/1098316997459349505']2h2 hours ago[/URL]                        
(Although TAMU added huge carriage fees for SECN.)

[USER=386000905]     Christopher Lambert‏ @theDudeofWV[/USER]                  [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/1098317331812544512']2h2 hours ago[/URL]                              
The B1G and SEC are making so much money under the carriage fee model that only two school would add enough value to justify expansion: Texas and Notre Dame. OU does not have enough cable subscribers in Oklahoma to provide enough profit under that model.

[USER=386000905]     Christopher Lambert‏ @theDudeofWV[/USER]                  [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/1098317700537954304']2h2 hours ago[/URL]                               
ESPN owns an option on all of the Longhorns media rights until 2035. That means UT cannot leave the Big 12 and join another conf. without ESPN's permission.

[USER=386000905]     Christopher Lambert‏ @theDudeofWV[/USER]                  [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/1098318247546572800']2h2 hours ago[/URL]                           
The networks want the p5 conferences to remain as they are. They don't want to see a consolidation of rights that would reduce available inventory and increase exponentially the rights fees paid. That's why they are willing to overpay to keep the Big 12 and ACC intact.

[USER=386000905]     Christopher Lambert‏ @theDudeofWV[/USER]                  [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/1098318418409852934']2h2 hours ago[/URL]                       
The Pac 12 could lose two programs to the Big 12 and both would be more profitable as long as the Pac 12 doesn't lose a tentpole program.

[USER=386000905]     Christopher Lambert‏ @theDudeofWV[/USER]                  [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/1098318885474979841']2h2 hours ago[/URL]                     
Expansion was a mistake for the Pac 12. 14 teams just cut into the conference pie. Losing two would mean the pie is divided by 12 pieces instead of 14.

[USER=386000905]     Christopher Lambert‏ @theDudeofWV[/USER]                  [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/1098319263457255424']2h2 hours ago[/URL]                     
I don't see how the math works for  the Pac 12 with the $500M for 10% idea. The pie is already divided into 15 slices... add a 16th and everyone's slice gets smaller. The $5 billion valuation is likely to get shot down.

[USER=386000905]     Christopher Lambert‏ @theDudeofWV[/USER]                  [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/1098319784876351488']2h2 hours ago[/URL]                             
According to people I talk to the SEC has a $5 billion valuation. The Big 12  and B1G are around $3.1 to $3.5 billion. The ACC is next and the Pac 12 dead last.  Who's going to invest $500M in a business worth $3 billion at the most?

[USER=386000905]     Christopher Lambert‏ @theDudeofWV[/USER]                  [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/1098321499881115648']2h2 hours ago[/URL]                       
The Pac 12's current TV deal is worth a total of $3 billion. That's the current valuation. A $5 billion valuation is a 60% increase!

[USER=386000905]     Christopher Lambert‏ @theDudeofWV[/USER]                  [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/1098324574024945665']2h2 hours ago[/URL]                           
My guess is that if the Pac 12 is serious about the bridge loan & investor it will further fracture the Pac 12 and almost push programs to consider leaving.

[USER=386000905]     Christopher Lambert‏ @theDudeofWV[/USER]                  [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/1098327068943749127']2h2 hours ago[/URL]                        
The Pac 12 has time to fix it.  They could be sitting pretty in five years, but right now they are in trouble.

[USER=386000905]     Christopher Lambert‏ @theDudeofWV[/USER]                  [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/1098327484695744514']2h2 hours ago[/URL]                           
The very fact the Pac 12 is considering a bridge loan is testament to their issues. The conf is telling programs with revenue issues they have a plan to bridge the gap to the next TV contract in the hopes those programs don't look elsewhere.

[USER=386000905]     Christopher Lambert‏ @theDudeofWV[/USER]                  [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/1098327669102518273']2h2 hours ago[/URL]                         
And I believe three or four of them have to be looking at the Big 12 and thinking they will get a better deal.

[USER=386000905]     Christopher Lambert‏ @theDudeofWV[/USER]                  [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/1098328174444843022']2h2 hours ago[/URL]                      
The Pac 12 knows that networks have overpaid to keep conferences viable before. That's a safe bet, but the bridge loan idea is risky.

[USER=386000905]     Christopher Lambert‏ @theDudeofWV[/USER]                  [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/1098328814604697600']2h2 hours ago[/URL]                         
This is just me but if WVU were to go to the ACC and the Big 12 dropped Baylor and merged with the Pac 12  the new 18 member conf would have two 9 team divisions and immediately rival the SEC & B1G.

[USER=386000905]     Christopher Lambert‏ @theDudeofWV[/USER]                  [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/1098342070018867201']57m57 minutes ago[/URL]                              
Only 1 ACC program bested WVU in actual game attendance in 2018 - Clemson.

[USER=386000905]     Christopher Lambert‏ @theDudeofWV[/USER]                  [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/1098343979760918528']49m49 minutes ago[/URL]                            
WVU averaged 58,157 for six home games equalling 97% capacity.

[USER=386000905]     Christopher Lambert‏ @theDudeofWV[/USER]                  [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/1098344655241003008']47m47 minutes ago[/URL]                        
Only Clemson & NCST had a greater % of capacity for attendance than WVU and both had 7 home games to WVU's 6.

[USER=386000905]     Christopher Lambert‏ @theDudeofWV[/USER]                  [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/1098345811996495873']43m43 minutes ago[/URL]          
9 of 14 ACC programs averaged less than 55K fans for home games. 11 of 14 averaged less than 90% total capacity. 9  averaged less than 45K home attendance.

ME: Wow! Arithmetic is not his strong suit. :confused::rolleyes:
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