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Message: [QUOTE="Jae-VT, post: 1834036, member: 7267"] I don't quite know what to make of Flug or his hypothesis, but I do believe the logic of his are the following: [LIST] [*]OU and UT will be free agents by 2024/2025 when the current TV contract runs out. [*]Big 12 tried to squeeze more money from ESPN and FOX through the threat of adding non-P5 schools into the Big 12 through the pro rata clause in the current contract. ESPN and Big 12 balked and called Big 12 bluff. Currently it looks like the bluff failed since multiple news outlets are now writing articles about how Big 12 expansion will not happening. [*]The Big 12 schools not named OU, UT now know that OU and UT will leave the Big 12. These schools now realize that they must do something to retain as much money as possible for the eventual loss of UT and OU from Big 12. [*]So the "Orphaned" schools are going to band together and bargain with OU and UT with the following proposal: We let you out of the GOR much sooner than 2024/2025, but OU and UT must use their influences with ESPN and FOX to secure a new TV contract for the "Orphaned" schools. [/LIST] My personal speculation is that the new tv contract will not retain the pro rata clause, nor will it pay out as much as the current Big-12 contract. But the orphaned schools might be able to retain the rights to the Sugar Bowl and "P5" status, even though it will then be a "P4" world. If I had to guess, and I am not an expert at all, the new TV contract will start at $20 million per school per year as a starting point and probably end-up around $8 - $12 million per school per year for the new "Big 12" conference. I believe the Big 12 saw what happened to the Big East Schools and are trying to avoid that fate given their current situation. [/QUOTE]

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