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Message: [QUOTE="CoastAtlantic, post: 1766729, member: 5174"] [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV'][B]Christopher Lambert[/B] ‏@theDudeofWV [/URL] [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/762828004640886784']1h1 hour ago[/URL] Fans make the mistake of focusing on the strengths of their program & perceived improvement as a member of the P5. [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV'][B]Christopher Lambert[/B] ‏@theDudeofWV [/URL] [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/762828178603831297']1h1 hour ago[/URL] But conferences don't give goodwill valuations. A program is judged on its numbers. [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV'][B]Christopher Lambert[/B] ‏@theDudeofWV [/URL] [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/762828344434057216']1h1 hour ago[/URL] Just one area of weakness can be devastating. [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV'][B]Christopher Lambert[/B] ‏@theDudeofWV [/URL] [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/762828850959118336']1h1 hour ago[/URL] BYU has honor code/LBGT issues that threaten their pole position. They must satisfy B12 leadership those areas are fixed. [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV'][B]Christopher Lambert[/B] ‏@theDudeofWV [/URL] [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/762828939626737664']1h1 hour ago[/URL] Every program has its warts. [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV'][B]Christopher Lambert[/B] ‏@theDudeofWV [/URL] [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/762830110324121604']1h1 hour ago[/URL] So what does the B12 need if the money is the same regardless? [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV'][B]Christopher Lambert[/B] ‏@theDudeofWV [/URL] [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/762830334014750720']1h1 hour ago[/URL] The B12 needs: 1. Programs that enhance/do not degrade the football reputation of the conference. [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV'][B]Christopher Lambert[/B] ‏@theDudeofWV [/URL] [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/762830503594627072']60m60 minutes ago[/URL] 2. Fit within the Big 12 culture with similar facilities & commitment to football. [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV'][B]Christopher Lambert[/B] ‏@theDudeofWV [/URL] [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/762830685396664320']60m60 minutes ago[/URL] 3. Enhance (or do not detract from) the academic reputation of the conference. [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV'][B]Christopher Lambert[/B] ‏@theDudeofWV [/URL] [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/762830987164315648']59m59 minutes ago[/URL] 4. Show the potential/commitment to grow the football program & become a market leader. [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV'][B]Christopher Lambert[/B] ‏@theDudeofWV [/URL] [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/762831189724041216']58m58 minutes ago[/URL] 5. Expand the footprint of the conference for recruiting & potential network down the line. [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV'][B]Christopher Lambert[/B] ‏@theDudeofWV [/URL] [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/762831321689391104']58m58 minutes ago[/URL] 6. Are acceptable to the Big 12's TV partners. [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV'][B]Christopher Lambert[/B] ‏@theDudeofWV [/URL] [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/762831533786923009']57m57 minutes ago[/URL] Realistically you have 5 (6 counting UCF) programs that met those criteria. [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV'][B]Christopher Lambert[/B] ‏@theDudeofWV [/URL] [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/762831660320710657']57m57 minutes ago[/URL] So start sorting them out by the programs with the fewest warts. [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV'][B]Christopher Lambert[/B] ‏@theDudeofWV [/URL] [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/762832007487483904']55m55 minutes ago[/URL] Now give the most weight to TV ratings & the last, say 5 years, of football. What order so you have them? [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV'][B]Christopher Lambert[/B] ‏@theDudeofWV [/URL] [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/762835291174424576']43m43 minutes ago[/URL] I'm over simplifying for the sake of illustration. My point is that very quickly a stratification of candidates emerges. [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV'][B]Christopher Lambert[/B] ‏@theDudeofWV [/URL] [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/762835756809228288']41m41 minutes ago[/URL] BYU is alone in group A. Group B has UC, UH & UCF. Group C has UCONN, Memphis, CSU. Group F has Tulane. [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV'][B]Christopher Lambert[/B] ‏@theDudeofWV [/URL] [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/762837131932737536']36m36 minutes ago[/URL] Taking everything in consideration the top 3 are BYU, UC, UH. The next 5 are UCONN, UCF, CSU, Memphis & Tulane. [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV'][B]Christopher Lambert[/B] ‏@theDudeofWV [/URL] [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/762837484673699840']34m34 minutes ago[/URL] That's just the starting point. Now you have to build a consensus. [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV'][B]Christopher Lambert[/B] ‏@theDudeofWV [/URL] [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/762837649920888833']34m34 minutes ago[/URL] UT, OU & ESPN/Fox have more influence than the rest but every vote is important when any 3 votes black balls a school. [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV'][B]Christopher Lambert[/B] ‏@theDudeofWV [/URL] [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/762837861062184961']33m33 minutes ago[/URL] So now let's look at the motivations for each of the influence peddlers. [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV'][B]Christopher Lambert[/B] ‏@theDudeofWV [/URL] [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/762838066297839617']32m32 minutes ago[/URL] Texas has enough votes pledged to kill expansion completely. They can make sure that any candidate has 3 no votes. [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV'][B]Christopher Lambert[/B] ‏@theDudeofWV [/URL] [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/762838303326416896']32m32 minutes ago[/URL] So UH is assured a spot if the Big 12 expands at all. I know UH doesn't currently have 8 votes. I said that last week. They will. [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV'][B]Christopher Lambert[/B] ‏@theDudeofWV [/URL] [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/762838662753026051']31m31 minutes ago[/URL] What does OU want from expansion. The money is the same. So what motivates OU. The 15% increase in playoff odds from 12/2 & $ from 14. [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV'][B]Christopher Lambert[/B] ‏@theDudeofWV [/URL] [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/762838898527481856']30m30 minutes ago[/URL] OU wants the best programs available. That's BYU & UH right now. But OH doesn't want to elevate UH for the same reasons WVU doesn't want UC [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV'][B]Christopher Lambert[/B] ‏@theDudeofWV [/URL] [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/762839096020434946']29m29 minutes ago[/URL] So OU's top choices are BYU & UC - in that order. [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV'][B]Christopher Lambert[/B] ‏@theDudeofWV [/URL] [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/762839244259721217']29m29 minutes ago[/URL] Texas wants BYU & UH. [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV'][B]Christopher Lambert[/B] ‏@theDudeofWV [/URL] [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/762839541669519360']28m28 minutes ago[/URL] The networks want the hottest programs with the best TV ratings. If the B12 must expand then BYU is their #1 choice. UH has better # than UC [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV'][B]Christopher Lambert[/B] ‏@theDudeofWV [/URL] [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/762839915138682881']26m26 minutes ago[/URL] Obviously some combo of BYU, UH & UC are locks for 11 & 12 or 11-13 if they hit 14. [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV'][B]hristopher Lambert[/B] ‏@theDudeofWV [/URL] [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/762840085796532225']26m26 minutes ago[/URL] The wildcard is the issues BYU is having with the Baylor butterfly effect. [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV'][B]Christopher Lambert[/B] ‏@theDudeofWV [/URL] [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/762840379804618753']25m25 minutes ago[/URL] I'm going to say if BYU isn't part of expansion there is no feasible way the B12 could expand to 14 without ESPN/Fox revolting. [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV'][B]Christopher Lambert[/B] ‏@theDudeofWV [/URL] [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/762840791752466434']23m23 minutes ago[/URL] With BYU, UH & UC the Big 12 likely okay expanding to 14 with ESPN/Fox after the details are worked out. Who 14 is really doesn't matter. [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV'][B]Christopher Lambert[/B] ‏@theDudeofWV [/URL] [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/762841032874614787']23m23 minutes ago[/URL] Either UCONN or UCF are safe bets at 14. But because of WVU I say it's UC or UCF not both. [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV'][B]Christopher Lambert[/B] ‏@theDudeofWV [/URL] [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/762841112675426305']23m23 minutes ago[/URL] But my gut says that CSU would be 14. Why? [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV'][B]Christopher Lambert[/B] ‏@theDudeofWV [/URL] [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/762841446944604162']21m21 minutes ago[/URL] Neither UCONN, UCF or Memphis are ever going to dominate their home markets in football. [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV'][B]Christopher Lambert[/B] ‏@theDudeofWV [/URL] [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/762841804353830912']20m20 minutes ago[/URL] But CSU has a chance to be the CFB leader in Co/Denver. CSU doesn't have any real warts. They have the highest ceiling of any candidate. [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV'][B]Christopher Lambert[/B] ‏@theDudeofWV [/URL] [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/762842242662883329']19m19 minutes ago[/URL] So look at the motivations for each current B12 school & ask why do they support expansion? How do they benefit? [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV'][B]Christopher Lambert[/B] ‏@theDudeofWV [/URL] [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/762842402713243648']18m18 minutes ago[/URL] Are there any issues that would make them support one candidate over another? [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV'][B]Christopher Lambert[/B] ‏@theDudeofWV [/URL] [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/762842645961977856']18m18 minutes ago[/URL] I know this too. WVU is far more respected in the B12 than the average fan wants to believe. [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV'][B]Christopher Lambert[/B] ‏@theDudeofWV [/URL] [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/762842919678058496']17m17 minutes ago[/URL] WVU's Oliver Luck was the 1st B12 rep on the playoff committee & Dr. Gee was on the expansion committee. Gee has considerable clout. [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV'][B]Christopher Lambert[/B] ‏@theDudeofWV [/URL] [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/762843376697774082']15m15 minutes ago[/URL] So when everything is said & done I think the B12 adds only BYU & UH. Or if they go to 14 it's BYU, UH, UCONN & CSU. [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV'][B]Christopher Lambert[/B] ‏@theDudeofWV [/URL] [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/762843744307601413']14m14 minutes ago[/URL] Yes I think WVU will find a way to block UC. That's the only reason UC wouldn't make it. [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV'][B]Christopher Lambert[/B] ‏@theDudeofWV [/URL] [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/762843994686525441']13m13 minutes ago[/URL] But, despite my prediction, if the B12 adds 4 I don't see any realistic way UC isn't in the top 3 despite WVU's protests. [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV'][B]Christopher Lambert[/B] ‏@theDudeofWV [/URL] [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/762844458392047616']11m11 minutes ago[/URL] If the B12 goes to 14 they likely tell WVU if OU can accept UH then you have to accept UC so shut up & be happy counting your money. [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV'][B]Christopher Lambert[/B] ‏@theDudeofWV [/URL] [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/762844961695944705']10m10 minutes ago[/URL] Expansion is very simple on one level but it has a ton of complex factors that come into play none more important than self interest. [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV'][B]Christopher Lambert[/B] ‏@theDudeofWV [/URL] [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/762845276608397313']10m10 minutes ago[/URL] The SEC & B1G are unified & usually make decisions in the best interest of the conference as a whole. [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV'][B]Christopher Lambert[/B] ‏@theDudeofWV [/URL] [URL='https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/762845551394029569']8m8 minutes ago[/URL] The Big 12 is different. Schools pursue their own agendas first & if the rest of the conf benefits that's just to bad. [/QUOTE]

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