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Message: [QUOTE="pj, post: 1300654, member: 2524"] I'll spell it out for the Dude: 1. By B1G metrics, UConn is virtually identical to Kansas (national basketball brand, weak football, state populations similar, academics identical [ignore AAU, Kansas is a legacy AAU member and UConn is equal to Kansas research-wise], contiguity similar) except that Connecticut borders NYC and Boston which are open to capture, if not by UConn specifically, by UConn/Rutgers/Penn State/Ohio State/Michigan jointly. The proximity and penetration to population, money, power, and research (Harvard/MIT/Yale) that UConn brings pushes its value ahead of Kansas. Comfortably. 2. By B1G metrics, UConn is comparable to Oklahoma. UConn's proximity to NYC/Boston/Harvard/MIT/Yale is compensated by the greater value of a football brand over a basketball brand. 3. UConn will maintain the average per-school payout in the B1G thanks to overpricing of BTN in Connecticut (more than $0.90 is attainable) and increased pricing in New York/Mass, plus the national value of the basketball brands. UConn football has the potential to grow. He is just wrong about revenue. UConn would be a middle-of-the-pack financial contributor to the B1G on the same order as Indiana, Maryland, and Minnesota. 4. AAU is a barrier but UConn is rising, is already comparable to other targets like Kansas and Oklahoma on AAU metrics, and proximity to Harvard/Yale/MIT may create synergies. Jackson partnership and state support are helpful. This is a strategic question - will B1G sacrifice every other strategic goal to AAU? Unlikely. 5. Of the remaining potential adds, the rank order of value by B1G metrics is: (1) Texas (but a lot of baggage here, eg LHN and past behavior driving schools out of B12), (2) UNC, (3) (a) UVa or (b) Va Tech, (4a) Oklahoma, (4b) UConn, (4c) Kentucky, (7) Kansas, (8) Missouri, (9) Duke, (10) Vanderbilt. Not sure where Ga Tech would fit, it depends on value of academics relative to athletics and contiguity, but certainly ahead of Duke and Vanderbilt. 6. Of these, who is going to be available? UConn is available, no others are certainly available. If you had to pick one school not now in the B1G as most likely to be in the B1G by 2023, it would be UConn. The others all have legal/financial/tradition/cultural barriers to joining. UConn is a fit. If they wait till 2025 to expand, and only want to go to 16, maybe they can pick up UNC and UVa, or Texas and Oklahoma (its geographic position as a bridge to Texas pushes Oklahoma ahead of UConn). In any other scenario, I think UConn is part of the next round of expansion. [/QUOTE]

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