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Message: [QUOTE="pj, post: 1264176, member: 2524"] The Lambert post ([URL]http://mountaineerfanboy.prophpbb.com/topic100.html[/URL]) and followups spin an improbable story from a number of perspectives: - The claimed solidity of the B12 depends on the solidity of the GoR and this is a temporary contract with an expiration. If realignment is coming at the expiration of current B12 and ACC deals, then the B12 is not solid. - His source says the B1G [B]will [/B]approach UVa and GT prior to renegotiating its rights deal next year (2016). Given the complex nature of these discussions, they will not be left to the last minute. If the B1G hasn't already approached a school, it's not under consideration for a 2016 add. - ESPN needs content for ESPN, ESPN2, and ESPNU. If they don't get Tier1 content from the B1G, they will sorely need ACC content to keep their main networks populated. They won't be able to move ACC content to an ACCN. Whereas if they get the B1G Tier1 deal, then maybe they have enough inventory to populate an ACCN in addition to their existing channels. So a B1G deal is probably necessary to enable an ACCN. Yet Lambert states the opposite -- if ESPN gets B1G content they will refuse an ACCN, while if they lose the B1G they will form an ACCN. - He says if the ACC gets a network then realignment is over. But an ACCN would not significantly change the relative standing of the conferences or the money flows. It would not impact academic/research criteria. There are lots of reasons realignment may continue even if the ACC gets a network. Perhaps an ACCN strengthens their GoR ... but that may not be decisive, and in any case the GoR has expirations. - He claims UVa and GT are the targets. Va Tech and UConn are more attractive than Ga Tech, in terms of markets, money, and contiguity. Ga Tech would be on an island in the B1G. - "Without UVA & GT the B1G likely doesn't have enough revenue differential to convince UVA to leave - ACCN or not." Claim is B1G won't make enough money without UVa to pay UVa significantly more than the ACC. Contrary to everything we've heard. GT is dilutive to the B1G. - He lists Va Tech as #2 least willing to leave the ACC -- totally contrary to other things we've heard. UVa and GT are #1 and #3 least willing to leave, yet those are the ones he claims are in play. He lists UNC and NC State among the most willing to leave, yet UNC is considered the bulwark of the ACC. He says NC State's motive to leave is to be "Anywhere UNC isn't" and UNC's motive is to have "More money than NCST." Yet UNC and NC State have a common board of governance, dominated by UNC grads. It's doubtful all or even a significant number of NC decision-makers desire to split NC State and UNC into two separate conferences for reasons of petty animosity. [/QUOTE]

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