No-chalk, big east predictions

[Jaydumo20]

A few weeks ago @auror posted a thread about the unpredictability of the big east, based on the first conference games.

After the Seton Hall "upsets" there has been speculation about whether these are fools gold wins. Most expect the big 3 (us, Creighton and marquette) to come out on top but there is room for more adventurous prognostication.

Who predicts something for a big east team that deviates from safe, preseason chalk?

• is there a different top 3 come March?
• can big east put 7 or 8 teams in the tourney?
• who finishes 4th and 5th in BE?
• what happens to Providence without Hopkins?
• where does Pitino have st johns at year end?
• Can Butler string together enough wins to make the tourney?
• Does Uconn not finish top 3 BE?

 

[shizzle787]

Butler getting in the tourney is my pick.

 

[Jaydumo20]

I feel that st John's will finish top 3 BE and finish year ranked

 

[auror]

Butler getting in the tourney is my pick.

With Seton Hall climbing, there's a lot of Q1 games to go around in the Big East this season. Think we'll end up getting 6 bids for the conference despite a mediocre non-con, assuming teams like Providence and Xavier hold on to being okay and stay top 75 NET.

 

[McLovin]

I think by the end of the year, a case could be made for 6 teams to make the tournament with 3 teams being locks: UConn, Marquette and Creighton and 3 teams being on the bubble: St. John’s, Seton Hall and PC

I wonder if the OOC wins are strong enough for any of the bubble teams to make the cut and will see how the committee values Q1 wins each of those teams have in conference…

My prediction is the Big East gets snubbed and ends up with only 4 teams in, after all the preseason hype of how “deep” the league would be this year.

 

[superjohn]

I think by the end of the year, a case could be made for 6 teams to make the tournament with 3 teams being locks: UConn, Marquette and Creighton and 3 teams being on the bubble: St. John’s, Seton Hall and PC

I wonder if the OOC wins are strong enough for any of the bubble teams to make the cut and will see how the committee values Q1 wins each of those teams have in conference…

My prediction is the Big East gets snubbed and ends up with only 4 teams in, after all the preseason hype of how “deep” the league would be this year.

I don't think there's any way the Big East only gets 4 teams. Nova will be a bubble team.

 

[Letsgohuskies11]

I think by the end of the year, a case could be made for 6 teams to make the tournament with 3 teams being locks: UConn, Marquette and Creighton and 3 teams being on the bubble: St. John’s, Seton Hall and PC

I wonder if the OOC wins are strong enough for any of the bubble teams to make the cut and will see how the committee values Q1 wins each of those teams have in conference…

My prediction is the Big East gets snubbed and ends up with only 4 teams in, after all the preseason hype of how “deep” the league would be this year.

I mean injuries have killed teams. Xavier and Providence would be probably tournament locks ( at least Xavier).

 

[shizzle787]

Any BE team with 20 wins on Selection Sunday will get in. Several will get in with 19, and a few could get in with 18.

 

[Get a Job]

I hate to say it because doomed and all, but I feel better about UConn's chances to win the league now than I did before conference play started.

 

[How Sway?!]

With Seton Hall climbing, there's a lot of Q1 games to go around in the Big East this season. Think we'll end up getting 6 bids for the conference despite a mediocre non-con, assuming teams like Providence and Xavier hold on to being okay and stay top 75 NET.

NET currently has BYU 4th, I wouldn't put too much stock on it just yet.

 

[gtcam]

The healthiest team will win the conference (except DePaul or Gtown)

 

[Fan1978]

NET currently has BYU 4th, I wouldn't put too much stock on it just yet.

Exactly, i looked at byu body of work. How they are ranked is beyond me.

 

[BEFAN]

My first post after several weeks of lurking. I'm a Creighton fan, but also a big fan of Big East basketball. I'm that guy who will stay up late on a Tuesday night to watch Depaul play Georgetown. I enjoy reading your board because, first and foremost, it is far and away the most active board of all the BE boards. Secondly, while the emphasis is on UConn basketball (as it should be), there are a fair number of discussion on general BE basketball (such as this one). For good or bad, your board has sort of replaced HoH (for me, and I suspect for a host of others) as the best place to read interesting discussion of BE play.

My take on this topic: Seton Hall and Butler have been the biggest surprises, with St. Johns right behind them. All 3 could make the tourney. Apart from Gtown and Depaul, every game, home or away, will be a battle (or at least has the potential to be). I have concerns about my own team. The turnovers, the blown second-half leads (14 to Villy and 18 to Providence, both at home) and inconsistent shooting from just about everyone doesn't give me a lot of confidence that we can pull out enough grinders to win the conference, or even be runner up. Funny thing is, the defense seems to be the only thing we can rely on from game-to-game. There's still time, of course, to figure a few things out, but right now I see a 3rd-5th place finish.

Marquette has had their troubles too. It seems that if they don't get a boat load of turnovers, they struggle offensively. Kolek has been just average at times this year, as opposed to out-of-this-world. I do think they will take care of business at home, but life on the road could be rocky for them (as it has been so far). I think they are still the best bet for 2nd place.

I think UConn has the inside lane for the conference crown at this juncture. No home losses, and one toughie on the road. That Butler win really impressed me. Butler was playing out of their minds, especially in the first half, and it had "upset" written all over it. But a number of UConn players made big shots down the stretch (thinking of the Castle and Spencer 3s in particular). Newton has been your leader, but Spencer has really impressed with his play all season: cool and level-headed, and can provide big buckets when needed. He is what I had hoped Ashworth would be for Creighton. Karaban, while sometimes inconsistent with his shooting this year, consistently provides those "hustle" plays, like a key tip-in or offensive board that breaks the spirit of a team. Johnson has been steady filling in for Clingan. Frankly, I don't think you miss Clingan all the much, except that it gives you added depth at the 5. I see UConn losing maybe 3 more games, and winning the league by two.

Good luck the rest of the way....except of course when we need to you lose.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

With Seton Hall climbing, there's a lot of Q1 games to go around in the Big East this season. Think we'll end up getting 6 bids for the conference despite a mediocre non-con, assuming teams like Providence and Xavier hold on to being okay and stay top 75 NET.

I don't think the non-conference was that mediocre. The Big East is the #2 conference in KenPom, and seems to be pulling away a little as the preseason metrics fade out of KenPom's ratings.

 

[Jaydumo20]

I don't think the non-conference was that mediocre. The Big East is the #2 conference in KenPom, and seems to be pulling away a little as the preseason metrics fade out of KenPom's ratings.

This is an important point: I think we are too attached to preseason assessments. Anything that contradicts our summer crystal ball is written off as a fluke. Sometimes, it takes a monumental run for anyone to buy in to an unexpected event. Take the UCONN fanbase: 1/2 the BY doubted DH until mid-May '23.

 

[Jaydumo20]

My first post after several weeks of lurking. I'm a Creighton fan, but also a big fan of Big East basketball. I'm that guy who will stay up late on a Tuesday night to watch Depaul play Georgetown. I enjoy reading your board because, first and foremost, it is far and away the most active board of all the BE boards. Secondly, while the emphasis is on UConn basketball (as it should be), there are a fair number of discussion on general BE basketball (such as this one). For good or bad, your board has sort of replaced HoH (for me, and I suspect for a host of others) as the best place to read interesting discussion of BE play.

My take on this topic: Seton Hall and Butler have been the biggest surprises, with St. Johns right behind them. All 3 could make the tourney. Apart from Gtown and Depaul, every game, home or away, will be a battle (or at least has the potential to be). I have concerns about my own team. The turnovers, the blown second-half leads (14 to Villy and 18 to Providence, both at home) and inconsistent shooting from just about everyone doesn't give me a lot of confidence that we can pull out enough grinders to win the conference, or even be runner up. Funny thing is, the defense seems to be the only thing we can rely on from game-to-game. There's still time, of course, to figure a few things out, but right now I see a 3rd-5th place finish.

Marquette has had their troubles too. It seems that if they don't get a boat load of turnovers, they struggle offensively. Kolek has been just average at times this year, as opposed to out-of-this-world. I do think they will take care of business at home, but life on the road could be rocky for them (as it has been so far). I think they are still the best bet for 2nd place.

I think UConn has the inside lane for the conference crown at this juncture. No home losses, and one toughie on the road. That Butler win really impressed me. Butler was playing out of their minds, especially in the first half, and it had "upset" written all over it. But a number of UConn players made big shots down the stretch (thinking of the Castle and Spencer 3s in particular). Newton has been your leader, but Spencer has really impressed with his play all season: cool and level-headed, and can provide big buckets when needed. He is what I had hoped Ashworth would be for Creighton. Karaban, while sometimes inconsistent with his shooting this year, consistently provides those "hustle" plays, like a key tip-in or offensive board that breaks the spirit of a team. Johnson has been steady filling in for Clingan. Frankly, I don't think you miss Clingan all the much, except that it gives you added depth at the 5. I see UConn losing maybe 3 more games, and winning the league by two.

Good luck the rest of the way....except of course when we need to you lose.

Respect. This is a very unbiased reading of the current BE landscape. I still think the league is gonna come down to the top 3 but I wouldn't be shocked if st johns or Seton hall won the BE tourney.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Nelson's revised projections:

1) UConn (15-5 projected BE Record) - I think we are the favorites to win it, but UConn is not exactly drilling teams when it wins. The Huskies are going to get picked off a few times.

2) Creighton (15-5) - They are 2-2 already, but already played at Marquette and have played Nova once. This teams scares me most head-to-head against UConn.

3) Marquette (14-6) - They pass the eye test because they look good when they are playing well, but they are just losing games that a top team should win. The @Providence loss won't age well, and is why I have them a step below UConn and Creighton. UConn and Creighton will probably sweep Providence.

4) St. Johns (13-7) - Expected them to be good, but not this good. The team looks a little out-of-control at times on offense, but Pitino will rein it in just enough over the next few weeks until they are creating chaos without being chaotic themselves. Soriano is the closest they have to a real star to carry them in a close heavyweight matchup, which is why I don't think they are a threat to really challenge the top teams. This offense isn't designed for a center to take over in the last minutes of a close game.

5) Villanova (12-8) - I do not like being on this bandwagon, at all. This is a talented team that always looks like they are going to blow it.

6) Butler (10-10) - My opinion about Butler has not changed since I saw them play FAU. This team plays smart offensively and can generate high percentage shots, and is slow and can't defend. Matta is using some gimmicks to try to hide just how bad defensively this team is, but they are bad on D. I want to predict Butler to win 11, but they have already lost to PC, so it is hard to find 11 wins.

7) Seton Hall (10-10) - I love the way SHU plays defense, and I think Holloway is doing a great job, but SHU can't shoot. After Davis and Dawes, you don't even need to really defend the outside shooters. Just soft close out on them, then funnel their drives into help, and force them into contested pullups or layups. There are some smart coaches in the league that are going to adjust to this, and SHU is in trouble when they do.

8) Xavier (8-12) - This team might have been pretty good with Freemantle and Hunter, but they are gone, and there is no way to recover from that. They play good D, which gives them a shot to pull an upset here and there, but an NIT bid is probably out of reach.

9) Providence (7-13) - Hopkins ACL was a crushing loss. Gaines and Floyd are decent players, so the starting lineup isn't terrible, but there is no "go to" player with 5 seconds left on the shot clock. Carter may think he is that player, but he isn't. I think they have a lot of competitive, 8 to 15 point losses in their future.

Gap

10) Georgetown (4-16) - There is more downside than upside on this 4 Big East wins prediction.

11) Depaul (2-18) - This team is terrible. Bad offense and bad defense. Just bad.

 

[mauconnfan]

My first post after several weeks of lurking. I'm a Creighton fan, but also a big fan of Big East basketball. I'm that guy who will stay up late on a Tuesday night to watch Depaul play Georgetown. I enjoy reading your board because, first and foremost, it is far and away the most active board of all the BE boards. Secondly, while the emphasis is on UConn basketball (as it should be), there are a fair number of discussion on general BE basketball (such as this one). For good or bad, your board has sort of replaced HoH (for me, and I suspect for a host of others) as the best place to read interesting discussion of BE play.

My take on this topic: Seton Hall and Butler have been the biggest surprises, with St. Johns right behind them. All 3 could make the tourney. Apart from Gtown and Depaul, every game, home or away, will be a battle (or at least has the potential to be). I have concerns about my own team. The turnovers, the blown second-half leads (14 to Villy and 18 to Providence, both at home) and inconsistent shooting from just about everyone doesn't give me a lot of confidence that we can pull out enough grinders to win the conference, or even be runner up. Funny thing is, the defense seems to be the only thing we can rely on from game-to-game. There's still time, of course, to figure a few things out, but right now I see a 3rd-5th place finish.

Marquette has had their troubles too. It seems that if they don't get a boat load of turnovers, they struggle offensively. Kolek has been just average at times this year, as opposed to out-of-this-world. I do think they will take care of business at home, but life on the road could be rocky for them (as it has been so far). I think they are still the best bet for 2nd place.

I think UConn has the inside lane for the conference crown at this juncture. No home losses, and one toughie on the road. That Butler win really impressed me. Butler was playing out of their minds, especially in the first half, and it had "upset" written all over it. But a number of UConn players made big shots down the stretch (thinking of the Castle and Spencer 3s in particular). Newton has been your leader, but Spencer has really impressed with his play all season: cool and level-headed, and can provide big buckets when needed. He is what I had hoped Ashworth would be for Creighton. Karaban, while sometimes inconsistent with his shooting this year, consistently provides those "hustle" plays, like a key tip-in or offensive board that breaks the spirit of a team. Johnson has been steady filling in for Clingan. Frankly, I don't think you miss Clingan all the much, except that it gives you added depth at the 5. I see UConn losing maybe 3 more games, and winning the league by two.

Good luck the rest of the way....except of course when we need to you lose.

Welcome to the Yard this was a very good first post. We hardly have our own fans with 1st posts this well though out. Agree wholeheartedly in regards to all but DePaul/Gtown you just need to be sure to tie them up and leave it all on the floor.

I will disagree on your we don’t miss Clingan all that much. Well for now we don’t, but if we want to seriously contend for the BE title and then maybe more, he needs to be healthy. He’s a difference maker on the defensive end as well as the boards. Need him back healthy at some point for sure.

Best of luck to your guys except, well you know!

 

[my2cents]

My first post after several weeks of lurking. I'm a Creighton fan, but also a big fan of Big East basketball. I'm that guy who will stay up late on a Tuesday night to watch Depaul play Georgetown. I enjoy reading your board because, first and foremost, it is far and away the most active board of all the BE boards. Secondly, while the emphasis is on UConn basketball (as it should be), there are a fair number of discussion on general BE basketball (such as this one). For good or bad, your board has sort of replaced HoH (for me, and I suspect for a host of others) as the best place to read interesting discussion of BE play.

My take on this topic: Seton Hall and Butler have been the biggest surprises, with St. Johns right behind them. All 3 could make the tourney. Apart from Gtown and Depaul, every game, home or away, will be a battle (or at least has the potential to be). I have concerns about my own team. The turnovers, the blown second-half leads (14 to Villy and 18 to Providence, both at home) and inconsistent shooting from just about everyone doesn't give me a lot of confidence that we can pull out enough grinders to win the conference, or even be runner up. Funny thing is, the defense seems to be the only thing we can rely on from game-to-game. There's still time, of course, to figure a few things out, but right now I see a 3rd-5th place finish.

Marquette has had their troubles too. It seems that if they don't get a boat load of turnovers, they struggle offensively. Kolek has been just average at times this year, as opposed to out-of-this-world. I do think they will take care of business at home, but life on the road could be rocky for them (as it has been so far). I think they are still the best bet for 2nd place.

I think UConn has the inside lane for the conference crown at this juncture. No home losses, and one toughie on the road. That Butler win really impressed me. Butler was playing out of their minds, especially in the first half, and it had "upset" written all over it. But a number of UConn players made big shots down the stretch (thinking of the Castle and Spencer 3s in particular). Newton has been your leader, but Spencer has really impressed with his play all season: cool and level-headed, and can provide big buckets when needed. He is what I had hoped Ashworth would be for Creighton. Karaban, while sometimes inconsistent with his shooting this year, consistently provides those "hustle" plays, like a key tip-in or offensive board that breaks the spirit of a team. Johnson has been steady filling in for Clingan. Frankly, I don't think you miss Clingan all the much, except that it gives you added depth at the 5. I see UConn losing maybe 3 more games, and winning the league by two.

Good luck the rest of the way....except of course when we need to you lose.

Great post, regardless of who we root for, we are all Americans first and foremost.

 

[Letsgohuskies11]

Great post, regardless of who we root for, we are all Americans first and foremost.

I prefer the big east

 

[shizzle787]

Nelson's revised projections:

1) UConn (15-5 projected BE Record) - I think we are the favorites to win it, but UConn is not exactly drilling teams when it wins. The Huskies are going to get picked off a few times.

2) Creighton (15-5) - They are 2-2 already, but already played at Marquette and have played Nova once. This teams scares me most head-to-head against UConn.

3) Marquette (14-6) - They pass the eye test because they look good when they are playing well, but they are just losing games that a top team should win. The @Providence loss won't age well, and is why I have them a step below UConn and Creighton. UConn and Creighton will probably sweep Providence.

4) St. Johns (13-7) - Expected them to be good, but not this good. The team looks a little out-of-control at times on offense, but Pitino will rein it in just enough over the next few weeks until they are creating chaos without being chaotic themselves. Soriano is the closest they have to a real star to carry them in a close heavyweight matchup, which is why I don't think they are a threat to really challenge the top teams. This offense isn't designed for a center to take over in the last minutes of a close game.

5) Villanova (12-8) - I do not like being on this bandwagon, at all. This is a talented team that always looks like they are going to blow it.

6) Butler (10-10) - My opinion about Butler has not changed since I saw them play FAU. This team plays smart offensively and can generate high percentage shots, and is slow and can't defend. Matta is using some gimmicks to try to hide just how bad defensively this team is, but they are bad on D. I want to predict Butler to win 11, but they have already lost to PC, so it is hard to find 11 wins.

7) Seton Hall (10-10) - I love the way SHU plays defense, and I think Holloway is doing a great job, but SHU can't shoot. After Davis and Dawes, you don't even need to really defend the outside shooters. Just soft close out on them, then funnel their drives into help, and force them into contested pullups or layups. There are some smart coaches in the league that are going to adjust to this, and SHU is in trouble when they do.

8) Xavier (8-12) - This team might have been pretty good with Freemantle and Hunter, but they are gone, and there is no way to recover from that. They play good D, which gives them a shot to pull an upset here and there, but an NIT bid is probably out of reach.

9) Providence (7-13) - Hopkins ACL was a crushing loss. Gaines and Floyd are decent players, so the starting lineup isn't terrible, but there is no "go to" player with 5 seconds left on the shot clock. Carter may think he is that player, but he isn't. I think they have a lot of competitive, 8 to 15 point losses in their future.

Gap

10) Georgetown (4-16) - There is more downside than upside on this 4 Big East wins prediction.

11) Depaul (2-18) - This team is terrible. Bad offense and bad defense. Just bad.

Honestly, DePaul may go 0-20. They are that bad.

 

[caw]

Nelson's revised projections:

1) UConn (15-5 projected BE Record) - I think we are the favorites to win it, but UConn is not exactly drilling teams when it wins. The Huskies are going to get picked off a few times.

2) Creighton (15-5) - They are 2-2 already, but already played at Marquette and have played Nova once. This teams scares me most head-to-head against UConn.

3) Marquette (14-6) - They pass the eye test because they look good when they are playing well, but they are just losing games that a top team should win. The @Providence loss won't age well, and is why I have them a step below UConn and Creighton. UConn and Creighton will probably sweep Providence.

4) St. Johns (13-7) - Expected them to be good, but not this good. The team looks a little out-of-control at times on offense, but Pitino will rein it in just enough over the next few weeks until they are creating chaos without being chaotic themselves. Soriano is the closest they have to a real star to carry them in a close heavyweight matchup, which is why I don't think they are a threat to really challenge the top teams. This offense isn't designed for a center to take over in the last minutes of a close game.

5) Villanova (12-8) - I do not like being on this bandwagon, at all. This is a talented team that always looks like they are going to blow it.

6) Butler (10-10) - My opinion about Butler has not changed since I saw them play FAU. This team plays smart offensively and can generate high percentage shots, and is slow and can't defend. Matta is using some gimmicks to try to hide just how bad defensively this team is, but they are bad on D. I want to predict Butler to win 11, but they have already lost to PC, so it is hard to find 11 wins.

7) Seton Hall (10-10) - I love the way SHU plays defense, and I think Holloway is doing a great job, but SHU can't shoot. After Davis and Dawes, you don't even need to really defend the outside shooters. Just soft close out on them, then funnel their drives into help, and force them into contested pullups or layups. There are some smart coaches in the league that are going to adjust to this, and SHU is in trouble when they do.

8) Xavier (8-12) - This team might have been pretty good with Freemantle and Hunter, but they are gone, and there is no way to recover from that. They play good D, which gives them a shot to pull an upset here and there, but an NIT bid is probably out of reach.

9) Providence (7-13) - Hopkins ACL was a crushing loss. Gaines and Floyd are decent players, so the starting lineup isn't terrible, but there is no "go to" player with 5 seconds left on the shot clock. Carter may think he is that player, but he isn't. I think they have a lot of competitive, 8 to 15 point losses in their future.

Gap

10) Georgetown (4-16) - There is more downside than upside on this 4 Big East wins prediction.

11) Depaul (2-18) - This team is terrible. Bad offense and bad defense. Just bad.

SHUs game on the 21 vs Creighton will be interesting because we know McDermott will scheme something the rest of the league will try and copy (like against Jackson). The question is whether Creighton is physical enough to succeed at that scheme. Really though I think SHU will struggle against SJU/Creighton and UConn the most in league if those teams are healthy because they have the best centers (Oso is great but he’s like Samson a taller PF playing C).

SHU has gotten pretty lucky so far with Clingan/Hopkins and Ross all going down during their games giving their opponents zero time to adjust but they were in or leading those games at that time so they aren’t bad.

 

[Stinger92860]

I hate to say it because doomed and all, but I feel better about UConn's chances to win the league now than I did before conference play started.

Please delete this post and restore the karma.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

SHUs game on the 21 vs Creighton will be interesting because we know McDermott will scheme something the rest of the league will try and copy (like against Jackson). The question is whether Creighton is physical enough to succeed at that scheme. Really though I think SHU will struggle against SJU/Creighton and UConn the most in league if those teams are healthy because they have the best centers (Oso is great but he’s like Samson a taller PF playing C).

SHU has gotten pretty lucky so far with Clingan/Hopkins and Ross all going down during their games giving their opponents zero time to adjust but they were in or leading those games at that time so they aren’t bad.

If I was Holloway, I would be more worried about the 1/13 game in Indianapolis followed by the 1/16 game at home against St. Johns. SHU's shooting is a huge problem, and Holloway's defense is not as good as it was last year, especially on the perimeter.

Matta is practically switching coverages possession to possession to hide how bad his defense is, but his defense won't kill him against Seton Hall because the Pirates can't shoot. Matta is going to come up with a few gimmicks to mix up defensive looks, which is all you need when SHU's entire backcourt is basically 4 slightly different versions of the same player. On the other end, Butler just posted 81 points on the defending National Champions, imagine what he can do against a team that doesn't have much rim protection. This is going to be a tough matchup for Holloway, in Indianapolis.

St. Johns is playing well on both ends of the court right now, and matches up well with SHU. SHU is going to try to attack the rim against SJU's aggressive defense, but Soriano is a good rim protector. Seton Hall gets them at home and SJU is still a work in process, but I don't like this game for the Hall either.

 

[The Yakk]

Nelson's revised projections:

1) UConn (15-5 projected BE Record) - I think we are the favorites to win it, but UConn is not exactly drilling teams when it wins. The Huskies are going to get picked off a few times.

2) Creighton (15-5) - They are 2-2 already, but already played at Marquette and have played Nova once. This teams scares me most head-to-head against UConn.

3) Marquette (14-6) - They pass the eye test because they look good when they are playing well, but they are just losing games that a top team should win. The @Providence loss won't age well, and is why I have them a step below UConn and Creighton. UConn and Creighton will probably sweep Providence.

4) St. Johns (13-7) - Expected them to be good, but not this good. The team looks a little out-of-control at times on offense, but Pitino will rein it in just enough over the next few weeks until they are creating chaos without being chaotic themselves. Soriano is the closest they have to a real star to carry them in a close heavyweight matchup, which is why I don't think they are a threat to really challenge the top teams. This offense isn't designed for a center to take over in the last minutes of a close game.

5) Villanova (12-8) - I do not like being on this bandwagon, at all. This is a talented team that always looks like they are going to blow it.

6) Butler (10-10) - My opinion about Butler has not changed since I saw them play FAU. This team plays smart offensively and can generate high percentage shots, and is slow and can't defend. Matta is using some gimmicks to try to hide just how bad defensively this team is, but they are bad on D. I want to predict Butler to win 11, but they have already lost to PC, so it is hard to find 11 wins.

7) Seton Hall (10-10) - I love the way SHU plays defense, and I think Holloway is doing a great job, but SHU can't shoot. After Davis and Dawes, you don't even need to really defend the outside shooters. Just soft close out on them, then funnel their drives into help, and force them into contested pullups or layups. There are some smart coaches in the league that are going to adjust to this, and SHU is in trouble when they do.

8) Xavier (8-12) - This team might have been pretty good with Freemantle and Hunter, but they are gone, and there is no way to recover from that. They play good D, which gives them a shot to pull an upset here and there, but an NIT bid is probably out of reach.

9) Providence (7-13) - Hopkins ACL was a crushing loss. Gaines and Floyd are decent players, so the starting lineup isn't terrible, but there is no "go to" player with 5 seconds left on the shot clock. Carter may think he is that player, but he isn't. I think they have a lot of competitive, 8 to 15 point losses in their future.

Gap

10) Georgetown (4-16) - There is more downside than upside on this 4 Big East wins prediction.

11) Depaul (2-18) - This team is terrible. Bad offense and bad defense. Just bad.

I like your analysis and mostly agree it, but you have the conference as a whole at 4 games over 0.500.

Was this a test to see who was paying attention?