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Message: [QUOTE="oldhusky, post: 4373416, member: 9844"] Regardless of where people are on who starts at PG, you are correct that we will need 20 minutes or so from Nika, and from Lou for that matter. We know Azzi and Caroline will get big minutes, probably well over 30. Nika and Lou will be 3rd and 4th in minutes in some order, but even #4 will get close to 20 minutes out of necessity with only 4. As for Aubrey, Ayanna and a potential 11th hour guard addition, somebody from that group will likely have to be a guard or a 3 for at least 5-6 minutes a game even if we are healthy. It is exceptionally hard to manage a 4 player rotation for 3 positions. You probably make your first substitution earlier than normal, because the first player sitting has to be rested to come back in before you can rest the second starter, who has to be rested before you can give the third starter a blow, long after you normally would have taken them out. Usually minimal use of a 5th player is necessary to help modify those irregularities, more like a 4.5 player rotation, in this case whether they are guards or not. But throw just one missed game from any of the main four guards into the mix, and all the remaining guards whoever they are, have to start and play major minutes. The player that was getting minimal use from the Aubrey, Ayanna or a foreign guard, now becomes the primary backup to all three guards getting 20 minutes a game, and the marginal use role for 5-6 minutes a game now falls to the second choice from Aubrey or Ayanna, or the foreign guard to be named later if she ever arrives. The scenario obviously gets really ugly if two guards were injured at the same time, when Aubrey or Ayanna becomes a heavy minutes starter at guard, and the other presumably becomes a 20 minutes a game backup guard, and someone not yet mentioned would need to pick up another 5-6. Maybe that sounds exceptionally pessimistic or unlikely, but remember last year we had three guards out at the same time for three very difficult games. I think many of our fans say we had 11 great players and now we have 10, we will be fine. If healthy they are probably right. Injuries to our bigs we can adjust for much easier, we are a solid 4 deep at PF for example. But at this point any guard missing time is quite costly and two would be devastating. Last year we started with 6 good guards and had several games with three out at the same time and no backups. The odds of that happening again are very very low. This year we started with one less at 5 after adding Lou, a number that is not ideal but has some cushion, but now at 4 we are pretty much at the mercy of good fortune on injuries to our guards, unless Aubrey or Ayanna become pretty good players on the perimeter. Quite possible but I hope that theory doesn't have to be tested. [/QUOTE]

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