Next Games Won't Have Upsets

[Fairfield Fan]

Looking over the Sweet Sixteen games, I don't see many match-ups, save perhaps for Quinnipiac and Louisville, that could really be called a possible "upset." And anyone beating UConn....well, we're not going there.

Ohio State/Notre Dame- ND is minus their star center. Ohio State is ranked 10th nationally. Toss-up.

Stanford/Texas: #6 v #15. And given Texas's up-and-down record, they could be "up" against Stanford.

Mississippi State/Washington- Washington made the Final Four last year, and they have the highest-scoring player in NCAA history. I can't say that a #11 ranked team beating a #7 ranked team would be much of an upset. And Mississippi State has been playing unevenly, especially Vivians. So can't say the gaming going one way or the other would be much of a surprise.

Baylor/Louisville- OK, Louisville's beating Baylor would be a big surprise. That would rank as "upset" material. But Louisville has a first-rate coach, and he's done wonders in the past with good, but not great, talent. And four years ago he took down Britney Griner's Baylor team. So huge surprise if they win? Nah.

Maryland/Oregon- I see Oregon doing this tournament what Breanna Stewart and UConn did Stewie's freshman year: a young team getting better and better, and reaching its best performance during the NCAA's. Maryland is a fine team, though until the NCAA's, it hasn't been challenged strongly or consistently during the season. But no surprise were Oregon to win.

Connecticut/UCLA- The Pac-12 is a surprise as a group. This will be Connecticut's biggest challenge since South Carolina. 'nuff said...

South Carolina/Quinnipiac- Yes, upset if it happens. But South Carolina appears to be missing two starters now: Alaina Coates and Alisha Gray. Sort of beginning to sound like UConn back in 2000 when it lost Abrosimova and Shea Ralph right before the NCAA's, and would up losing to Notre Dame. The loss of two starters has to impact even this team.

Oregon State/Florida State- #8 v #13. A distinction without a difference.

Quinnipiac is Cinderella. But I don't see anyone else who is an eye-popping underdog. Oregon will go into next season as a top-10 team at least. Those three freshman starters plus the one current sophomore aren't going to be surprising anyone anymore.

 

[eebmg]

Oregon beating MD would be considered a big upset by most people. MD is arguably top 5 in the country while oregon is led by freshman and is a properly placed 10 seed.

 

[warbler1055]

I love QU, but not being a big underdog vs SC is delusional. Big upset if Louisville wins. Texas barely survived due to bad calls, if they win, big upset. UCLA vs UConn, if UCLA wins God forbids, if that's not an upset, what is?

 

[Fairfield Fan]

We don't discuss Connecticut in the passive voice with the noun "upset."

 

[Fairfield Fan]

Oregon beating MD would be considered a big upset by most people. MD is arguably top 5 in the country while oregon is led by freshman and is a properly placed 10 seed.

But looking at how well Oregon is playing now, I don't know. And Maryland was beaten by Ohio State before.

I shouldn't have written "won't have upsets" in the title. Just that most of these games are going to be very competitive. Even Quinnipiac versus a depleted South Carolina would be an upset, but SC is going in wounded.

 

[OldAlum]

Interesting: 538 has UConn at a 98% win probability vs UCLA. Baylor is at 93% vs Louisville.

 

[warbler1055]

But looking at how well Oregon is playing now, I don't know. And Maryland was beaten by Ohio State before.

I shouldn't have written "won't have upsets" in the title. Just that most of these games are going to be very competitive. Even Quinnipiac versus a depleted South Carolina would be an upset, but SC is going in wounded.

I would be ecstatic if QU can pull the upset, rooting for the Bobcats here. Pray that the 3s will fall and Q will survive, but I am tempering my enthusiasm.

 

[UcMiami]

SC and ND appear to be walking wounded so anything can happen in their games - neither team likely is a one seed this year if they were playing the regular season with their likely available players. But a wounded 1 seed is still supposed to beat a 12 seed easily.

2-3 games are supposed to be pretty close to toss-ups so not significant upsets should the 3 win, but 3-10 games are supposed to be walk overs, and 1-4 contests are supposed to be competitive but the 1 seed is expected to prevail - these two one seeds are supposed to prevail easily.

 

[warbler1055]

But looking at how well Oregon is playing now, I don't know. And Maryland was beaten by Ohio State before.

I shouldn't have written "won't have upsets" in the title. Just that most of these games are going to be very competitive. Even Quinnipiac versus a depleted South Carolina would be an upset, but SC is going in wounded.

I would be ecstatic if QU can pull the upset, rooting for the Bobcats here. Pray that the 3s will fall and Q will survive, but I am tempering my enthusiasm.

 

[cbraarj]

Dont compare Coates and Gray with Shea and Svet it is not even close!

 

[DefenseBB]

Looking over the Sweet Sixteen games, I don't see many match-ups, save perhaps for Quinnipiac and Louisville, that could really be called a possible "upset." And anyone beating UConn....well, we're not going there.

Baylor/Louisville- OK, Louisville's beating Baylor would be a big surprise. That would rank as "upset" material. But Louisville has a first-rate coach, and he's done wonders in the past with good, but not great, talent. And four years ago he took down Britney Griner's Baylor team. So huge surprise if they win?

Connecticut/UCLA- The Pac-12 is a surprise as a group. This will be Connecticut's biggest challenge since South Carolina. 'nuff said....

I disagree completely! It's "nuff ced"

Minor point that even you said Louisville would be considered an upset at the outset yet backtracked in the detail. Point is this Baylor is actually deeper than that one (save Alexis Jones injury concerns) and Louisville is not as talented nor as big as the team that took down Griner. But your point is understood.

 

[Longtime fan]

Looking over the Sweet Sixteen games, I don't see many match-ups, save perhaps for Quinnipiac and Louisville, that could really be called a possible "upset." And anyone beating UConn....well, we're not going there.

Ohio State/Notre Dame- ND is minus their star center. Ohio State is ranked 10th nationally. Toss-up.

Stanford/Texas: #6 v #15. And given Texas's up-and-down record, they could be "up" against Stanford.

Mississippi State/Washington- Washington made the Final Four last year, and they have the highest-scoring player in NCAA history. I can't say that a #11 ranked team beating a #7 ranked team would be much of an upset. And Mississippi State has been playing unevenly, especially Vivians. So can't say the gaming going one way or the other would be much of a surprise.

Baylor/Louisville- OK, Louisville's beating Baylor would be a big surprise. That would rank as "upset" material. But Louisville has a first-rate coach, and he's done wonders in the past with good, but not great, talent. And four years ago he took down Britney Griner's Baylor team. So huge surprise if they win? Nah.

Maryland/Oregon- I see Oregon doing this tournament what Breanna Stewart and UConn did Stewie's freshman year: a young team getting better and better, and reaching its best performance during the NCAA's. Maryland is a fine team, though until the NCAA's, it hasn't been challenged strongly or consistently during the season. But no surprise were Oregon to win.

Connecticut/UCLA- The Pac-12 is a surprise as a group. This will be Connecticut's biggest challenge since South Carolina. 'nuff said...

South Carolina/Quinnipiac- Yes, upset if it happens. But South Carolina appears to be missing two starters now: Alaina Coates and Alisha Gray. Sort of beginning to sound like UConn back in 2000 when it lost Abrosimova and Shea Ralph right before the NCAA's, and would up losing to Notre Dame. The loss of two starters has to impact even this team.

Oregon State/Florida State- #8 v #13. A distinction without a difference.

Quinnipiac is Cinderella. But I don't see anyone else who is an eye-popping underdog. Oregon will go into next season as a top-10 team at least. Those three freshman starters plus the one current sophomore aren't going to be surprising anyone anymore.

Just for fun here are my responses;

1. I think ND, even without Turner, can beat OSU. Coach Muffet will scheme to deny OSU's great guard( Mitchell ) from having another field day, and the rest of the team is not that good.

2. Stanford/Texas is, to me, the " toss-up." Texas is bigger and has lots of talent ( and next year, they have landed two of the nations top ten recruits ), but Stanford is smarter. This one is likely to go down to the wire. Everyone on Stanford has to play at their best to win this one.

3. I pretty much agree that this could go either way. If Vivians finds her stroke, Miss. St. will win. If not, Washington can surprise.

4. This is Baylor all the way. One-sided. Great Louisville coaching notwithstanding. I see this as a 20 point win, minimum.

5. I think the big money is all on Maryland. They are healthy and, as always, angry. I just don't think Oregon has the experience to win a game of this magnitude. Not yet. But next year they will.

6. You are right on about the Pac-12. They got 5 teams into the sweet 16 and a 6th ( California ) just got whacked by Baylor. I think UCONN has more talent on the floor at any given time, despite UCLA's all american guard and their player of the game from the most recent win. Besides, my nature does not let me predict a UCONN loss. I agree that this will be a battle with UCONN advancing.

7. I did not realize ( until today's Boneyard ) that South Carolina lost another starter. But they are deep, well coached, and designed ( not destined ) to win the championship. Quinnipiac has no chance. They have had a great, and surprising, run. Raise a glass to them. And, hopefully, their success will be a recruiting bonanza for them. And they will give it their all. But it isn't enough against SC.

8. It pains me that one of these teams will have to win. I don't like either one of them. Whenever I have watched either team in this tournament, they have looked mediocre. Yet, they are here.
Good way of putting it, " a distinction without a difference." Someone has to advance. I prefer Oregon St. just for a change. But Florida State will likely advance.

 

[Nuyoika]

Interesting: 538 has UConn at a 98% win probability vs UCLA. Baylor is at 93% vs Louisville.

Massey gave Cal a better chance to beat Baylor than Syracuse had to beat UConn... I thought that was odd.

 

[Fairfield Fan]

Looking over the Sweet Sixteen games, I don't see many match-ups, save perhaps for Quinnipiac and Louisville, that could really be called a possible "upset." And anyone beating UConn....well, we're not going there.

Ohio State/Notre Dame- ND is minus their star center. Ohio State is ranked 10th nationally. Toss-up.

Stanford/Texas: #6 v #15. And given Texas's up-and-down record, they could be "up" against Stanford.

Mississippi State/Washington- Washington made the Final Four last year, and they have the highest-scoring player in NCAA history. I can't say that a #11 ranked team beating a #7 ranked team would be much of an upset. And Mississippi State has been playing unevenly, especially Vivians. So can't say the gaming going one way or the other would be much of a surprise.

Baylor/Louisville- OK, Louisville's beating Baylor would be a big surprise. That would rank as "upset" material. But Louisville has a first-rate coach, and he's done wonders in the past with good, but not great, talent. And four years ago he took down Britney Griner's Baylor team. So huge surprise if they win? Nah.

Maryland/Oregon- I see Oregon doing this tournament what Breanna Stewart and UConn did Stewie's freshman year: a young team getting better and better, and reaching its best performance during the NCAA's. Maryland is a fine team, though until the NCAA's, it hasn't been challenged strongly or consistently during the season. But no surprise were Oregon to win.

Connecticut/UCLA- The Pac-12 is a surprise as a group. This will be Connecticut's biggest challenge since South Carolina. 'nuff said...

South Carolina/Quinnipiac- Yes, upset if it happens. But South Carolina appears to be missing two starters now: Alaina Coates and Alisha Gray. Sort of beginning to sound like UConn back in 2000 when it lost Abrosimova and Shea Ralph right before the NCAA's, and would up losing to Notre Dame. The loss of two starters has to impact even this team.

Oregon State/Florida State- #8 v #13. A distinction without a difference.

Quinnipiac is Cinderella. But I don't see anyone else who is an eye-popping underdog. Oregon will go into next season as a top-10 team at least. Those three freshman starters plus the one current sophomore aren't going to be surprising anyone anymore.

Just for fun here are my responses;

1. I think ND, even without Turner, can beat OSU. Coach Muffet will scheme to deny OSU's great guard( Mitchell ) from having another field day, and the rest of the team is not that good.

2. Stanford/Texas is, to me, the " toss-up." Texas is bigger and has lots of talent ( and next year, they have landed two of the nations top ten recruits ), but Stanford is smarter. This one is likely to go down to the wire. Everyone on Stanford has to play at their best to win this one.

3. I pretty much agree that this could go either way. If Vivians finds her stroke, Miss. St. will win. If not, Washington can surprise.

4. This is Baylor all the way. One-sided. Great Louisville coaching notwithstanding. I see this as a 20 point win, minimum.

5. I think the big money is all on Maryland. They are healthy and, as always, angry. I just don't think Oregon has the experience to win a game of this magnitude. Not yet. But next year they will.

6. You are right on about the Pac-12. They got 5 teams into the sweet 16 and a 6th ( California ) just got whacked by Baylor. I think UCONN has more talent on the floor at any given time, despite UCLA's all american guard and their player of the game from the most recent win. Besides, my nature does not let me predict a UCONN loss. I agree that this will be a battle with UCONN advancing.

7. I did not realize ( until today's Boneyard ) that South Carolina lost another starter. But they are deep, well coached, and designed ( not destined ) to win the championship. Quinnipiac has no chance. They have had a great, and surprising, run. Raise a glass to them. And, hopefully, their success will be a recruiting bonanza for them. And they will give it their all. But it isn't enough against SC.

8. It pains me that one of these teams will have to win. I don't like either one of them. Whenever I have watched either team in this tournament, they have looked mediocre. Yet, they are here.
Good way of putting it, " a distinction without a difference." Someone has to advance. I prefer Oregon St. just for a change. But Florida State will likely advance.

Wise observations. Many thanks.

The news that Brianna Turner is out for the tournament, and for many more months, means that the Ohio State/ND game is even "more of a toss-up."

Regarding UConn's talent surpassing everyone else's on the court, how many of us would say that last October? I think that UConn is the real cinderella team in this Sweet Sixteen. Not even Coach Geno thought they would show up at this point in the season with a perfect record. I'm continually amazed.

But ND and South Carolina are seriously hobbled, ND even more so after the announcement.

Hope to see QU do well. My upset picks have generally not done well. So I'm not betting the farm on them. Just wishing them luck.

 

[TerpWomenFan]

But looking at how well Oregon is playing now, I don't know. And Maryland was beaten by Ohio State before.

Maryland is also playing very well. They just had their best defensive performance of the season in the sub regionals. Tynice Martin who was the Big 10 tournament MVP was held to 10 points on 3-18 shooting.

 

[Fairfield Fan]

Maryland is also playing very well. They just had their best defensive performance of the season in the sub regionals. Tynice Martin who was the Big 10 tournament MVP was held to 10 points on 3-18 shooting.

Just checked the rankings with the Sweet Sixteen teams. 14 of the top 16 ranked teams are in the Sweet 16. Only QU and Oregon have crashed the party. I agree with you that Maryland is playing much better of late, as is Oregon. Both are peaking for the tournament.

Will be a heckuva game!

 

[Trappa]

I see Notre Dame falling. They lost Turner, and they were not too impressive against Purdue in the Battle of the Hoosier State the other day. On the other hand, they may be able to turn the Turner loss into motivation. But I think that's just too big of a loss for their already short post rotation.

I can also see Oregon pulling it out against Maryland. Those freshman are fearless!

 

[southie]

So many of the women's teams this year are very inconsistent in their play from one game to the next. UConn is definitely the most consistent and that is why they are the clear favorite. Baylor is the next most consistent, IMO.

Stanford barely survived New Mexico State in the first round; but, they waxed a solid KSU team on the road last night to advance. Which team shows up on Friday night?

We've watched some ugly performance this season from teams like Texas, UCLA, Oregon State, South Carolina, Washington, and FSU to name a few (of the Sweet 16). And, we've watched some very good performances from those same teams.

It's all about which team shows up this weekend and plays to their potential. If we're lucky (as fans), both teams in each game will play their best. Unfortunately, that doesn't happen very often. There will be blowouts. There will be upsets. And, there will be a lot of teams whose inconsistency will rear its ugly head.

 

[UConnNick]

I would be ecstatic if QU can pull the upset, rooting for the Bobcats here. Pray that the 3s will fall and Q will survive, but I am tempering my enthusiasm.

All of us pulling for The Q were "tempering our enthusiasm" during the first two rounds. They've more than proven they belong where they are right now...among the 16 best teams in America. Their seed number is no longer particularly relevant. I think they have a legitimate shot at shocking the world in the next round.