New Mexico St. vs UConn (my preview)

[EASTFLA]

If you listen to the stuffed suits talk about the game between UConn and New Mexico St. it makes it seem like they are the better team. It makes them sound like they are going to beat us, and we are one and done. They are 26-6 and I have heard on TV and radio that this team is rough, physical, and athletic and can shoot the 3. They have Teddy Allen who can do everything 19.3ppg, 6.8rpg, and 2.6apg. He can knock down 3's like nobody we have. Then there is Sir'Jabari Rice 12.2ppg, 5.3rpg, 3.2apg, and yet another great 3 point shooter. It is the dreaded 5 vs 12 games, so we are doomed. Now let's deal with reality.

New Mexico St. has been to the dance 11 times since 1994. They were either a 12 seed, a 13 seed, or a 14 seed. They are 0-11 (including 3 losses as a 12 seed), and have lost the 11 games by a total of 133 points, or just over 12ppg. I know, this is a different team and a different year. It is the same type of team they always have been. Some may argue the WAC was much tougher this year? That is far from true. According to Ken Pom the best RPI in the league was New Mexico St. at 81, followed by Grand Canyon who was 93. All the rest o the conference was over 100, and most were over 200. It is likely based on our season that we would have not lost a game in that conference.

Allen and Rice are good players, but they have not faced anything close to the defense they will see here. They have not been challenged off the glass like they will be here, and they have not seen a defense that will smother them like they will see Thursday. This team has lost to teams with the following RPI:

Utah St by 27 44
N. Mexico by 7 155
S. Houston by 25 140
Utah Valley by 4 116
Chicago St. by 2 339
SF Austin by 2 112

Really? If UConn lost 6 games like that, Danny Hurley would be getting fired, not anointed like I'm hearing about New Mexico St. They have 2 good wins this year, Washington St., and Davidson. Neither are as good as UConn. They have not seen a team with an RPI above 93 since December! This is going way up in class, above any level, they have seen all season. Back to Allen and Rice:

These two combined to go 122-370 from 3 this season, against a schedule of teams that average out to be horrific! That is 33%! They have a big kid in the middle Will McNair who is 6'10" 277. He averages just 6.7ppg and 4.7rpg in 32 minutes, so he isn't doing much. Sanogo is going to be too quick and more polished than any center he has gone up against this year, except a big game.

I can keep going, but this is a complete mismatch. Can New Mexico St. win? Of course they can, it is 1 game and anything can happen. I personally think we blow this team out with a convincing double-digit win, and onto Arkansas or Vermont. We certainly will have a good representation at this game in Buffalo, New Mexico St. will not.

PREDICTION:

UConn 83 New Mexico St. 66

ADVANCE!

 

[McLovin]

My advice is always pick against what the "experts" say on these talk shows. In CBB, in fantasy football, whatever.

They are all idiots who are wrong more than they are right. It's their jobs to create an intriguing narrative, not to give a real analysis.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Their offensive and defensive numbers look better than ours in a vacuum if you ignore quality of competition.

If you account for quality of competition, we're considerably better.

But, as usual, it comes down to matchups.

If their size inside neutralizes Sanogo (and he continues to be in a funk) and we don't hit enough outside shots, this could be a grind-it-out game in the 50s where one of their shooters getting uncharacteristically hot at the right time could make a difference.

Odds suggest we're about 70% to win this game, which feels about right and is slightly better than your average 5/12 (with us being a strong 5 and them a weak 12).

 

[OkaForPrez]

At the risk of being positive about something, we're doooomed of course. But if you told me to pick which position I want the other team's best scorer to play, I would whole heartedly shout WING! before you could get the full question out. We can take away a wing with Martin and Jackson.

 

[auror]

By KenPom, this is the best the WAC has been since 2013 (measured as how tough a team would be needed to go .500 in the league according to his stats).

NMSU is considerably worse than they were in '18 or 19, though.

 

[Jimdish255]

I think our challenge is to get a little more out of Polley than we have been. It probably comes down to some details about how we get him open and get him the ball. The other thing we need to do is be smart about RJ's playing time because we're going to need him if we plan to go anywhere this tournament. Good defense and smart transition BB will do the rest.

 

[auror]

I think our challenge is to get a little more out of Polley than we have been. It probably comes down to some details about how we get him open and get him the ball. The other thing we need to do is be smart about RJ's playing time because we're going to need him if we plan to go anywhere this tournament. Good defense and smart transition BB will do the rest.

Not a great defensive matchup for Polley. I don't want him guarding Teddy Allen, but it'll be a tall task for him to keep McCants off the offensive boards since Polley is a notoriously terrible defensive rebounder. I would love to have Teddy chase him around screens, but unfortunately they can probably have one of their other guards guard Polley since he's not a post up or offensive rebound threat.

 

[6xChamps]

Honestly I've probably listened to/watched 5 hours of bracket coverage since last night and I havent seen a single person pick against UConn. Maybe I'm missing something but not sure where this "experts think NMSU is a better team" narrative is coming from

 

[elmcityboy]

At the risk of being positive about something, we're doooomed of course. But if you told me to pick which position I want the other team's best scorer to play, I would whole heartedly shout WING! before you could get the full question out. We can take away a wing with Martin and Jackson.

i was thinking the same thing! jackson and martin have to be one of the best defensive wing combos in d1. if you consider whaley an option at that position (remember, he did a really good job on champagnie at the garden) and hawk is healthy, we have a ton of different guys to throw at allen.

 

[HooperScooper]

Honestly I've probably listened to/watched 5 hours of bracket coverage since last night and I haven't seen a single person pick against UConn. Maybe I'm missing something but not sure where this "experts think NMSU is a better team" narrative is coming from

Same here. I'm not sure where the OP's anger about the "stuffed suits" is coming from.

 

[mike012]

we are a hot pick to lose as a 5. But not sure why since NMSU has beaten no one and lost to no one’s. But it’s better to be on upset alert already. I think the team wil be zoned in compared to oh everyone says we will crush them. Plus I would rather play them then Rutgers or ND who has beaten and played top 25 teams this year.

 

[UConNick]

we are a hot pick to lose as a 5. But not sure why since NMSU has beaten no one and lost to no one’s. But it’s better to be on upset alert already. I think the team wil be zoned in compared to oh everyone says we will crush them. Plus I would rather play them then Rutgers or ND who has beaten and played top 25 teams this year.

Like others, I’m not really seeing it from the talking heads. Not seeing much on our game at all, frankly. Sure, some people might be saying it so they can offer a traditional 12/5 upset, but according to the numbers it doesn’t line up too well. That said, they’ve won 26 games and made the tournament. They are a good team and we shouldn’t look past them. But I’ve seen nothing that would suggest they should be heavily considered, based on the numbers.

In fact, there isn’t really a 12/5 I love. 5s are tough this year. Maybe play-in winner over St. Mary’s. Iowa should score too much for the Spiders. My personal one would probably be UAB over Houston, but again, like with us, the numbers don’t really offer a strong case for it. Hell, the 13/4s may end up having the more interesting games, as all of them besides Akron/UCLA could be competitive.

 

[Mr. Wonderful]

we are a hot pick to lose as a 5. But not sure why since NMSU has beaten no one and lost to no one’s. But it’s better to be on upset alert already. I think the team wil be zoned in compared to oh everyone says we will crush them. Plus I would rather play them then Rutgers or ND who has beaten and played top 25 teams this year.

Where did you see this?

 

[Tenspro2002]

Honestly I've probably listened to/watched 5 hours of bracket coverage since last night and I havent seen a single person pick against UConn. Maybe I'm missing something but not sure where this "experts think NMSU is a better team" narrative is coming from

Clark Kellogg could not shut up about NMSU during the Selection Show yesterday, but actual informed commentators haven't said much about them since.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Like others, I’m not really seeing it from the talking heads. Not seeing much on our game at all, frankly. Sure, some people might be saying it so they can offer a traditional 12/5 upset, but according to the numbers it doesn’t line up too well. That said, they’ve won 26 games and made the tournament. They are a good team and we shouldn’t look past them. But I’ve seen nothing that would suggest they should be heavily considered, based on the numbers.

In fact, there isn’t really a 12/5 I love. 5s are tough this year. Maybe play-in winner over St. Mary’s. Iowa should score too much for the Spiders. My personal one would probably be UAB over Houston, but again, like with us, the numbers don’t really offer a strong case for it. Hell, the 13/4s may end up having the more interesting games, as all of them besides Akron/UCLA could be competitive.

The 5 seeds are pretty strong this year.

Generally, the tiers are:
1) Gonzaga (favorite)
2) 8-9 other 1 seeds through strong 3 seeds are about even (legit contenders)
3) 10 weaker 3 seeds through 5 seeds are about even (chance to make a run)
(sizeable gap)
- middling seeds

I expect a lot of chaos in the 6 through 11 range, but very few upsets for teams seeded above 12 (except maybe SDSU over Providence).

Frankly, it wouldn't surprise me to see zero 6 seeds or below in the Elite 8 this year.

 

[UChusky916]

I am honestly not OVERLY concerned about the upset this year. Last year I was, and it came to fruition. Maryland was a really bad matchup.

This year's team is different... much tougher with more veteran leadership.

Also, Hurley had these guys honed-in and ready to compete in the BET, especially defensively. I expect the same for the NCAA tourney.

Offensively, UConn hasn't performed as well as we could have recently, but because of defense and rebounding, we find ourselves in striking distance with every opponent.

I think our athleticism, defense, and rebounding will overwhelm NM St. While their team strengths are defense and rebounding, they haven't played a team like ours.

The only concern of mine... if Hurley has the team too hyped, and we find ourselves overly-aggresive on defense, falling for pump fakes, resulting in foul trouble for key guys.

A lot of things would have to go wrong for us to not get the W. A combination of turnovers, foul trouble, and their team getting hot from 3 might make the upset possible.

At the end of the day, I think we win relatively comfortably, but I don't think we blow them out either.

UConn - 73
New Mexico St. - 60

 

[XLCenterFan]

My advice is always pick against what the "experts" say on these talk shows. In CBB, in fantasy football, whatever.

They are all idiots who are wrong more than they are right. It's their jobs to create an intriguing narrative, not to give a real analysis.

What do you mean? Barkley is great at picks.

 

[J187Money]

Bilas picked us.

 

[AZHuskiePop]

My advice is always pick against what the "experts" say on these talk shows. In CBB, in fantasy football, whatever.

They are all idiots who are wrong more than they are right. It's their jobs to create an intriguing narrative, not to give a real analysis.

The experts picked us to lose every NCAA tourney game in 2014 so that’s a good sign.
Hurley has to get a monkey off his back and put this team away early.
My chief concern is our short bench and how the game is called .

 

[RichCTBB]

I am honestly not OVERLY concerned about the upset this year. Last year I was, and it came to fruition. Maryland was a really bad matchup.

This year's team is different... much tougher with more veteran leadership.

Also, Hurley had these guys honed-in and ready to compete in the BET, especially defensively. I expect the same for the NCAA tourney.

Offensively, UConn hasn't performed as well as we could have recently, but because of defense and rebounding, we find ourselves in striking distance with every opponent.

I think our athleticism, defense, and rebounding will overwhelm NM St. While their team strengths are defense and rebounding, they haven't played a team like ours.

The only concern of mine... if Hurley has the team too hyped, and we find ourselves overly-aggresive on defense, falling for pump fakes, resulting in foul trouble for key guys.

A lot of things would have to go wrong for us to not get the W. A combination of turnovers, foul trouble, and their team getting hot from 3 might make the upset possible.

At the end of the day, I think we win relatively comfortably, but I don't think we blow them out either.

UConn - 73
New Mexico St. - 60

I feel like our experience be ‘nova will help us be disciplined against the pump fake

 

[Waquoit]

Bilas picked us.

I think he picked against us every game in 2011.

 

[Mr. Wonderful]

I think he picked against us every game in 2011.

I think that was Doug Gottlieb

 

[Waquoit]

I think that was Doug Gottlieb

Maybe it was 2014, come to think of it. I know Bilas had St. Joe's and both States (MI, IA).

 

[ucp990411]

The experts picked us to lose every NCAA tourney game in 2014 so that’s a good sign.
Hurley has to get a monkey off his back and put this team away early.
My chief concern is our short bench and how the game is called .

I agree how the game is called will be crucial. There will not be a crew of Big East refs doing this game who let mahem go. Big East refs are excellent even though we constantly complain about them. I would love to see Pat Driscoll do all of our games - he is the best.

 

[Mr. Wonderful]

Maybe it was 2014, come to think of it. I know Bilas had St. Joe's and both States (MI, IA).

I think you're right.