New Charts!!! Rebounding and Scoring

[jleves]

First, rebounds per game and for 40 minutes:

While Olander leads per game (who woulda thunk that?), it's pretty apparent that Drummond and Alex need to see more time. Drummond through avoiding fouls and Alex with effort. They are our best rebounders and they need to be on the court. The other interesting point is that Napier is a better rebounder than Lamb thus far. I didn't include Boat as I didn't think 2 games was significant. I did put Giffey in, but his minutes are too low to take much out of it.

Next, let's look at scoring:

No surprises here that Lamb and Napier dominate, but again, Drummond and Alex need to see more time. They are our 3rd and 4th best options based on productivity.

I realize that defense and fouls play a part in who gets minutes, but Drummond and Alex need to see more time as they are better rebounders and scorers when they get the minutes. I love what Olander brings and he's done well, but I think he might be getting a bit too much time.

Thoughts?

 

[61cygni]

Hmm, I think the rebounding chart better supports that AO and Drummond need to see more time. The second chart merely uses pts/40 min without really taking into account how efficient their scoring is, how many shots they are taking, etc. Just because Olander is producing about a basket less per 40/min doesn't mean as a team our scoring is suffering, he may well be giving up a shot to someone else like Napier or Lamb, a positive if they are shooting a higher points-per-shot. This might show up a bit in assists, but also sort of an invisible stat on general sites, since it's more of a possessions used type statistic.

EDIT: Then again, the shooting percentages tend to go with AO and AD as well.

 

[UChusky916]

Great stuff here! Love posts like this... one of the reasons I love this board.

 

[jleves]

Hmm, I think the rebounding chart better supports that AO and Drummond need to see more time. The second chart merely uses pts/40 min without really taking into account how efficient their scoring is, how many shots they are taking, etc. Just because Olander is producing about a basket less per 40/min doesn't mean as a team our scoring is suffering, he may well be giving up a shot to someone else like Napier or Lamb, a positive if they are shooting a higher points-per-shot. This might show up a bit in assists, but also sort of an invisible stat on general sites, since it's more of a possessions used type statistic.

EDIT: Then again, the shooting percentages tend to go with AO and AD as well.

Good point - so I decided to chart the bigs Assists and Turnovers and your argument is well founded:

+2 assists and almost the same turnover margin is significant. Nice call. Not sure it supplants the rebounding and scoring, but he is safer.

 

[61cygni]

On second read, it seems really strange when you look at Napier's and Lamb's rebounding when you compare to last year. Lamb taking a step back in that area with increased minutes while Bazz is eating up more than would be expected with increased minutes. Factor of Lamb being a primary scorer and Bazz mixing it up more inside?

 

[Fishy]

Straight numbers are often too simple to draw any grand conclusions.

As he gets more experience, Drummond will warrant more playing time, but he's where he should be right now.

While his rebounding per minute or per 40 or whatever is charted is more impressive than Olanders, we're probably a better defensive rebounding team with O in than when he's out. Alex and especially Andre get a very high percentage of their rebounds off of the offensive glass - they're not quite as dominant on the other end.

 

[Waquoit]

Not to sound like the Art Howe in Moneyball, but the charts don't take into account the effect of Olander making jump shots, something the other two guys can't do. That helped open up the Ark D yesterday.

 

[RS9999X]

If you factor in Blocks and Steals (general disruption) you get 30 for Drummond, 15 for Oriakhi and 11 for Olander. But that is offset by Olander's motion and potential to screens and create virtual mismatches rather than physical.

Stats are meaningful for creating groupings. These are close enough to require scouting and situational analysis.

The great news is having the best 3-man rotation in years -- at both G/SG and PF/C.

I think UConn fans need to look back to Boone, Armstrong, Okafor and the linebacker Ed Nelson for his kind of big potential. Bring on Bradley! A linebacker in the front court is a good thing

For the guards -- this may be the bomb. On offense and speed. They really need to work on 'D' and improve passing and breaking zones. Boatright appears to have some skills there. We need to see some shut down D from those guys.

I'm impressed. Kemba who? No one's mourning his passing to the greener pastures with this surfeit of talent.

 

[jleves]

If you factor in Blocks and Steals (general disruption) you get 30 for Drummond, 15 for Oriakhi and 11 for Olander. But that is offset by Olander's motion and potential to screens and create virtual mismatches rather than physical.

Stats are meaningful for creating groupings. These are close enough to require scouting and situational analysis.

The great news is having the best 3-man rotation in years -- at both G/SG and PF/C.

I think UConn fans need to look back to Boone, Armstrong, Okafor and the linebacker Ed Nelson for his kind of big potential. Bring on Bradley! A linebacker in the front court is a good thing

For the guards -- this may be the bomb. On offense and speed. They really need to work on 'D' and improve passing and breaking zones. Boatright appears to have some skills there. We need to see some shut down D from those guys.

I'm impressed. Kemba who? No one's mourning his passing to the greener pastures with this surfeit of talent.

Here is the blocks and steals comparison. Clearly Drummond is the most disruptive to the other teams offense.

 

[jleves]

Straight numbers are often too simple to draw any grand conclusions.

As he gets more experience, Drummond will warrant more playing time, but he's where he should be right now.

While his rebounding per minute or per 40 or whatever is charted is more impressive than Olanders, we're probably a better defensive rebounding team with O in than when he's out. Alex and especially Andre get a very high percentage of their rebounds off of the offensive glass - they're not quite as dominant on the other end.

Drummond gets a much higher % of rebounds on the offensive end. I'm not sure which is more valuable. I would think the Defensive rebounding is less important to a better defensive team as they can withstand more extra possessions.

 

[WhereistheDove?]

I think this is a little bit too simplistic. Looking at the box you'd think AO had a good game yesterday, but if you watched, I just don't see how you could come to that conclusion. Way too often he was just completely outworked on the boards. Times when he should have had easy rebounds, but he barely even attempted to box out. We all know AO is capable of playing at a much higher level but right now, he is not good. He needs to find that drive he had last year.

 

[jleves]

I think this is a little bit too simplistic. Looking at the box you'd think AO had a good game yesterday, but if you watched, I just don't see how you could come to that conclusion. Way too often he was just completely outworked on the boards. Times when he should have had easy rebounds, but he barely even attempted to box out. We all know AO is capable of playing at a much higher level but right now, he is not good. He needs to find that drive he had last year.

Well of course it's a pretty simplistic. There are so many other things going on that can't be easily charted - help defense, players not even bothering to take shots and passing out, causing a travel, etc. But the numbers aren't in a vacuum either. Yesterday every one of the bigs should have had probably three more defensive rebounds. They all got out worked, not just Alex.

I think Olander is playing about as well as you can expect - there isn't a lot more upside this year for him. Next year with some added strength and hopefully a quality big man camp he can take another step up. He could be better than Hilton by his senior year. Pretty good for a kid from Mansfield that everyone questioned when he was offered a ship.

Alex and Andre both have a ton more upside this year. They're both already more effecient for the amount of playing time they get compared to Olander (at least in terms of scoring and rebounding, other things may not be as good). They both have the ability to add at a minimum 6 and 4 to their per game numbers. No telling if they get there or not, but I don't think anyone would argue that they have peaked for the year.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

Jleves, thanks for the charts man. It's just another tool we can use in addition to watching the games with our eyes. I, and I think the rest of the Boneyard appreciate you posting them and hope you will continue to throughout the season.

 

[RS9999X]

He could be better than Hilton by his senior year. Pretty good for a kid from Mansfield that everyone questioned when he was offered a ship..

What would life be like without headscratchers? I think he takes Hilton
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As far as stats go we are seeing an increasing use of over/under stats to compare various positon matchups when a player is on the floor to create situational analysis.

Team and Opponent aggregate over/under stats when the player is on the floor.

Position over and under stats not just during the time on the floor but historical (was the opposing team held under their historical norms) as in which team and players matchups dictate tempo. Which players were held under their historical norms and when?

Points given and made off TOs, Blocks, Offensive Boards, and Fast Breaks are more common.

I'm counting on StatSheet.com to have the first Intelligently Designed Artificial Intelligence Engine for these comparisons and game simulations.

 

[jleves]

Jleves, thanks for the charts man. It's just another tool we can use in addition to watching the games with our eyes. I, and I think the rest of the Boneyard appreciate you posting them and hope you will continue to throughout the season.

I'm having fun making them. I may have to move beyond simple excel at some point. But I love stats and charts of numbers are usually hard to wrap an idea around so the visual stuff is more interesting. Let me know if there's anything you want to see that I haven't thought of or put up yet.

 

[huskyharry]

While Olander leads per game (who woulda thunk that?), it's pretty apparent that Drummond and Alex need to see more time.
Thoughts?[/quote]
Great charts...thanks for putting them together. I prefer having all four bigs get playing time. They all have different strengths and complement each other and the team in different ways. AO and AD are very strong within 5 feet of the hoop and are the best shot blockers. But they both struggle in the high post.
There is certainly a contigent on this board who want to bench TO and ignore some of the other positive aspects that he brings to the table, fortunately, JC is not of that belief. But, other than the FSU game, he has been the most consistent big man and is a much better passer than the other three (making his teammates more effective). I think we all agree that AD needs the minutes to get experience and when he is playing well he is clearly the best center. Stats per 40 minutes for the other 3:
AO 13.9 PPG 11.7 RPG 2.6 BPG 0.8 Assists per game 2.6 turnovers per game
TO 11.6 PPG 9.8 RPG 1.3 BPG 2.7 Assists per game 1.3 TPG
RS 8.9 PPG 7.2 RPG 0.8 BPG 0.2 APG 3.6 turnovers per game
Not shown but I think suggested by the blocks numbers, AO tries for more blocks which leaves him out of position for block outs leading to more opponent offensive rebounds. AO and RS really need to cut down on the turnovers. 2:1 Assist to turnover ratio for TO is very good for a big man.
Let the Master paint, indeed

 

[ctchamps]

Love the charts jleves. Thanks for putting them together.

Good commentary everyone. I would love it if anyone could chart shots taken in the paint by opposing teams in half court sets - attempted vs. completed. I think this help understand what the impact of shot blocking has on opposing teams efficiency. There seems to be a trade off with teams struggling to score in the paint but getting more offensive rebounds.

 

[mauconnfan]

Well of course it's a pretty simplistic. There are so many other things going on that can't be easily charted - help defense, players not even bothering to take shots and passing out, causing a travel, etc. But the numbers aren't in a vacuum either. Yesterday every one of the bigs should have had probably three more defensive rebounds. They all got out worked, not just Alex.

I think Olander is playing about as well as you can expect - there isn't a lot more upside this year for him. Next year with some added strength and hopefully a quality big man camp he can take another step up. He could be better than Hilton by his senior year. Pretty good for a kid from Mansfield that everyone questioned when he was offered a ship.

Alex and Andre both have a ton more upside this year. They're both already more effecient for the amount of playing time they get compared to Olander (at least in terms of scoring and rebounding, other things may not be as good). They both have the ability to add at a minimum 6 and 4 to their per game numbers. No telling if they get there or not, but I don't think anyone would argue that they have peaked for the year.

Very true and the "outworked" is really not the key word here. Our bigs were working but not smart in their positioning and boxing out. Got their hands on many rebounds but were bodied off due to not doing their jobs - BOX OUT. I don't care how athletic or big you ar at times the fundamentals of the game are important...and too many guys all trying to block the same shot. Noone in position to get the rebound and that hurts too - constantly telling my 16 yr old he's only a 6'3" white kid with limited hops so stay on your feet, put your hand in his face and then your ass on him and you did your job. Some of the Huskies need to choose this option a bit more often also!! We all love a blocked shot but I aslo love outrebounding teams!!

 

[jleves]

Very true and the "outworked" is really not the key word here. Our bigs were working but not smart in their positioning and boxing out. Got their hands on many rebounds but were bodied off due to not doing their jobs - BOX OUT. I don't care how athletic or big you ar at times the fundamentals of the game are important...and too many guys all trying to block the same shot. Noone in position to get the rebound and that hurts too - constantly telling my 16 yr old he's only a 6'3" white kid with limited hops so stay on your feet, put your hand in his face and then your ass on him and you did your job. Some of the Huskies need to choose this option a bit more often also!! We all love a blocked shot but I aslo love outrebounding teams!!

Totally agree - I'd much rather lead the country in rebound margin than blocks.

 

[Waquoit]

Totally agree - I'd much rather lead the country in rebound margin than blocks.

Going for the block has been a UConn staple for years. It's part of their overall winning strategy that has produced 3NC's.

 

[jleves]

Going for the block has been a UConn staple for years. It's part of their overall winning strategy that has produced 3NC's.

I certainly don't mind the block, but Oak did it while still ripping down an assload of boards. He got 4 blocks and over 11 boards per game his final year. Alex lead last year with 1.6 bpg as blocks were an important part. They still rebounded better than this year. And 99 didn't involve much in the way of blocks. While it's become a UConn staple over the last 10 years, rebounding is still hugely important and we need a little improvement.

 

[Waquoit]

I certainly don't mind the block, but Oak did it while still ripping down an assload of boards. He got 4 blocks and over 11 boards per game his final year. Alex lead last year with 1.6 bpg as blocks were an important part. They still rebounded better than this year. And 99 didn't involve much in the way of blocks. While it's become a UConn staple over the last 10 years, rebounding is still hugely important and we need a little improvement.

I haven't been following the stats very closely, but hasn't UConn been outrebounding their opponents by a pretty good margin until Saturday? Why is one off game in one stat the trend all of a sudden? Yeah, they can't get beat on the boards like that all the time, but I'm not going to go crazy over Saturday's rebounding especially since everything else was pretty good. That's JC's job.

 

[jleves]

I haven't been following the stats very closely, but hasn't UConn been outrebounding their opponents by a pretty good margin until Saturday? Why is one off game in one stat the trend all of a sudden? Yeah, they can't get beat on the boards like that all the time, but I'm not going to go crazy over Saturday's rebounding especially since everything else was pretty good. That's JC's job.

Well, that's a really good question, so guess what I did? I made a chart! We currently average +8 for the season, but there have been 3 or arguably 4 bad games considering the length of the competition this far. Plus 8 through a majority of cupcakes is not impressive - that will go down in Big East play without some major improvement. Suprisingly, last year we only averaged +4.4. That was a shock to me. We were +9.7 in 03/04. Anyway, here is the visual evidence: