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Message: [QUOTE="auror, post: 2530656, member: 1329"] If the top gets smaller, then there are fewer scholarships impacted by those transferring to the top and the transfer "epidemic" doesn't exist. One big thing you're missing: College athletes can't transfer to a higher paying position, which is the #1 reason in the real life people change jobs. There will always be less transfers in the college sports world than job changes because of this. A majority of college transfers do not transfer up for a shot at the pros. They leave their situations because they are untenable for them, and that's often down or out of division 1. The most apt comparison because of the lack of waiting period are graduate transfers. These are mature, ready to contribute players who don't clog up scholarships. They're among the most likely candidates to transfer up because they fill in roster gaps and are transitioning their life anyways (finished degree). There were like 80 grad transfers last year. The slots to transfer up just aren't there like you think there are. There are maybe 60 relevant "power" programs that someone might transfer up to. That's like 750 scholarships total. 50 will leave for the draft early, 180ish will graduate. Plus however many transfer down for normal reasons (6% previous transfer rate of the 560 non-graduating scholarships is 34). That leaves 264 open scholarships. The top 150 or so freshmen will still end up at those programs, so you're looking at around 115 transfers up. If you think there will be substantially more, that means you think coaches will be pushing out players happy at the program (otherwise they'd be in the current transfer number). I just don't see that happening. [/QUOTE]

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