I actually asked this question on a live Q&A with Eamonn Brennan and Brian Bennett. I asked if we, say, only lost to Nova down the stretch and then won 2 BET games (i.e., lost in the final) to get to 24-9, would we be able to move up to the 5 or 4 line?
While pretty complimentary of UConn, they, especially Brian, were very critical of our current resume, and felt that the teams in front of us were too strong resume-wise to really overcome. They said we’d have a decent shot for a 5 in that scenario, but probably wouldn’t make it all the way to even consideration for a 4.
I was unsatisfied with their answer; we have several teams that only need to move up a couple spots for our wins to bump up a quadrant (St. John’s already did for our 3rd Q1 win). If we really do take care of business down the stretch and a team like Marquette gets back inside the NET top 25, that 3 Q1 wins could be something far different, maybe as high as 10, on Selection Sunday. If we’re 24-9 on Selection Sunday with a 9-8 Q1 record (and like a 6-1 Q2), I have a hard time believing that team wouldn’t be on the 4 line. With a win in either of my projected losses (Nova or BE title game) being enough to push us to 3.
But again, we have to actually win these games down the stretch.