College basketball is in a shooting renaissance.
For fun I looked at the team ranked 100th in effective field goal % (eFG%) each year. It's arbitrary and maybe I'll look at average and median at some point, but that's generally what I consider the baseline to be a "decent" team.
2018 - 53%
2017 - 52.1%
2016 - 51.5%
2015 - 50.4%
2014 - 51.2%
2013 - 50.1%
From 2002-2016, the 100th team eFG% every year was between 50 and 51.9. Last year climbed higher and this year is the highest of the last 15 years at least (maybe ever, data I looked at goes back to '02). There's a chance for some regression this year as we enter the slog of conference play and more familiar opponents, but I doubt it falls below 2017's mark.
Whether you attribute this to Morey ball or a Warriors/Steph Curry/pace and space effect or some combination, there's no denying the trend and I'm not pretending this is exactly groundbreaking research.
Meanwhile, this year's UConn team is by far our worst shooting team during that same post '02 span, 45.6 eFG%. Considering our shooting woes are not isolated to particular high usage players, nor to outside vs. inside the arc, it's likely both system not creating open or easy shots and not putting enough emphasis on shooting in recruiting.
Some other random factoids:
For fun I looked at the team ranked 100th in effective field goal % (eFG%) each year. It's arbitrary and maybe I'll look at average and median at some point, but that's generally what I consider the baseline to be a "decent" team.
2018 - 53%
2017 - 52.1%
2016 - 51.5%
2015 - 50.4%
2014 - 51.2%
2013 - 50.1%
From 2002-2016, the 100th team eFG% every year was between 50 and 51.9. Last year climbed higher and this year is the highest of the last 15 years at least (maybe ever, data I looked at goes back to '02). There's a chance for some regression this year as we enter the slog of conference play and more familiar opponents, but I doubt it falls below 2017's mark.
Whether you attribute this to Morey ball or a Warriors/Steph Curry/pace and space effect or some combination, there's no denying the trend and I'm not pretending this is exactly groundbreaking research.
Meanwhile, this year's UConn team is by far our worst shooting team during that same post '02 span, 45.6 eFG%. Considering our shooting woes are not isolated to particular high usage players, nor to outside vs. inside the arc, it's likely both system not creating open or easy shots and not putting enough emphasis on shooting in recruiting.
Some other random factoids:
- Of our 6 most frequent 3-point shooters, 4 are shooting less than 30%.
- Diarra is a big shooting less than 35% from inside the arc.
- Before getting injured, Gilbert was having an absolutely horrendous shooting year: 23% from 3, 37% from 2, and 55% from FT.
- Anderson is shooting fine from inside the arc, 52%, which leads the team for players taking at least one shot a game. Outside, he's shooting 27%, which is even worse than his pretty bad career 33%. He's making 91% from the line, which is one of the best marks in the country.
- Polley has made 1 of his last 7 shots over the last 5 games, which probably partially explains his lack of minutes. That and his season long averages of 38% inside the arc and 23% outside of it.
- Jalen Adams went from 86% as a freshman at the FT line, to 83% as a sophomore and 72% this year.
