NCAA Power Ten | The Boneyard

NCAA Power Ten

Wbbfan1

Wbbfan1

And That’s The Way It Is
Joined
Aug 26, 2011
Messages
9,172
Reaction Score
17,478
www.ncaa.com

Women's basketball rankings: Maryland and UCLA break into latest Power 10

Here are the Power 10 women's college basketball rankings for the eighth week of the 2020-21 season.
www.ncaa.com www.ncaa.com

I would think the possibility exists that UConn will drop in Rankings if they don't improve their level of opponents. It is important for Seeding Purposes that the Lady Vols and South Carolina games are played as scheduled and that UConn wins both games. Looking at the schedule there aren't many open dates available unless Geno and staff agree to travel and play a game with only one days rest between games. This presumes remaining games are played as scheduled. There are seven days available between Feb 18th and Feb 24th, so an additional game could be scheduled during that time period.
 
Playing these two teams will be a good barometer for the capability of the UConn Women. But in this year, it is sketchy to say who is ranked higher or lower than the other. The way that Geno and his staff coach/teach, I would think, no matter what, the UConn Women are in the top 10 and probably among the top 5 at this point in time. So, let us wait and see. Hopefully, these games will be played and tournament will go on.
 
I agree with @veryolddog. I'm paying almost no attention to the rankings this year because so much is out of the control of teams (and conferences, and the NCAA). Every game played is a gift. Seeding for the tournament is pretty low on my list of concerns. I want to see the season go forward (if it can safely) for the young women playing the game, their growth, and their hopes for the future.
 
Here's another surprise, based on the NET Rating...what the NCAA is going with this year to determine seedings. UConn is sitting pretty at #1. Screen capture from WarrenNolan.com (link below)

One more point, the other surprise I noticed, the PAC-12 is #5 in RPI...followed closely by the BigEast at #6

Advanced Stats - Net Rating 2021 Women's College Basketball | WarrenNolan.com

2021 Women's College Basketball - Advanced Stats - Net Rating (Offensive Rating minus Defensive Rating) a ranking of every Division I Team
warrennolan.com warrennolan.com

1611059435272.png


1611059751284.png
 
.-.
mbr33ct said:
Here's another surprise, based on the NET Rating...what the NCAA is going with this year to determine seedings. UConn is sitting pretty at #1. Screen capture from WarrenNolan.com (link below)

One more point, the other surprise I noticed, the PAC-12 is #5 in RPI...followed closely by the BigEast at #6

Advanced Stats - Net Rating 2021 Women's College Basketball | WarrenNolan.com

2021 Women's College Basketball - Advanced Stats - Net Rating (Offensive Rating minus Defensive Rating) a ranking of every Division I Team
warrennolan.com warrennolan.com

View attachment 63743

View attachment 63744
Expand ...
Banner time
 
mbr33ct said:
Here's another surprise, based on the NET Rating...what the NCAA is going with this year to determine seedings. UConn is sitting pretty at #1. Screen capture from WarrenNolan.com (link below)

One more point, the other surprise I noticed, the PAC-12 is #5 in RPI...followed closely by the BigEast at #6

Advanced Stats - Net Rating 2021 Women's College Basketball | WarrenNolan.com

2021 Women's College Basketball - Advanced Stats - Net Rating (Offensive Rating minus Defensive Rating) a ranking of every Division I Team
warrennolan.com warrennolan.com
Expand ...

this is the wrong ranking.
The ‘net rating’ is not the same as the NCAAs NET Rankings.

Though UConn is #1 in NET too.
 
Our prospects are very dependent on having fewer losses than the teams looking for a number one seed. They play far more challenging games within their conference, and most have lost fewer games from their schedule to the virus, so will probably have more wins at the end of the season. I think there is a very good chance that any team we are tied with on losses will be ranked ahead of us because of more quality wins.

The good news is many of the top contenders have a loss. Only two of the major conferences could still produce an undefeated team. Louisville or North Carolina State in the ACC (but obviously not both) and I think Michigan could in theory, but few expect them to complete the season unblemished.

I think a top seed is something we have control over, if we win out. The number 1 overall seed is different, we could run the table, and still not get that if Louisville or North Carolina State goes undefeated. If our only loss was South Carolina it is hard to tell about a top seed, but if a few of the top teams suffer another loss, maybe. And finally if we have two losses, however it happens, I think we can kiss a top seed goodbye.
 
None of this is under any sort of control and all kinds of rationalizations can be made for ranking the teams and determining the seeds for a tournament that may or may not happen.

This year, it's all about taking care of what you can. As much as Dick Vitale drives me nuts, this year all you can do is "just win baby!" and let the chips fall where they may.
 
.-.
vowelguy said:
this is the wrong ranking.
The ‘net rating’ is not the same as the NCAAs NET Rankings.

Though UConn is #1 in NET too.
Expand ...

This is the REAL NCAA net rankings AS OF NOW:

DI Women's Basketball Rankings - NCAA Women's Basketball NET Rankings | NCAA.com

12UConnBig East7-02-00-05-00-0
21StanfordPac-1211-18-10-03-00-0
33South CarolinaSEC9-14-02-03-10-0
44OregonPac-129-35-20-04-10-0
56LouisvilleACC12-03-01-08-00-0
65BaylorBig 128-23-10-05-10-0
77NC StateACC10-03-00-07-00-0
89IndianaBig Ten8-33-20-05-10-0
911MichiganBig Ten10-04-00-06-00-0
108UCLAPac-128-23-10-05-10-0
 
The only real ranking is UConn at #1 and also in the "fake" ranking...all others are fake. :rolleyes:
 
so if you remove UConn from the Big East ratings, which conference is higher, Big East or AAC?
 
We need to consider that most teams have not played any significant out of conference games so that would certainly affect inter conference rankings. Too many P5 interconference games were canceled. Those would have been a key indicator of conference strength.
 
I have seen a lot of most of those teams and Baylor #6, Oregon #4 and Indiana #8 seem highly suspect.

In response to @Ralph , If you just remove UConn, Big East is still ahead, If you put UConn back in the AAC, I suspect the leagues will be very close.

I do wonder if the dregs of the ACC (Virginia), SEC (Vandy), AAC (SMU) who have all quit will boost their conference's standings?
 
.-.
Wbbfan1 said:
This weeks NCAA Power 10. Women's basketball rankings: Louisville is the new No. 1 team in Week 9's Power 10

I'm surprised UConn is #2 considering how few games they've played and strength of schedule. I would have ranked both NC State and Stanford higher. I wonder if Michigan is getting any consideration for breaking into the Top 10. Michigan is 10-0 and beat Northwestern by 20.
Expand ...
I also wonder and if not to me it's a head scratcher. I have watched a few of their games and they are good and have a 100% team approach to the game. I also wonder if Iowa St. will make a move or remain an up and down team. They have talent.
 
mbr33ct said:
Here's another surprise, based on the NET Rating...what the NCAA is going with this year to determine seedings. UConn is sitting pretty at #1. Screen capture from WarrenNolan.com (link below)

One more point, the other surprise I noticed, the PAC-12 is #5 in RPI...followed closely by the BigEast at #6

Advanced Stats - Net Rating 2021 Women's College Basketball | WarrenNolan.com

2021 Women's College Basketball - Advanced Stats - Net Rating (Offensive Rating minus Defensive Rating) a ranking of every Division I Team
warrennolan.com warrennolan.com

View attachment 63743

View attachment 63744
Expand ...
Okay, this is easily the dumbest ranking I have ever seen. It punishes tough conferences. The Pac12 is easily—by several court lengths—the best conference in the country. No team from any other conference—including UConn—could go undefeated if they were in PAC-12.
 
DefenseBB said:
I have seen a lot of most of those teams and Baylor #6, Oregon #4 and Indiana #8 seem highly suspect.
Expand ...

Regular reminder that computer rankings are data dependent, and thus are often suspect until they have a lot of data. And they get more accurate as the season progresses.

On the men's side, the NET rankings are used to divide the teams into 4 groups ("quadrants"), and then a team's resume is based on its performance against those groups. Quad 1 wins & quad 4 losses being particularly important. I'm not 100% sure if the women's committee does it the same way, but Nolan assumes so and produces the team sheets (the "resume"). You can see them here: http://www.warrennolan.com/basketballw/2021/net-teamsheets
This gives the best picture of what the committee is studying.

Lastly, cross-conference rankings can only exist if there are non-conference games. With non-conf schedules significantly reduced this year, the amount of data driving those comparisons is particularly small, and thus more likely to be screwy. In a normal year, we'd have about 1700 non-conference data points (games). This year I doubt we have had even 500.
 
Time to throw in Massey's (after eyeballing Oregon this past weekend):

TeamRecordΔRatPwrOffDefHFASoSSSFEWEL
Correlation6511000995907836429684776351-459

Stanford
Pac 12		11-1
0.917		1
9.41		2
75.07		7
104.83		1
35.62		2.833
54.23		8
55.42		12.261.74
South Carolina
Southeastern		10-1
0.909		+12
9.39		1
76.37		2
107.31		4
34.44		2.864
54.02		7
55.54		10.531.47
Connecticut
Big East		7-0
1.000		-13
9.30		4
73.74		8
103.51		2
35.62		2.8578
44.66		68
48.18		10.851.15
Oregon
Pac 12		9-3
0.750		4
8.96		3
74.36		6
104.97		3
34.78		2.8410
53.57		14
54.63		9.621.38
Louisville
Atlantic Coast		12-0
1.000		+35
8.66		6
67.29		10
102.16		15
30.51		2.7869
45.13		59
49.72		8.852.15
Baylor
Big 12		8-2
0.800		-16
8.58		5
71.04		9
102.35		5
34.08		2.89129
41.45		66
48.25		10.491.51
NC State
Atlantic Coast		10-0
1.000		-17
8.51		10
64.46		14
99.78		18
30.06		2.8563
45.77		61
49.50		8.582.42
UCLA
Pac 12		8-2
0.800		-18
8.42		8
65.92		15
99.46		13
31.85		2.8218
52.25		9
55.03		7.803.
 
.-.
oldhuskie said:
Our prospects are very dependent on having fewer losses than the teams looking for a number one seed. They play far more challenging games within their conference, and most have lost fewer games from their schedule to the virus, so will probably have more wins at the end of the season. I think there is a very good chance that any team we are tied with on losses will be ranked ahead of us because of more quality wins.

The good news is many of the top contenders have a loss. Only two of the major conferences could still produce an undefeated team. Louisville or North Carolina State in the ACC (but obviously not both) and I think Michigan could in theory, but few expect them to complete the season unblemished.

I think a top seed is something we have control over, if we win out. The number 1 overall seed is different, we could run the table, and still not get that if Louisville or North Carolina State goes undefeated. If our only loss was South Carolina it is hard to tell about a top seed, but if a few of the top teams suffer another loss, maybe. And finally if we have two losses, however it happens, I think we can kiss a top seed goodbye.
Expand ...

I think you overstate the depth of the P-5's. In the B12 last year there was one team in the top 25. There are at most 2 top 8 schools in any conference. And if your team is being considered for a No 1 overall then beating a bunch of teams ranked 20-50 is not a challenge, and if it is then you are not an overall one seed. And all the P-5's have 4-5 teams down at the bottom that would be in the bottom half of the AAC if they played there. (Apologies to the Tree fans who just got beat by one of them).
This year is an aberration. UConn depends on OOC games for elite competition and while those games disappeared for CT the other top teams could fall back on a couple of conference games. But for all the weak teams UConn has faced at least they won them all convincingly. By the tournament they will likely have played DePaul 3 times and DePaul is a 4 seed for Creme. The 1st quality opponent S Car faced was NCSt and they couldn't compete. It was a different Boston from that game and the Arkj game.
I expect UConn to win convincingly at TBA and what will help them is that the media over-ranks the Vols so some of them will be obliged to give UConn more credit for the win than they deserve.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Forum statistics

Threads
167,938
Messages
4,545,707
Members
10,427
Latest member
CarloPFF


Top Bottom