NCAA Championship Odds - Am I Missing Something? | The Boneyard

NCAA Championship Odds - Am I Missing Something?

jleves

Awesomeness
Joined
Aug 27, 2011
Messages
4,253
Reaction Score
15,065
So I'm looking at the odds to win the championship and I see Duke, ranked 21st is 8.5:1. Cincy ranked 14 is 100:1. Both of these (rankings and odds) are from the 30th and I don't know if one came out before the other, but no matter, the discrepancy is so large.

I'm guessing this is the age-old definition of where people are putting their money vs. what Vegas actually expects to happen.

But who would put 100 bucks on Duke to win 850 instead of putting 100 bucks on Cincy, the better ranked team to win 10,000?

I made need to travel to Vegas in the next couple weeks and it would seem that $100 on Cincy may be a good idea.
 
Joined
Oct 19, 2014
Messages
1,383
Reaction Score
14,206
Duke has more talent than any team in the nation. Vegas' thought process is that they can turn it on at anytime
 
Joined
Aug 26, 2011
Messages
9,336
Reaction Score
23,496
12 times as likely?

I'm not sure. Looks like Kentucky, UCLA, Kansas, Nova, Duke, Gonzaga, Arizona, and UNC are all around 10 to 1, depending on where you check. I'm guessing Vegas feels pretty confident that the champ will come fro that group.

Then you have Louisville, Virginia, Oregon, West Virginia, and Baylor. If I were looking to bet on a team with an outside chance that would fetch decent odds, I think I'd pick one of those. (Interestingly, all of those teams grade out very well on the computers but don't have the same level talent that the other teams do. There must be an algorithm in there somewhere that somebody smarter than me has figured out.)

100 to 1 sounds about right for Cincinnati. Duke might be overpriced at 8.5 to 1, though, as I imagine a lot of the brand names typically are.
 

RayIsTheGOAT

Sticks, to the rafters
Joined
Apr 5, 2015
Messages
2,941
Reaction Score
20,529
Little high for Duke perhaps, but they still have a much better chance of winning the national championship than Cincinnati, absolutely. Rankings mean absolute jack- in terms of chances to win a national championship. I'll put my money on a team in the ACC coached by Coach K and has the top 2 recruits in the country any day over Cincinnati.
By this logic, do you believe Gonzaga should have the highest odds to win the national championship right now because Villanova lost @Marquette by 2 in the middle of the regular season?
 
Joined
Nov 21, 2012
Messages
4,634
Reaction Score
9,912
So I'm looking at the odds to win the championship and I see Duke, ranked 21st is 8.5:1. Cincy ranked 14 is 100:1. Both of these (rankings and odds) are from the 30th and I don't know if one came out before the other, but no matter, the discrepancy is so large.

I'm guessing this is the age-old definition of where people are putting their money vs. what Vegas actually expects to happen.

But who would put 100 bucks on Duke to win 850 instead of putting 100 bucks on Cincy, the better ranked team to win 10,000?

I made need to travel to Vegas in the next couple weeks and it would seem that $100 on Cincy may be a good idea.
I took Cincy at 125-1 on Monday, do they have a chance to win it? No, but the value is too good to pass up and provides hedging opportunities if they could get past the first weekend.

With that being said, gun to my head if I had to choose a team to win it btw Duke and Cincy I am taking Duke 10 out of 10 times. Polls mean nothing. Kenpom, KPI, Sargain, ect. all rank Duke higher. Cincy record is inflated based on its poor SOS.
 

BUConn10

Artist formerly known as BUHusky10
Joined
Dec 13, 2011
Messages
4,066
Reaction Score
10,556
If Cinci is ever going to win a title under Cronin, this is the year its going to happen, or at least their best shot at it. They have their senior leader in Caupain, good shooters, a very solid big and a great freshman and bench player in Cumberland or whatever his name is. They are a good team, and those are great odds.
 
Joined
Sep 6, 2011
Messages
12,087
Reaction Score
63,198
I took Cincy at 125-1 on Monday, do they have a chance to win it? No, but the value is too good to pass up and provides hedging opportunities if they could get past the first weekend.

With that being said, gun to my head if I had to choose a team to win it btw Duke and Cincy I am taking Duke 10 out of 10 times. Polls mean nothing. Kenpom, KPI, Sargain, ect. all rank Duke higher. Cincy record is inflated based on its poor SOS.

How are you going to hedge this? Pick against them every single game after the first weekend? Genuinely curious.
 
Joined
Nov 21, 2012
Messages
4,634
Reaction Score
9,912
How are you going to hedge this? Pick against them every single game after the first weekend? Genuinely curious.
You can, 125/1 allows you to do that without taking a substantial chuck outta of your winning if they happen to a actually win it all. Personally I would start hedging at the elite 8,

On $50 bet at 125-1, you could conceivably start hedging in the Eliete 8 with a goal of being +$450 if the title bet losses, and if you lose each hedge you can still win around $2750 on the title bet. This will obviously fluctuate depending on juice of MLs.
 
Joined
Aug 27, 2011
Messages
16,036
Reaction Score
23,100
Little high for Duke perhaps, but they still have a much better chance of winning the national championship than Cincinnati, absolutely. Rankings mean absolute jack- in terms of chances to win a national championship. I'll put my money on a team in the ACC coached by Coach K and has the top 2 recruits in the country any day over Cincinnati.
By this logic, do you believe Gonzaga should have the highest odds to win the national championship right now because Villanova lost @Marquette by 2 in the middle of the regular season?
Teams can play drastically different game to game, but Duke has the horses on their roster. Which is why coach K is doing an absolutely crap job this year. National writer questioned KO's prospects in Storrs with his decimated roster and you don't hear boo about Duke, except K's "injury" and Allen's rehab, I haven't watched Cincy this year so Sat will be the first time.
 

Online statistics

Members online
451
Guests online
3,388
Total visitors
3,839

Forum statistics

Threads
155,796
Messages
4,031,956
Members
9,865
Latest member
Sad Tiger


Top Bottom