NBA Trade Deadline 2019

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nelsonmuntz

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Yes, I don't understand why people don't reconcile LeBron's terrible history as 'GM' - his shortsighted demands ultimately sabotaged 3 rosters and counting. Only upside is the first time he killed Cleveland's roster so thoroughly that it resulted in the #1 lottery picks.

Zion is can't miss along the lines of AD, LeBron himself, KD, Duncan & others that were consensus #1s. I'm not into anointing youngsters before they've won a damn thing, but in the words of Ernie Capadino; "I know the goods when I see the goods, and she's [he's] the goods"!
Zion is 6'7 and may need to play at the 4. He dominates in college because he is a better athlete and plays on a dominant team. Those advantages go away next season. IT is funny how many of these "can't miss" prospects turn out to be just OK, or worse. Also funny how Trae Young was too short and Luka Doncic was too slow and not athletic enough, while Bagley was the sure thing. And Fultz and Ball were going to be huge stars, while who the XXX is Donovan Mitchell? The 2015 draft got it right more or less with 3 of the top 4 picks, but the Porzingis pick was so controversial that the whole place erupted in boos.

I don't love Zion, and I would definitely trade the pick if I got it. I don't think he will suck, but that #1 pick has a lot of trade value, and I would go for the immediate help if I was the NBA lottery winner.
 
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He dominates in college because he is a better athlete and plays on a dominant team. Those advantages go away next season.
His athleticism will be elite even in the NBA. Also, he is his team's domination. Lefty noted in another thread they're 3-3 without him. Mostly because he is incredibly efficient on offense and also a dominant defender.

IT is funny how many of these "can't miss" prospects turn out to be just OK, or worse. Also funny how Trae Young was too short and Luka Doncic was too slow and not athletic enough, while Bagley was the sure thing. And Fultz and Ball were going to be huge stars, while who the XXX is Donovan Mitchell?
There are great prospects and then there is can't miss. Fultz was a great prospect, and other than perhaps Boston, the universal #1. But he was not "can't miss". Which is why Boston was comfortable trading the pick. Zion is in a different class as a prospect, from stats, results, athleticism, to intangibles. He's got just about everything (and if he can somewhat consistently hit NBA 3's he will literally have everything).

Trae Young was too small... to play good D. Which is still the case. Which means if his offense doesn't totally translate, he's a net negative, and that's a risk. But he was still a universal top 6 pick. Looks like most of his offense is translating so far, so that's a good sign for him. I think most people re-drafting this class would still slot him 3rd or 4th.

Luka Doncic was a 1A vs. 1B pick with Ayton for almost every mock draftboard out there. The only people that had Bagley over him were the Kings, so I'm not sure why you say people say Bagley was the sure thing between the two. But even still, Bagley is going to be very, very good.

I don't love Zion, and I would definitely trade the pick if I got it. I don't think he will suck, but that #1 pick has a lot of trade value, and I would go for the immediate help if I was the NBA lottery winner.
An NBA lottery winner doesn't need immediate help. They need high ceilings. Unless a surprise team wins from the edge of the lottery, in which case maybe it makes sense to trade.
 

nelsonmuntz

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His athleticism will be elite even in the NBA. Also, he is his team's domination. Lefty noted in another thread they're 3-3 without him. Mostly because he is incredibly efficient on offense and also a dominant defender.



There are great prospects and then there is can't miss. Fultz was a great prospect, and other than perhaps Boston, the universal #1. But he was not "can't miss". Which is why Boston was comfortable trading the pick. Zion is in a different class as a prospect, from stats, results, athleticism, to intangibles. He's got just about everything (and if he can somewhat consistently hit NBA 3's he will literally have everything).

Trae Young was too small... to play good D. Which is still the case. Which means if his offense doesn't totally translate, he's a net negative, and that's a risk. But he was still a universal top 6 pick. Looks like most of his offense is translating so far, so that's a good sign for him. I think most people re-drafting this class would still slot him 3rd or 4th.

Luka Doncic was a 1A vs. 1B pick with Ayton for almost every mock draftboard out there. The only people that had Bagley over him were the Kings, so I'm not sure why you say people say Bagley was the sure thing between the two. But even still, Bagley is going to be very, very good.



An NBA lottery winner doesn't need immediate help. They need high ceilings. Unless a surprise team wins from the edge of the lottery, in which case maybe it makes sense to trade.
I agree that all NBA Draft busts were not "can't miss" prospects in hindsight.

NBA Mock Draft 2017: Back to the future with Lonzo to Lakers and Tatum to Celtics

Is Fultz "can't-miss"? He's as close as there is to can't-miss as there is in this draft, which is loaded with great talents but devoid of a Karl-Anthony Towns-like, Kyrie Irving-like, LeBron James-like transcendent and surefire superstar.
Jabari Parker was the 2nd pick of the 2014 draft. College superstar from Duke.

The NBA is a big step up from college, and there hasn't been a "can't miss" prospect since Anthony Davis. Any draft pick can miss.
 
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I agree that all NBA Draft busts were not "can't miss" prospects in hindsight.
NBA Mock Draft 2017: Back to the future with Lonzo to Lakers and Tatum to Celtics
Jabari Parker was the 2nd pick of the 2014 draft. College superstar from Duke.
The NBA is a big step up from college, and there hasn't been a "can't miss" prospect since Anthony Davis. Any draft pick can miss.
That's more reasoned as you kind of pick & choose whose analysis you like and don't like in detailing that Trae Young wasn't liked, LukaD wasn't but Lonzo and Fultz were and Bagley was a 'sure thing' (the kings were shat on for that pick). ALL of those guys had supporters and detractors, hence why they were involved in trades, not on the list of certain teams etc...
And of course there is always a human element to it, even for can't miss talent and motors assuming there's consensus of that with Zion. Also its a snapshot, last year for 2017 most would have said Tatum shoulda been #1, now its De'Aaron Fox.

In retrospect even KD had his detractors & weaknesses (literally too weak, legend was he couldn't bench press 185lbs once) and of course Oden was picked ahead of him.

I haven't seen nearly enough of him (highlights and maybe 1 full game) and this 'injury' holdout is troubling, but I'll stick with Zion is can't miss - and again I think he's the first can't miss since AD. Can't miss = will make multiple all-star games, multiple all NBA - doesn't necessarily mean postseason success or HOF. Lastly of course there is no such thing and 'can't miss' is obviously hyperbole as we are all day to day, but we all know what it means.
 

intlzncster

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That's more reasoned as you kind of pick & choose whose analysis you like and don't like in detailing that Trae Young wasn't liked, LukaD wasn't but Lonzo and Fultz were and Bagley was a 'sure thing' (the kings were shat on for that pick). ALL of those guys had supporters and detractors, hence why they were involved in trades, not on the list of certain teams etc...
And of course there is always a human element to it, even for can't miss talent and motors assuming there's consensus of that with Zion. Also its a snapshot, last year for 2017 most would have said Tatum shoulda been #1, now its De'Aaron Fox.

In retrospect even KD had his detractors & weaknesses (literally too weak, legend was he couldn't bench press 185lbs once) and of course Oden was picked ahead of him.

I haven't seen nearly enough of him (highlights and maybe 1 full game) and this 'injury' holdout is troubling, but I'll stick with Zion is can't miss - and again I think he's the first can't miss since AD. Can't miss = will make multiple all-star games, multiple all NBA - doesn't necessarily mean postseason success or HOF. Lastly of course there is no such thing and 'can't miss' is obviously hyperbole as we are all day to day, but we all know what it means.
In fairness, I think most of the Luka detractors were full of it. Damn near none had watched him play. The kid was an absolute stud in the Euro the year before. That just doesn't happen at his age.

People heard 'lack of athleticism" and parroted it. Without understanding the kid's game.
 
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In fairness, I think most of the Luka detractors were full of it. Damn near none had watched him play. The kid was an absolute stud in the Euro the year before. That just doesn't happen at his age.

People heard 'lack of athleticism" and parroted it. Without understanding the kid's game.
True, but presumably the Hawks front office watched Luka play and made the decision to go for Young. It is actually great that as of this writing that could turn into a fun what-if debate for both franchises that made workable decisions. Luka is still the surer bet, but Trae as a Curry remix (not better but similar) is back on the table.
 

intlzncster

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Zion is in a different class as a prospect, from stats, results, athleticism, to intangibles. He's got just about everything (and if he can somewhat consistently hit NBA 3's he will literally have everything).

An NBA lottery winner doesn't need immediate help. They need high ceilings. Unless a surprise team wins from the edge of the lottery, in which case maybe it makes sense to trade.
And not to be undersold, but he's a marketers DREAM. Even on a bad team, he's gonna put azzes in the seats. Which = money.
 
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And not to be undersold, but he's a marketers DREAM. Even on a bad team, he's gonna put azzes in the seats. Which = money.
Excellent point, put him on the Knicks and the increased interest, fans, advertising etc could be worth another 1B on the franchise price. 2B if it results in a sale (team is worth more by definition the minute Dolan is out).
 

nelsonmuntz

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Antetokounmpo was the 15th pick of the 2013 draft, and I think there is about a 75% chance that neither the Bucks GM or Director of Player of Personnel had seen him play prior to selecting him. I have read and heard multiple interviews on the topic, and the story from the Bucks' 2013 front office has changed quite a bit over time. I think they pulled that pick right out of their butt. I also call bullscalito on the idea that the Hawks were going to pick Antetokounmpo at 17 if the Bucks didn't take him at 15. I think the Freak was dropping to the second round if the Bucks didn't pick him.

To be fair, many scouts hated Anthony Bennett at the time, and there was not a clear cut #1 pick in that draft, but Antetokounmpo dropped to #15?

If the 2014 draft was redrafted today, Gary Harris might be the second pick. He was thought of so highly (sarcasm intended) in 2014 that he was picked 19, and was traded to the Nuggets that night.

The 2015 draft which came as close as a draft can reasonably get to the top players going early in the draft, also had the overrated Duke star of the moment Jahlil Okafor at #3. And Montresz Harrell was taken with the second pick of the second round, and he is one of the five best players to come out of that draft at this point in his career.

I think certain players have a higher probability of success than other players, but there are no "can't miss" prospects, and I don't see anything with Zion that would put him ahead of "can't miss" prospects of the past. This isn't the 1980's when the first picks were seasoned players like future HoFers Magic, Olajuwon and Ewing, or even future all-stars like Derrick Coleman and Glenn Robinson. From 1979 to 1994, only 1 of 16 overall #1 picks never made an all-star team (Pervis Ellison), and he was pretty good but had injury issues. In the 18 drafts since 2000, 7 of the overall #1 picks (Kwame Brown, Bargnani, Oden, Bennett, Wiggins, Fultz, Ayton) have not made an all-star team, and only one of those (Ayton) is likely to change that fact.
 

the Q

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Antetokounmpo was the 15th pick of the 2013 draft, and I think there is about a 75% chance that neither the Bucks GM or Director of Player of Personnel had seen him play prior to selecting him. I have read and heard multiple interviews on the topic, and the story from the Bucks' 2013 front office has changed quite a bit over time. I think they pulled that pick right out of their butt. I also call bullscalito on the idea that the Hawks were going to pick Antetokounmpo at 17 if the Bucks didn't take him at 15. I think the Freak was dropping to the second round if the Bucks didn't pick him.

To be fair, many scouts hated Anthony Bennett at the time, and there was not a clear cut #1 pick in that draft, but Antetokounmpo dropped to #15?

If the 2014 draft was redrafted today, Gary Harris might be the second pick. He was thought of so highly (sarcasm intended) in 2014 that he was picked 19, and was traded to the Nuggets that night.

The 2015 draft which came as close as a draft can reasonably get to the top players going early in the draft, also had the overrated Duke star of the moment Jahlil Okafor at #3. And Montresz Harrell was taken with the second pick of the second round, and he is one of the five best players to come out of that draft at this point in his career.

I think certain players have a higher probability of success than other players, but there are no "can't miss" prospects, and I don't see anything with Zion that would put him ahead of "can't miss" prospects of the past. This isn't the 1980's when the first picks were seasoned players like future HoFers Magic, Olajuwon and Ewing, or even future all-stars like Derrick Coleman and Glenn Robinson. From 1979 to 1994, only 1 of 16 overall #1 picks never made an all-star team (Pervis Ellison), and he was pretty good but had injury issues. In the 18 drafts since 2000, 7 of the overall #1 picks (Kwame Brown, Bargnani, Oden, Bennett, Wiggins, Fultz, Ayton) have not made an all-star team, and only one of those (Ayton) is likely to change that fact.
Giannis was super raw but ridiculously athletic. Even on draft night the analysts said many scouts told him he could have the highest ceiling of any player in the draft. He was projected to go about 11-17.

I was excited when Danny traded up, and crushed when he took Kelly. I wanted freak or Gobert.

But the path to a guy like freak is ridiculously narrow. Like this is his 1% path. Most paths for guys like him are probably more like Bruno, who was the infamous two years away from 2 years away guy.
 

nelsonmuntz

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Giannis was super raw but ridiculously athletic. Even on draft night the analysts said many scouts told him he could have the highest ceiling of any player in the draft. He was projected to go about 11-17.

I was excited when Danny traded up, and crushed when he took Kelly. I wanted freak or Gobert.

But the path to a guy like freak is ridiculously narrow. Like this is his 1% path. Most paths for guys like him are probably more like Bruno, who was the infamous two years away from 2 years away guy.
I do not believe you when you say you wanted the Freak in 2013. I am a Bucks fan, and I thought it was a completely wasted pick at the time. He was playing in the Greek B League. His height was listed anywhere from 6'7 to 6'9, and even the most optimistic draft analysts called him a huge project. He had played at around 6'6 in the Greek league the season before, so he was growing rapidly as he was drafted. Even the people who liked the pick didn't expect him to contribute for 3-4 years.

He had played in exactly one tournament where there were any meaningful number of NBA scouts, three weeks before the 2013 draft, so i doubt any draft analyst was able to opine on the Freak's "ceiling" with any authority at all. Even his agent has mocked the Greek league the Freak played in, observing that some of the players would smoke cigarettes in the gym during breaks. Some analysts couldn't even spell his name right.

Giannis Adetokoubo | NBADraft.net

Grading the 2013 Draft Grades | Milwaukee Bucks

2013 NBA draft grades: Pick-by-pick analysis

These websites all gave "B" grades to the Bucks, which if you look at the rest of the grades, is pretty bad. Most teams got B+ or better grades.

The Bucks picked a kid off a few grainy Betamax quality videos, and they got insanely lucky.

Anthony Bennett was the first pick in the draft that year. Where is he now?
 
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I do not believe you when you say you wanted the Freak in 2013. I am a Bucks fan, and I thought it was a completely wasted pick at the time. He was playing in the Greek B League. His height was listed anywhere from 6'7 to 6'9, and even the most optimistic draft analysts called him a huge project. He had played at around 6'6 in the Greek league the season before, so he was growing rapidly as he was drafted. Even the people who liked the pick didn't expect him to contribute for 3-4 years.

He had played in exactly one tournament where there were any meaningful number of NBA scouts, three weeks before the 2013 draft, so i doubt any draft analyst was able to opine on the Freak's "ceiling" with any authority at all. Even his agent has mocked the Greek league the Freak played in, observing that some of the players would smoke cigarettes in the gym during breaks. Some analysts couldn't even spell his name right.

Giannis Adetokoubo | NBADraft.net

Grading the 2013 Draft Grades | Milwaukee Bucks

2013 NBA draft grades: Pick-by-pick analysis

These websites all gave "B" grades to the Bucks, which if you look at the rest of the grades, is pretty bad. Most teams got B+ or better grades.

The Bucks picked a kid off a few grainy Betamax quality videos, and they got insanely lucky.

Anthony Bennett was the first pick in the draft that year. Where is he now?
It's not hard to find, pull up any mock draft from 2013 and you're going to find a paragraph below about Giannis having one of the highest ceilings in the draft
 

nelsonmuntz

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It's not hard to find, pull up any mock draft from 2013 and you're going to find a paragraph below about Giannis having one of the highest ceilings in the draft
So you are arguing everyone knew Antetokounmpo would be this good? You run with that. It is also not hard, since I just did it, to pull up draft grades from the 2013 draft where the Bucks get one of the poorer grades of any team in the draft. "High ceiling" is another way of draft analysts saying the guy will probably suck but they are hedging their bets just in case he makes an all-star team.

It is also not that hard to come up with mock drafts from virtually any year since they have been posted on the Internet where multiple players are projected to be the next greatest player in NBA history. This year is Zion's turn. I like Zion and think he has a lot of potential. His height is an issue to play the 4, and I don't know if he has the handle or shooting to be a starter at wing in the NBA. The one issue that I have with Zion is the comparisons to Charles Barkley, which happens anytime an undersized but super physical PF comes along. There has been one Charles Barkley in NBA history. I don't know if I would count on another. FWIW, Shaq and Barkley are not sold on Zion either.
 
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So you are arguing everyone knew Antetokounmpo would be this good? You run with that. It is also not hard, since I just did it, to pull up draft grades from the 2013 draft where the Bucks get one of the poorer grades of any team in the draft. "High ceiling" is another way of draft analysts saying the guy will probably suck but they are hedging their bets just in case he makes an all-star team.

It is also not that hard to come up with mock drafts from virtually any year since they have been posted on the Internet where multiple players are projected to be the next greatest player in NBA history. This year is Zion's turn. I like Zion and think he has a lot of potential. His height is an issue to play the 4, and I don't know if he has the handle or shooting to be a starter at wing in the NBA. The one issue that I have with Zion is the comparisons to Charles Barkley, which happens anytime an undersized but super physical PF comes along. There has been one Charles Barkley in NBA history. I don't know if I would count on another. FWIW, Shaq and Barkley are not sold on Zion either.
No I'm saying the idea that he was a 2nd rounder if the Bucks passed on him is crazy. And the idea that nobody actually bothered to scout him is equally as crazy.

I have no idea what Zion has anything to do with this conversation, I wouldn't take Zion #1 so not sure what you're trying to prove
 

the Q

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So you are arguing everyone knew Antetokounmpo would be this good? You run with that. It is also not hard, since I just did it, to pull up draft grades from the 2013 draft where the Bucks get one of the poorer grades of any team in the draft. "High ceiling" is another way of draft analysts saying the guy will probably suck but they are hedging their bets just in case he makes an all-star team.

It is also not that hard to come up with mock drafts from virtually any year since they have been posted on the Internet where multiple players are projected to be the next greatest player in NBA history. This year is Zion's turn. I like Zion and think he has a lot of potential. His height is an issue to play the 4, and I don't know if he has the handle or shooting to be a starter at wing in the NBA. The one issue that I have with Zion is the comparisons to Charles Barkley, which happens anytime an undersized but super physical PF comes along. There has been one Charles Barkley in NBA history. I don't know if I would count on another. FWIW, Shaq and Barkley are not sold on Zion either.
I feel like you didn’t read a single thing I said about Greek freak, minus one small part that you addressed earlier.

It’s unlikely he would’ve become this good, that’s why he was projected late lottery, early post lottery, but it was known he had some of the highest upside in the entire draft.

2013 was also considered a weak draft. Lots of surprises.
 

nelsonmuntz

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No I'm saying the idea that he was a 2nd rounder if the Bucks passed on him is crazy. And the idea that nobody actually bothered to scout him is equally as crazy.

I have no idea what Zion has anything to do with this conversation, I wouldn't take Zion #1 so not sure what you're trying to prove
This thread has morphed into a discussion of Zion Williamson's potential, and I challenged the premise that he will be a future superstar. This is an easy premise to challenge given draft "expert's" track record on picking future superstars. That is why I brought up several recent drafts, including 2013.

Staying on the Bucks, Khris Middleton was a second round pick and played in the D League before making an all-star team this season. Brogdan was a second round pick and won rookie of the year. On the other hand, the Bucks have had 8 first round picks in the Top 10 since 2001, and none of them ever made an all-star team. So are the Bucks geniuses for their brilliant second round picks, or do they suck for their lousy first round picks?

Or is projecting how 18-21 year old kids will perform in the NBA really, really hard?
 
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This thread has morphed into a discussion of Zion Williamson's potential, and I challenged the premise that he will be a future superstar. This is an easy premise to challenge given draft "expert's" track record on picking future superstars. That is why I brought up several recent drafts, including 2013.

Staying on the Bucks, Khris Middleton was a second round pick and played in the D League before making an all-star team this season. Brogdan was a second round pick and won rookie of the year. On the other hand, the Bucks have had 8 first round picks in the Top 10 since 2001, and none of them ever made an all-star team. So are the Bucks geniuses for their brilliant second round picks, or do they suck for their lousy first round picks?

Or is projecting how 18-21 year old kids will perform in the NBA really, really hard?
And none of this has anything to do with the fact that you're objectively wrong that the Bucks had never seen him play and that he was a 2nd round pick if the Bucks didn't take him.
 

nelsonmuntz

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And none of this has anything to do with the fact that you're objectively wrong that the Bucks had never seen him play and that he was a 2nd round pick if the Bucks didn't take him.
I said there was a 75% chance that neither the GM or Director of Player Personnel had seen Antetokounmpo play. I stick by that.

There is no way to prove that Antetokounmpo wouldn't have been a 2nd round pick if the Bucks didn't pick him, because, well, the Bucks picked him. Other than maybe the Hawks at 17, I also can't find any evidence before December 2014 of any GM saying they were seriously looking at him if the Bucks didn't take him, and even that article was just the usual butt-covering leaks from front office personnel that are worried about getting canned for missing the next star.

Exactly ONE mock draft immediately before draft night in 2013 had the Freak in the Top 14, and that draft also called him "Adetokunbo". Not exactly a ringing endorsement of that writer's knowledge.

Consensus Mock Draft: Noel not a lock at No. 1
 
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I said there was a 75% chance that neither the GM or Director of Player Personnel had seen Antetokounmpo play. I stick by that.

There is no way to prove that Antetokounmpo wouldn't have been a 2nd round pick if the Bucks didn't pick him, because, well, the Bucks picked him. Other than maybe the Hawks at 17, I also can't find any evidence before December 2014 of any GM saying they were seriously looking at him if the Bucks didn't take him, and even that article was just the usual butt-covering leaks from front office personnel that are worried about getting canned for missing the next star.

Exactly ONE mock draft immediately before draft night in 2013 had the Freak in the Top 14, and that draft also called him "Adetokunbo". Not exactly a ringing endorsement of that writer's knowledge.

Consensus Mock Draft: Noel not a lock at No. 1
Every single mock had him going between 13 and 17 that year, someone would have taken him in the 1st.

And about them "misspelling":

The Adetokunbos had four more sons, all born in Greece, including Giannis on Dec. 6, 1994. (Antetokounmpo became Giannis’ surname after it was spelled that way on his Greek passport instead of his birth name of Adetokunbo.)
 

nelsonmuntz

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Every single mock had him going between 13 and 17 that year, someone would have taken him in the 1st.

And about them "misspelling":

The Adetokunbos had four more sons, all born in Greece, including Giannis on Dec. 6, 1994. (Antetokounmpo became Giannis’ surname after it was spelled that way on his Greek passport instead of his birth name of Adetokunbo.)
I just provided you a link of every mock draft. One had him at 10, none of the others had him in the Top 14. Moving on.
 
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I just provided you a link of every mock draft. One had him at 10, none of the others had him in the Top 14. Moving on.
You provided a link to mocks that cut off conveniently where Giannis was being mocked by all those sites. He was a consensus 1st rounder

Giannis at 16
2013 NBA Mock Draft: Last Minute Picks and Predictions

Giannis at 15
2013 Mock Draft | NBADraft.net

Giannis at 22
The common-sense 2013 NBA mock draft

Giannis at 19

Chris Mannix: 2013 NBA Mock Draft 6.0

Giannis at 17
WalterFootball.com: 2013 NBA Mock Draft
 

nelsonmuntz

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You provided a link to mocks that cut off conveniently where Giannis was being mocked by all those sites. He was a consensus 1st rounder

Giannis at 16
2013 NBA Mock Draft: Last Minute Picks and Predictions

Giannis at 15
2013 Mock Draft | NBADraft.net

Giannis at 22
The common-sense 2013 NBA mock draft

Giannis at 19

Chris Mannix: 2013 NBA Mock Draft 6.0

Giannis at 17
WalterFootball.com: 2013 NBA Mock Draft
I have completely run out of gas on this argument and your thread hijack. I went through a bit of your posting history, and you basically do this to every thread you are in, so this is my last response to you on this topic. My point was that one of this year's MVP finalists was a flier in the 2013 draft and a lucky pick by the Bucks, because projecting 18-21 year old kids' NBA future is really, really hard. Your point is that you wanted to see if you could take a thread off the rails by personally attacking a poster, and you were successful for about a page. Congrats.
 
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Nelson - Back to ZION
You said:
"This thread has morphed into a discussion of Zion Williamson's potential, and I challenged the premise that he will be a future superstar. This is an easy premise to challenge given draft "expert's" track record on picking future superstars. That is why I brought up several recent drafts, including 2013.

Or is projecting how 18-21 year old kids will perform in the NBA really, really hard?"

Of course it is hard, we have every sports draft and years of history so no need to prove this.

But you've twisted the argument. Because we say 'can't miss = he will be a future superstar, you then argue that lots of potential future superstars don't make it. But absent the literal meaning, there is a colloquial 'can't miss' definition. This is different than 'future superstars' or any analysis of annual drafts pre and post rankings thereof. You've admitted the last definitive 'can't miss" was AD, there's an argument that Ben Simmons was as well but I think he falls short as he had the 'can't shoot' label (far more specific than can't miss) so BS had detractors/negatives.
This is also different than consensus number 1's like Fultz or KAT (picking from both sides of spectrum)

Historically I can name the can't miss guys like AD, Duncan, LeBron but possibly in retrospect 'can't miss' changes if the guy does miss even slightly (Dwight Howard?).

We are subjectively evaluating human beings ability to play basketball over a long period of time, so I find it to be a disingenuous devil's advocate position to say there's no such thing as can't miss because human variables in drafting and draftees affect these humans.

In 40+ years of watching hoops the closest 'can't miss' guys I can think of that arguably 'missed' are Billy Owens, Joe Smith and sadly Len Bias.

Zion is going to be a superstar in so much as we can predict what will happen to athletes within a reasonable confidence interval. If Zion ends up being Rodney Rogers I guess you'll be one of a scant few on I told you so island celebrating.
 

nelsonmuntz

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Nelson - Back to ZION
You said:
"This thread has morphed into a discussion of Zion Williamson's potential, and I challenged the premise that he will be a future superstar. This is an easy premise to challenge given draft "expert's" track record on picking future superstars. That is why I brought up several recent drafts, including 2013.

Or is projecting how 18-21 year old kids will perform in the NBA really, really hard?"

Of course it is hard, we have every sports draft and years of history so no need to prove this.

But you've twisted the argument. Because we say 'can't miss = he will be a future superstar, you then argue that lots of potential future superstars don't make it. But absent the literal meaning, there is a colloquial 'can't miss' definition. This is different than 'future superstars' or any analysis of annual drafts pre and post rankings thereof. You've admitted the last definitive 'can't miss" was AD, there's an argument that Ben Simmons was as well but I think he falls short as he had the 'can't shoot' label (far more specific than can't miss) so BS had detractors/negatives.
This is also different than consensus number 1's like Fultz or KAT (picking from both sides of spectrum)

Historically I can name the can't miss guys like AD, Duncan, LeBron but possibly in retrospect 'can't miss' changes if the guy does miss even slightly (Dwight Howard?).

We are subjectively evaluating human beings ability to play basketball over a long period of time, so I find it to be a disingenuous devil's advocate position to say there's no such thing as can't miss because human variables in drafting and draftees affect these humans.

In 40+ years of watching hoops the closest 'can't miss' guys I can think of that arguably 'missed' are Billy Owens, Joe Smith and sadly Len Bias.

Zion is going to be a superstar in so much as we can predict what will happen to athletes within a reasonable confidence interval. If Zion ends up being Rodney Rogers I guess you'll be one of a scant few on I told you so island celebrating.
Slow down. I am not saying he will be a flop, I am just saying that he is not a "can't miss" prospect. And you are wrong, there are multiple "can't miss" prospects in every draft. The analysts might not use exactly those words, but they hype up half a dozen prospects in every draft. Zion is no different than any of the recent over-hyped prospects. Maybe he will be good, maybe he won't.

1-2 players from each draft class end up in the Hall of Fame. The only way Zion will live up to the current hype is if he ends up in the Hall of Fame. We will know in about 3 seasons if he has a chance to do that.
 
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Slow down. I am not saying he will be a flop, I am just saying that he is not a "can't miss" prospect. And you are wrong, there are multiple "can't miss" prospects in every draft. The analysts might not use exactly those words, but they hype up half a dozen prospects in every draft. Zion is no different than any of the recent over-hyped prospects. Maybe he will be good, maybe he won't.

1-2 players from each draft class end up in the Hall of Fame. The only way Zion will live up to the current hype is if he ends up in the Hall of Fame. We will know in about 3 seasons if he has a chance to do that.
There aren't 1-2 can't miss projects by my definition and everyone but yours. The problem I have is you unjustifiable broaden optimistic draft views (these will always exist, do you follow college recruiting?!) and you incorrectly define can't miss. Show me articles or mentions of guys as can't miss? Maybe there is an occasional accolade thrown out with qualifiers. For example; "Ben Simmons cannot shoot and may never be a good shooter, but he is a can't miss prospect at the PG position." - Jay Bilas, filling air time during 4hr draft TV show.
But consensus can't miss guys are extremely rare & this whole stupid debate is you throwing water on everyone BECAUSE EVERYONE IS SO UNPRECEDENTEDLY HIGH ON ZION! The basis of your point is so many people are so high on Zion versus other annually highly ranked/valued draft prospects = your objection almost defines the difference between future superstar billing vs can't miss.

Ultimately it is semantics. Instead let's identify Zion as a pre-draft 'generational talent'. LeBron is/was a generational talent before the draft as was AD. No one since on a pre-draft basis. Giannis is discussed in this thread as he emerged as a generational talent after the draft, as some athletes do (Tom Brady).
Nothing is guaranteed, even LeBron (I was skeptical cuz I dislike high school to pros). Zion has the potential to be a generational talent, is THE consensus number 1, barring injury almost certain future as an all-star and multiple all-NBA team selections. HOF is a museum in the distant future. To live up to his hype Zion has to play basketball very well, dominate games, contend for and or win ROY, championships, MVPs etc..
 

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