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[QUOTE="REB1094, post: 4838800, member: 12147"]
I don't think the argument should be "is every 1st round/lottery pick a valuable NBA player right now?". It should be "how many of the best players in the NBA are first round/lottery picks?". That is a better judge of if being a first round pick [B]really [/B]correlates to NBA success

I'm a little bored this morning, so I looked up the best player (imo) of every team in the playoff/play-in picture right now - 
[LIST]
[*]Average draft pick: 11.6
[*]Lottery picks: 70%
[*]First round picks: 90% (2 exceptions: Jalen Brunson and Nikola Jokic)
[/LIST]
Last 10 MVPs (removed duplicates so this goes all the way back to 2008 Kobe) - 
[LIST]
[*]Average draft pick: 9.0
[*]Lottery picks: 80%
[*]First round picks: 90% (1 exception - Jokic)
[/LIST]
Last 10 Finals MVPs (also removed duplicates so goes back to 2008 Paul Pierce) - 
[LIST]
[*]Average draft pick: 12.2
[*]Lottery picks: 70%
[*]First round picks: 90% (1 exception - Jokic)
[/LIST]
Last year's All Stars (including injury replacements) - 
[LIST]
[*]Average draft pick: 8.7
[*]Lottery picks: 85%
[*]First round picks: 96% (1 exception - Jokic)
[/LIST]
High correlation
[/QUOTE]

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