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[QUOTE="nelsonmuntz, post: 4838416, member: 833"]
It is that complicated.  Some teams tie up 5 to 7 years or more of massive cap dollars waiting for a player to maybe develop, and for every 1 and done that makes it, 10 don't and just burn dollars and time.

Further, while there has been some accuracy with the top pick or two (although nowhere close to what it was 30 years ago), the whole draft turns into a crapshoot pretty quickly.  Whoever used Giannis as part of his logic for how 1 and dones are great should stop posting about basketball or logic.  That draft was a horror show, with top players coming from all over the draft.  That happens quite a bit now, because one and dones are very hard to evaluate.  So what is the benefit of a high draft pick in a world of 1 and dones if the 5th pick is not significantly more likely to be a star than the 15th pick?

Or, an NBA GM could just wait for free agency or trade the picks rather than waste millions on 19 year olds who are likely to flame out.  Look at the last few offseasons.  More and more NBA GMs are choosing this path.
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