Mysteries of the 1 vs. 2 seed match up in Elite 8

[DobbsRover2]

Every year the fans of many top 8 or so teams expend huge amounts of phlegm castigating the unfairness of the match up their team got in the #1 or #2 seed spot, but then two weeks later it turns out that the pairing did not work out for an Elite 8 showdown. One or both teams are gone, and now maybe the fans of a top team are worrying about the hot upstart like a Louisville that has caught fire in the Tourney.

Generally you need to be in the top 5 seeds to have a shot at an E8 spot, but in the last ten years, 11-seed Gonzaga in 2011, 6-seeds Purdue and Arizona State in 2009, and 7-seed Mississippi in 2007 have beat the odds. And the 1 versus 2 seed match ups have half mattered, since in 50% of the cases in the last 10 years have involved E8 match ups of the top two teams. Oddly in two years all four E8 games were #1 versus #2 (2008 and 2012) in two years there were three of those pairings (2005 and 2011), in two years it was split two and two (2006 and 2013), in two year there was only one (2007 and 2014), and in two years there were 0 (2009 and 2010). So in the last two years, less than half the E8 matches have pitted the top two seeds against each other, with ND always getting its 2 seed partners, and UConn getting KY in 2013.

If any seed has looked especially good for Elite 8 runs the last two years, it is the 2-seeds, 6 of whom have made it through the first three games, while only 4 of the #1 seeds have, with UConn and ND accounting for all of them. The other E8 teams in the last two years have included two 3-seeds, three 4-seeds, and one 5-seed (Louisville of course).

So nothing can be said for sure about what will happen after the seeds are set, and now we have a new wrinkle with the Coaches poll rating Maryland ahead of South Carolina. But if the last two years are any indication, who the third and fourth #1 seeds are won't matter by the time the Elite 8 games roll around.

 

[cockhrnleghrn]

Every year the fans of many top 8 or so teams expend huge amounts of phlegm castigating the unfairness of the match up their team got in the #1 or #2 seed spot, but then two weeks later it turns out that the pairing did not work out for an Elite 8 showdown. One or both teams are gone, and now maybe the fans of a top team are worrying about the hot upstart like a Louisville that has caught fire in the Tourney.

Generally you need to be in the top 5 seeds to have a shot at an E8 spot, but in the last ten years, 11-seed Gonzaga in 2011, 6-seeds Purdue and Arizona State in 2009, and 7-seed Mississippi in 2007 have beat the odds. And the 1 versus 2 seed match ups have half mattered, since in 50% of the cases in the last 10 years have involved E8 match ups of the top two teams. Oddly in two years all four E8 games were #1 versus #2 (2008 and 2012) in two years there were three of those pairings (2005 and 2011), in two years it was split two and two (2006 and 2013), in two year there was only one (2007 and 2014), and in two years there were 0 (2009 and 2010). So in the last two years, less than half the E8 matches have pitted the top two seeds against each other, with ND always getting its 2 seed partners, and UConn getting KY in 2013.

If any seed has looked especially good for Elite 8 runs the last two years, it is the 2-seeds, 6 of whom have made it through the first three games, while only 4 of the #1 seeds have, with UConn and ND accounting for all of them. The other E8 teams in the last two years have included two 3-seeds, three 4-seeds, and one 5-seed (Louisville of course).

So nothing can be said for sure about what will happen after the seeds are set, and now we have a new wrinkle with the Coaches poll rating Maryland ahead of South Carolina. But if the last two years are any indication, who the third and fourth #1 seeds are won't matter by the time the Elite 8 games roll around.

I can't see Maryland getting the 3rd number 1 seed. If they get a number 1 seed, I think it will definitely be the 4th one and they will be banished to St, Helena Island (Spokane). UCONN will definitely be in Albany and USC/ND will be a coin flip between GSO and OKC.

 

[Fightin Choke]

Every year the fans of many top 8 or so teams expend huge amounts of phlegm castigating the unfairness of the match up their team got in the #1 or #2 seed spot, but then two weeks later it turns out that the pairing did not work out for an Elite 8 showdown. One or both teams are gone, and now maybe the fans of a top team are worrying about the hot upstart like a Louisville that has caught fire in the Tourney.

Generally you need to be in the top 5 seeds to have a shot at an E8 spot, but in the last ten years, 11-seed Gonzaga in 2011, 6-seeds Purdue and Arizona State in 2009, and 7-seed Mississippi in 2007 have beat the odds. And the 1 versus 2 seed match ups have half mattered, since in 50% of the cases in the last 10 years have involved E8 match ups of the top two teams. Oddly in two years all four E8 games were #1 versus #2 (2008 and 2012) in two years there were three of those pairings (2005 and 2011), in two years it was split two and two (2006 and 2013), in two year there was only one (2007 and 2014), and in two years there were 0 (2009 and 2010). So in the last two years, less than half the E8 matches have pitted the top two seeds against each other, with ND always getting its 2 seed partners, and UConn getting KY in 2013.

If any seed has looked especially good for Elite 8 runs the last two years, it is the 2-seeds, 6 of whom have made it through the first three games, while only 4 of the #1 seeds have, with UConn and ND accounting for all of them. The other E8 teams in the last two years have included two 3-seeds, three 4-seeds, and one 5-seed (Louisville of course).

So nothing can be said for sure about what will happen after the seeds are set, and now we have a new wrinkle with the Coaches poll rating Maryland ahead of South Carolina. But if the last two years are any indication, who the third and fourth #1 seeds are won't matter by the time the Elite 8 games roll around.

These statistics are interesting. I had no idea that the 1 vs. 2 pairings in the E8 were so rare, as it seemed to me that ND always had to face the 1 or 2 seed in the past 4 years. Turns out, my memory was correct. In 2011, ND was the 2 and had to play 1-seed Tennessee. In 2012, ND was the 1 and had to play 2-seed Maryland. In 2013, ND was the 1 and had to play 2-seed Duke. And in 2014, ND was the only 1-seed that had to play a 2-seed (Baylor). So it seems that being in ND's bracket pretty much guarantees a top seed will make the E8. At least in 2001, 1-seed ND only had to face 3-seed Vanderbilt. Anyway, Tennessee fans shouldn't feel too bad if they don't get sent to Spokane, as they are pretty much guaranteed an E8 spot if they're sent to Greensboro.

 

[DobbsRover2]

These statistics are interesting. I had no idea that the 1 vs. 2 pairings in the E8 were so rare, as it seemed to me that ND always had to face the 1 or 2 seed in the past 4 years. Turns out, my memory was correct. In 2011, ND was the 2 and had to play 1-seed Tennessee. In 2012, ND was the 1 and had to play 2-seed Maryland. In 2013, ND was the 1 and had to play 2-seed Duke. And in 2014, ND was the only 1-seed that had to play a 2-seed (Baylor). So it seems that being in ND's bracket pretty much guarantees a top seed will make the E8. At least in 2001, 1-seed ND only had to face 3-seed Vanderbilt. Anyway, Tennessee fans shouldn't feel too bad if they don't get sent to Spokane, as they are pretty much guaranteed an E8 spot if they're sent to Greensboro.

Yeah, going back I saw that ND is like a magnet that regularly attracts the other top seed in the E8 game in the Irish good years. I guess that's what they mean by the luck of the Irish, in this case bad luck unless you think it's good luck to get stronger competition.

The Huskies have had a slightly more mixed bag during the 2000s. They have been usually a #1 seed but also sometimes a #2 seed in 14 of the 15 years (in 2005 they were a #3 seed and lost in the Sweet 16). In 7 of those 14 years they've gone to the Elite 8 and matched up against the other top seed (a #2 in all cases except 2006 when they lost to #1 seed Duke), 5 times against a #3 seed, and once each against a #6 seed (2006 against Arizona St.) and once against a #7 seed (2002 against Old Dominion when no one wanted to play UConn). But most years the Huskies can be pretty confident of getting the #2 or #3 seed in the region final.

 

[UcMiami]

Interesting stuff and not all that surprising. Usually WCBB has two or three really dominant teams and then a pool of 10-15 teams that are good but highly inconsistent - and on any given night in a single elimination tournament funny things can happen. ND and Uconn have been the standard bearers for consistent play when they are good. I would put Stanford in that consistent category as well.
And Louisville deserves a nod for getting hot at the right time as they have surprised more than I think any other school in recent memory.