My theory on the future of college sports regarding pay for play, NIL, etc. | The Boneyard
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My theory on the future of college sports regarding pay for play, NIL, etc.

shizzle787

King Shizzle DCCLXXXVII of the Cesspool
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1) I don't think the NCAA is going to disappear. I do believe that players will get paid after the lawsuit goes through the Supreme Court in a regulated but free-market system. What that is I don't know.

2) The NCAA will have four Divisions- 1, 2, 3, 4. Division 1 will be the only division where you will have to pay players in all sports. The bigger schools will keep the minimum required sports to thin the herd. There will be a minimum wage of sorts that every school will have to play every student athlete.

3) The NCAA tournament will remain in its current format but the larger conferences will get a much larger share of the pie.

4) The result of #2 and #3 will be a major thinning of the herd. IMO, the Ivy League and service academies will drop to Division 2. I also think a lot of other private schools and smaller state schools will bite the bullet as well.

5) The Power 5 + Big East will survive as Division 1 leagues. I don't see any of the 80 schools in these leagues dropping out (including Notre Dame, Duke, Northwestern, Stanford, or any of the other major private institutions). Some may reduce the number of sports they offer, but they will stay Division 1.

6) Division 1 will be left with 150-200 schools. Gonzaga, most of the Atlantic 10, and most of the MWC and AAC will pay players. There will be other schools outside of those leagues that remain. Liberty is a school that comes to mind. I think 12-14 conferences will survive.

7) FBS will thin as well. The 69 P5 schools will remain. I do think UConn will stay up and pay for football. The other schools to make the cut include most of the schools in the MW and AAC and Liberty. In the end, I think 90-100 schools will play major college football.
 
Curious what makes you think the Big East would be included in this hypothetical? If the P5 breaks off its because of football and the Big East brings zero value there
 
Curious what makes you think the Big East would be included in this hypothetical? If the P5 breaks off its because of football and the Big East brings zero value there
There won't be a break off because of football- it will be because schools will have to pay players. That is what will determine if you are Division 1 or not on the basketball and football side. I don't think the major conferences and schools want to ruin March Madness- they just want a larger share of the pie.
 
1. In a free market system most of the players wouldn't get more than they're already getting unless they would convert the tuition/R&B & $5k stipend into salary.

Unless you mean something else by free market system. Most of these teams are subsidized by the university and other students. So I'm assuming that fact counts in this "free market."
 

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